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Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems

Publication ,  Journal Article
Keeney, RL; Winterfeldt, DV
Published in: IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management
1991
Published version (DOI)

A formal elicitation process is summarized to obtain probabilities from experts in a large-scale study involving nuclear safety. A first expert elicitation, using primarily in-house experts and staff members of the project team was strongly criticized in peer review. Subsequently, many changes in the process and procedures were made including training experts in making probability judgments, providing assistance in decomposing judgments, formally eliciting probabilities in individual sessions, and documenting the results. Approximately 1000 probability distributions were assessed from about 40 experts from universities, consulting firms, and national laboratories. This second elicitation was much better received by peer review. Based on this experience, a comprehensive process to elicit probability judgments is outlined in detail.

Duke Scholars

Ralph L. Keeney
Author Ralph L. Keeney Fuqua School of Business
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Published In

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

DOI

10.1109/17.83752

Publication Date

1991

Volume

38

Issue

3

Start / End Page

191 / 201

Related Subject Headings

  • Business & Management
  • 46 Information and computing sciences
  • 40 Engineering
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 09 Engineering
  • 08 Information and Computing Sciences
 

Citation

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Keeney, R. L., & Winterfeldt, D. V. (1991). Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 38(3), 191–201. https://doi.org/10.1109/17.83752
Keeney, R. L., and D. V. Winterfeldt. “Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems.” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 38, no. 3 (1991): 191–201. https://doi.org/10.1109/17.83752.
Keeney RL, Winterfeldt DV. Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management. 1991;38(3):191–201.
Keeney, R. L., and D. V. Winterfeldt. “Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems.” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, vol. 38, no. 3, 1991, pp. 191–201. Scival, doi:10.1109/17.83752.
Keeney RL, Winterfeldt DV. Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management. 1991;38(3):191–201.

Published In

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management

DOI

10.1109/17.83752

Publication Date

1991

Volume

38

Issue

3

Start / End Page

191 / 201

Related Subject Headings

  • Business & Management
  • 46 Information and computing sciences
  • 40 Engineering
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 09 Engineering
  • 08 Information and Computing Sciences