Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment

Dealing with uncertainty is an important and difficult aspect of analyses for complex systems. Such systems involve many uncertainties, and assessing probabilities to represent these uncertainties is itself a complex undertaking utilizing a variety of information sources. At a very basic level, uncertainty is uncertainty, and attempting to distinguish between 'types of uncertainty' is questionable. At a practical level, on the other hand, a close look at such distinctions suggests that they are driven by important modelling issues related to model structuring, probability assessment, information gathering, and sensitivity analysis. Anything that brings more attention to these issues should improve the state of the art. However, I would prefer to attack the issues directly instead of working indirectly through the notion of 'types of uncertainty.' © 1996 Elsevier Science Limited.

Duke Scholars

Author Robert L. Winkler Fuqua School of Business