The use of probabilities in forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures.
Subjective probabilistic temperature forecasting is studied. Alternative summary measures of a forecaster's probability distribution of temperature are considered, and 'credible intervals' are suggested as a suitable choice for operational forecasts of this continuous variable. An experiment involving the formulation of variable-width and fixed-width credible interval forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures by U.S. National Weather Service forecasters is discussed. The experimental results indicated that experienced forecasters can formulate reliable and skilful credible interval temperature forecasts. It is important to note that these successful probabilistic temperature forecasts were prepared without the aid of objective probabilistic guidance information. from Authors
