On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis
Publication
, Journal Article
Winkler, RL; Cummings, LL
Published in: Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
January 1, 1972
Four methods of arriving at a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis are described (weighted-average, natural-conjugate, feedback and reassessment, and group reassessment). The weighted-average and natural-conjugate methods are compared empirically in probability choice and generation models. The use of the weighted-average method was more frequent and its use increased in the presence of high variance among experts' judgments. The cognitive abilities, tolerances for ambiguity, and risk-taking propensities of the subjects were not related to their choices of a consensus distribution. Implications for future research are drawn. © 1972.
Duke Scholars
Published In
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
DOI
ISSN
0030-5073
Publication Date
January 1, 1972
Volume
7
Issue
1
Start / End Page
63 / 76
Citation
APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Winkler, R. L., & Cummings, L. L. (1972). On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 7(1), 63–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(72)90007-4
Winkler, R. L., and L. L. Cummings. “On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 7, no. 1 (January 1, 1972): 63–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(72)90007-4.
Winkler RL, Cummings LL. On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 1972 Jan 1;7(1):63–76.
Winkler, R. L., and L. L. Cummings. “On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, vol. 7, no. 1, Jan. 1972, pp. 63–76. Scopus, doi:10.1016/0030-5073(72)90007-4.
Winkler RL, Cummings LL. On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 1972 Jan 1;7(1):63–76.
Published In
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
DOI
ISSN
0030-5073
Publication Date
January 1, 1972
Volume
7
Issue
1
Start / End Page
63 / 76