Impact of impaired fasting glucose on cardiovascular disease: the Framingham Heart Study.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether impaired fasting glucose (IFG) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. BACKGROUND: It is unclear which glucose threshold should define prediabetes. We compared the 1997 and 2003 American Diabetes Association (ADA) definitions of IFG to predict CVD. METHODS: Framingham offspring participants free of CVD, categorized by the 1997 ADA IFG definition (fasting plasma glucose 110 to 125 mg/dl; 6.1 to 6.9 mmol/l) or the 2003 definition (100 to 125 mg/dl; 5.6 to 6.9 mmol/l), were followed from 1983 to 2004. Pooled logistic regression was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD; 291 events) or CVD (423 events). RESULTS: Four-year CHD event rates among women were 1.3% (100 to 109 mg/dl), 2.3% (110 to 125 mg/dl), and 2.9% (diabetes); whereas corresponding rates in men were 2.9%, 3.0%, and 8.7%. For the 2003 IFG definition, the OR for CHD among women was 1.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0 to 3.0, p = 0.048), whereas for the 1997 IFG definition, the OR for CHD in women was 2.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.4, p = 0.02), which was almost as high as for women with diabetes (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2 to 5.2, p = 0.01). For CVD, only the 1997 IFG definition yielded significantly greater odds of CVD in women (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.6, p = 0.01). Men were not at increased odds of developing CVD or CHD by either definition. CONCLUSIONS: In women, both IFG definitions were associated with increased CHD risk, whereas neither IFG definition identified men at increased short-term risk for CHD or CVD. The finding that women with FPG 110 to 125 mg/dl had similar CHD risk compared with women with diabetes suggests that CHD risk in women may be elevated at a lower glucose level than for men.

Duke Scholars

Author Michael J Pencina Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics