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Validity of a risk-prediction tool for hospital mortality: the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Pieper, KS; Gore, JM; FitzGerald, G; Granger, CB; Goldberg, RJ; Steg, G; Eagle, KA; Anderson, FA; Budaj, A; Fox, KAA ...
Published in: Am Heart J
June 2009

BACKGROUND: The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk model provides a simple method for determining the probability of hospital death in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The aim of this study was to explore the impact of modeling techniques on the risk model when generating predictions. METHODS: Patients with ACS (n = 48,023) with or without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) were enrolled (123 hospitals, 14 countries) between April 1999 and June 2006. The original GRACE model did not include terms to account for possible differences in outcomes between patients with STEMI, non-STEMI, and unstable angina, nor did it account for changing risk across continuous measures. RESULTS: In this cohort, the influence on outcome of region of hospitalization and cardiac arrest at presentation changed over the 7-year study. Other interactions included previous percutaneous coronary intervention and age with type of ACS. However, these interactions were insufficient to affect the final risk score. The same variables as in the original score comprise the new score. Inclusion of nonlinearity and differential effects did little to change the model's discrimination but influenced predictions for patients at extremes of risk. CONCLUSIONS: Irrespective of the inclusion of nonlinear and interaction terms, the updated GRACE risk model provides an excellent means to discriminate risk of death in patients with ACS and can be used as a simple nomogram to estimate risk in patients seen in clinical practice.

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Published In

Am Heart J

DOI

EISSN

1097-6744

Publication Date

June 2009

Volume

157

Issue

6

Start / End Page

1097 / 1105

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Treatment Outcome
  • Risk Assessment
  • Registries
  • Prognosis
  • Nomograms
  • Models, Cardiovascular
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Hospital Mortality
 

Citation

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Pieper, K. S., Gore, J. M., FitzGerald, G., Granger, C. B., Goldberg, R. J., Steg, G., … Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) Investigators, . (2009). Validity of a risk-prediction tool for hospital mortality: the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events. Am Heart J, 157(6), 1097–1105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ahj.2009.04.004
Pieper, Karen S., Joel M. Gore, Gordon FitzGerald, Christopher B. Granger, Robert J. Goldberg, Gabriel Steg, Kim A. Eagle, et al. “Validity of a risk-prediction tool for hospital mortality: the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events.Am Heart J 157, no. 6 (June 2009): 1097–1105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ahj.2009.04.004.
Pieper KS, Gore JM, FitzGerald G, Granger CB, Goldberg RJ, Steg G, et al. Validity of a risk-prediction tool for hospital mortality: the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events. Am Heart J. 2009 Jun;157(6):1097–105.
Pieper, Karen S., et al. “Validity of a risk-prediction tool for hospital mortality: the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events.Am Heart J, vol. 157, no. 6, June 2009, pp. 1097–105. Pubmed, doi:10.1016/j.ahj.2009.04.004.
Pieper KS, Gore JM, FitzGerald G, Granger CB, Goldberg RJ, Steg G, Eagle KA, Anderson FA, Budaj A, Fox KAA, Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) Investigators. Validity of a risk-prediction tool for hospital mortality: the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events. Am Heart J. 2009 Jun;157(6):1097–1105.
Journal cover image

Published In

Am Heart J

DOI

EISSN

1097-6744

Publication Date

June 2009

Volume

157

Issue

6

Start / End Page

1097 / 1105

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Treatment Outcome
  • Risk Assessment
  • Registries
  • Prognosis
  • Nomograms
  • Models, Cardiovascular
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Hospital Mortality