Skip to main content
Journal cover image

A prognostic model for patients with end-stage liver disease.

Publication ,  Conference
Cooper, GS; Bellamy, P; Dawson, NV; Desbiens, N; Fulkerson, WJ; Goldman, L; Quinn, LM; Speroff, T; Landefeld, CS
Published in: Gastroenterology
October 1997

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Survival of patients with end-stage liver disease is variable and difficult to predict. A two-phase prospective cohort study was conducted at five teaching hospitals to develop and evaluate a model for prediction of death. METHODS: Five hundred thirty-eight hospitalized patients with a history of chronic liver disease and two or more signs of decompensation were studied. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of death was 30% at 30 days and 50% at 6 months. In 295 patients in phase I, time till death was independently associated (P < 0.01) with five factors measured on study day 3: renal insufficiency, cognitive dysfunction, ventilatory insufficiency, age > or = 65 years, and prothrombin time > or = 16 seconds. These risk factors stratified 243 patients in phase II into three groups with cumulative incidences of death at 30 days of 12%, 40%, and 74%, respectively. Integration of the prognostic model with physicians' predictions led to improved estimates of the probability of death. Although performance of liver transplantation after study entry was independently associated with enhanced survival, the intensity of other acute therapies was not. CONCLUSIONS: Five risk factors were associated with the risk of death in patients with end-stage liver disease and provided a quantitative basis to complement physicians' prognostic estimates.

Duke Scholars

Altmetric Attention Stats
Dimensions Citation Stats

Published In

Gastroenterology

DOI

ISSN

0016-5085

Publication Date

October 1997

Volume

113

Issue

4

Start / End Page

1278 / 1288

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Time Factors
  • Survival Rate
  • Sex Characteristics
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Prognosis
  • Probability
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Models, Statistical
  • Middle Aged
  • Medical Records
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Cooper, G. S., Bellamy, P., Dawson, N. V., Desbiens, N., Fulkerson, W. J., Goldman, L., … Landefeld, C. S. (1997). A prognostic model for patients with end-stage liver disease. In Gastroenterology (Vol. 113, pp. 1278–1288). United States. https://doi.org/10.1053/gast.1997.v113.pm9322523
Cooper, G. S., P. Bellamy, N. V. Dawson, N. Desbiens, W. J. Fulkerson, L. Goldman, L. M. Quinn, T. Speroff, and C. S. Landefeld. “A prognostic model for patients with end-stage liver disease.” In Gastroenterology, 113:1278–88, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1053/gast.1997.v113.pm9322523.
Cooper GS, Bellamy P, Dawson NV, Desbiens N, Fulkerson WJ, Goldman L, et al. A prognostic model for patients with end-stage liver disease. In: Gastroenterology. 1997. p. 1278–88.
Cooper, G. S., et al. “A prognostic model for patients with end-stage liver disease.Gastroenterology, vol. 113, no. 4, 1997, pp. 1278–88. Pubmed, doi:10.1053/gast.1997.v113.pm9322523.
Cooper GS, Bellamy P, Dawson NV, Desbiens N, Fulkerson WJ, Goldman L, Quinn LM, Speroff T, Landefeld CS. A prognostic model for patients with end-stage liver disease. Gastroenterology. 1997. p. 1278–1288.
Journal cover image

Published In

Gastroenterology

DOI

ISSN

0016-5085

Publication Date

October 1997

Volume

113

Issue

4

Start / End Page

1278 / 1288

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Time Factors
  • Survival Rate
  • Sex Characteristics
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Prognosis
  • Probability
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Models, Statistical
  • Middle Aged
  • Medical Records