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Prognostic model predicting metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer survival in men treated with second-line chemotherapy.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Halabi, S; Lin, C-Y; Small, EJ; Armstrong, AJ; Kaplan, EB; Petrylak, D; Sternberg, CN; Shen, L; Oudard, S; de Bono, J; Sartor, O
Published in: J Natl Cancer Inst
November 20, 2013

BACKGROUND: Several prognostic models for overall survival (OS) have been developed and validated in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) who receive first-line chemotherapy. We sought to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict OS in men who had progressed after first-line chemotherapy and were selected to receive second-line chemotherapy. METHODS: Data from a phase III trial in men with mCRPC who had developed progressive disease after first-line chemotherapy (TROPIC trial) were used. The TROPIC was randomly split into training (n = 507) and testing (n = 248) sets. Another dataset consisting of 488 men previously treated with docetaxel (SPARC trial) was used for external validation. Adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator selected nine prognostic factors of OS. A prognostic score was computed from the regression coefficients. The model was assessed on the testing and validation sets for its predictive accuracy using the time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). RESULTS: The nine prognostic variables in the final model were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, time since last docetaxel use, measurable disease, presence of visceral disease, pain, duration of hormonal use, hemoglobin, prostate specific antigen, and alkaline phosphatase. The tAUCs for this model were 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.72 to 0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI = 0.68 to 0.72) for the testing and validation sets, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A prognostic model of OS in the postdocetaxel, second-line chemotherapy, mCRPC setting was developed and externally validated. This model incorporates novel prognostic factors and can be used to provide predicted probabilities for individual patients and to select patients to participate in clinical trials on the basis of their prognosis. Prospective validation is needed.

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Published In

J Natl Cancer Inst

DOI

EISSN

1460-2105

Publication Date

November 20, 2013

Volume

105

Issue

22

Start / End Page

1729 / 1737

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Treatment Outcome
  • Taxoids
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Prostatic Neoplasms, Castration-Resistant
  • Prostate-Specific Antigen
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prognosis
  • Prednisone
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Pain
 

Citation

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Halabi, S., Lin, C.-Y., Small, E. J., Armstrong, A. J., Kaplan, E. B., Petrylak, D., … Sartor, O. (2013). Prognostic model predicting metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer survival in men treated with second-line chemotherapy. J Natl Cancer Inst, 105(22), 1729–1737. https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djt280
Halabi, Susan, Chen-Yen Lin, Eric J. Small, Andrew J. Armstrong, Ellen B. Kaplan, Daniel Petrylak, Cora N. Sternberg, et al. “Prognostic model predicting metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer survival in men treated with second-line chemotherapy.J Natl Cancer Inst 105, no. 22 (November 20, 2013): 1729–37. https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djt280.
Halabi S, Lin C-Y, Small EJ, Armstrong AJ, Kaplan EB, Petrylak D, et al. Prognostic model predicting metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer survival in men treated with second-line chemotherapy. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2013 Nov 20;105(22):1729–37.
Halabi, Susan, et al. “Prognostic model predicting metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer survival in men treated with second-line chemotherapy.J Natl Cancer Inst, vol. 105, no. 22, Nov. 2013, pp. 1729–37. Pubmed, doi:10.1093/jnci/djt280.
Halabi S, Lin C-Y, Small EJ, Armstrong AJ, Kaplan EB, Petrylak D, Sternberg CN, Shen L, Oudard S, de Bono J, Sartor O. Prognostic model predicting metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer survival in men treated with second-line chemotherapy. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2013 Nov 20;105(22):1729–1737.

Published In

J Natl Cancer Inst

DOI

EISSN

1460-2105

Publication Date

November 20, 2013

Volume

105

Issue

22

Start / End Page

1729 / 1737

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Treatment Outcome
  • Taxoids
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Prostatic Neoplasms, Castration-Resistant
  • Prostate-Specific Antigen
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prognosis
  • Prednisone
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Pain