Scholars@Duke
Brian Murray

Brian Murray

Research Professor in the Division of Environmental Social Systems
Environmental Social Systems
brian.murray@duke.edu
Box 90467, Durham, NC 27708
140 Science Drive, Gross Hall, Ste 101 Box 90467, Durham, NC 27708

Selected Publications

Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy

Report · November 15, 2024 Electricity demand growth has accelerated significantly, a trend that is expected to continue for at least the next 5 to 10 years and is driven by new technologies such as data centers and the expansion of the manufacturing and industrial base in the Unite ... Open Access Link to item Cite

Carrots, Sticks, and the Evolution of U.S. Climate Policy

Journal Article Texas A&M Law Review · May 2024 The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), enacted by Congress in 2022, is the most significant federal investment in decarbonization in U.S. history. The law makes hundreds of billions of dollars available for clean energy tax credits, grants to state and ... Full text Open Access Cite

Projecting Electricity-Sector Investments Under the Inflation Reduction Act: New Cost Assumptions and Interactions with EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Proposal

Report · December 4, 2023 Energy Pathways USA, an initiative of the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability at Duke University, has released a report that offers new insights into US energy transition investments. This report comprehensively models the intersect ... Open Access Link to item Cite

Coalition Stability in PJM: Exploring the Consequences of State Defection from the Wholesale Market

Report · November 28, 2022 Using a simulation tool, the authors investigate the effects created by a US state defecting from the wholesale electricity market in PJM, an organized electric grid in the eastern United States, on the states that remain in the coalition. The report finds ... Open Access Link to item Cite

Automated Extraction of Energy Systems Information from Remotely Sensed Data: A Review and Analysis

Journal Article Applied Energy · November 15, 2022 High quality energy systems information is a crucial input to energy systems research, modeling, and decision-making. Unfortunately, actionable information about energy systems is often of limited availability, incomplete, or only accessible for a substant ... Full text Cite

Pathways to Net-Zero for the US Energy Transition

Report · November 4, 2022 What will it take to achieve a net-zero carbon emissions footprint for the US economy by 2050? This report from Energy Pathways USA helps strengthen the evidence base on what will be required for a robust US energy transition and elucidates key barriers an ... Open Access Link to item Cite

A 21st Century Low-Carbon Transition in U.S. Electric Power: Extent, Contributing Factors, and Implications

Journal Article Review of Policy Research · May 1, 2020 The U.S. electric power sector has experienced a substantial shift of the generation mix since the turn of the century, moving from heavy reliance on coal-powered generation to one drawing more from natural gas and, more recently, renewables. This transiti ... Full text Cite

Incentivizing the reduction of pollution at U.S. dairies: Addressing additionality when multiple environmental credit payments are combined

Journal Article Journal of Agriculture Food Systems and Community Development · March 9, 2020 This article examines the intricacies of environmental credit generation from concentrated animal feeding operation (CAFO) farm systems. Livestock production generates large amounts of manure (solid and liquid waste) and consumes a high volume of water tha ... Full text Cite

Potential Implications of Groundwater Trading and Reformed Water Rights in Diamond Valley, Nevada

Journal Article Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management · June 1, 2019 This paper presents an ex ante analysis of a novel groundwater management reform being considered by irrigators in the Diamond Valley, Nevada. Groundwater extraction for irrigation in the valley has considerably exceeded the natural recharge rate since the ... Full text Cite

Electric sector policy, technological change, and U.S. emissions reductions goals: Results from the EMF 32 model intercomparison project

Journal Article Energy Economics · June 1, 2018 The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 32 study compares a range of coordinated scenarios to explore implications of U.S. climate policy options and technological change on the electric power sector. Harmonized policy scenarios (including mass-based emissions lim ... Full text Cite

Effects of technology assumptions on US power sector capacity, generation and emissions projections: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Project.

Journal Article Energy economics · January 2018 This paper is one of two syntheses in this special issue of the results of the EMF 32 power sector study. This paper focuses on the effects of technology and market assumptions with projections out to 2050. A total of 15 models contributed projections base ... Full text Cite

Near-Term Pathways for Achieving Forest and Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in the U.S.

Journal Article Climate · September 1, 2017 U.S. forests and agriculture present unique opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. U.S. forests currently remove a large amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year and store it as a terrestrial carbon sink, a trend th ... Full text Cite

Boulding, Kenneth

Chapter · March 27, 2017 Cite

Pigouvian taxes

Chapter · March 27, 2017 Cite

Biogas in the United States: estimating future production and learning from international experiences

Journal Article Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · March 1, 2017 The substitution of biogas, an energy source derived from biological feedstock, for fossil natural gas (NG) can mitigate the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, making it an attractive renewable energy source in a carbon-constrained future. Alt ... Full text Cite

Ecosystem service concepts in practice

Journal Article Canadian Public Policy · November 1, 2016 Economists have long embraced the idea that services provided by nature have inherent economic value. Ecologists, other scientists, and many in the environmental advocacy community have more recently come to focus on the connection between natural systems ... Full text Cite

What is the fuel of the future? Prospects under the Clean Power Plan

Journal Article Energy Economics · November 1, 2016 EPA proposed the Clean Power Plan (CPP) to regulate CO2 emissions from existing power plants. The CPP establishes state-by-state emission rate goals for affected fossil units, largely existing coal and natural gas combined cycle generators. A ke ... Full text Cite

Benefits, Costs, and Distributional Impacts of a Groundwater Trading Program in the Diamond Valley, Nevada

Report · October 17, 2016 In Nevada’s Diamond Valley, unsustainable groundwater pumping has decreased the aquifer’s water level, raising irrigators’ pumping costs and threatening the viability of existing wells and springs. Continued extraction in excess of natural recharge will tr ... Open Access Link to item Cite

Increasing Emissions Certainty under a Carbon Tax

Report · October 13, 2016 To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, some groups have proposed that the United States consider use of a carbon tax. But whether the nation will achieve a specific emissions goal is uncertain because the economy’s response to such a tax is uncertain. Ultimat ... Open Access Link to item Cite

Alternative approaches for addressing non-permanence in carbon projects: an application to afforestation and reforestation under the Clean Development Mechanism

Journal Article Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · January 1, 2016 Afforestation and reforestation (A/R) projects generate greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction credits by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through biophysical processes and storing it in terrestrial carbon stocks. One feature of A/R activities is the po ... Full text Cite

Do protected areas reduce blue carbon emissions? A quasi-experimental evaluation of mangroves in Indonesia

Journal Article Ecological Economics · November 1, 2015 Mangroves provide multiple ecosystem services such as blue carbon sequestration, storm protection, and unique habitat for species. Despite these services, mangroves are being lost at rapid rates around the world. Using the best available biophysical and so ... Full text Cite

British Columbia's revenue-neutral carbon tax: A review of the latest "grand experiment" in environmental policy

Journal Article Energy Policy · November 1, 2015 In 2008, British Columbia implemented the first comprehensive and substantial carbon tax in North America. By 2012, the tax had reached a level of C$30/t CO2, and it covers about three-quarters of all greenhouse gas emissions in the province. Th ... Full text Cite

Why have greenhouse emissions in RGGI states declined? An econometric attribution to economic, energy market, and policy factors

Scholarly Edition · September 1, 2015 The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a consortium of northeastern U.S. states that limit carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation through a regional emissions trading program. Since RGGI started in 2009, regional emissions have shar ... Full text Cite

Regulating existing power plants under the U.S. Clean Air Act: Present and future consequences of key design choices

Journal Article Energy Policy · August 1, 2015 In June 2014, the U.S. EPA released its proposed rules to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from existing fossil fuel power plants, triggering considerable debate on the proposal's design and its environmental and economic consequences. One question not ad ... Full text Cite

The Clean Power Plan: Implications of Three Compliance Decisions for U.S. States

Report · May 16, 2015 The proposed Clean Power Plan gives U.S. states flexibility in how they attain state-level carbon dioxide emissions rate goals from existing power plants. This analysis uses the Dynamic Integrated Economy/Energy/Emissions Model to illuminate the implicatio ... Open Access Link to item Cite

Assessing Impacts of the Clean Power Plan on Southeast States

Report · May 15, 2015 The proposed Clean Power Plan gives U.S. states flexibility in how they attain state-level carbon dioxide emissions rate goals from existing power plants. This analysis explores the potential impact of the proposed CPP on Southeast states across a range of ... Open Access Link to item Cite

Enhancing Compliance Flexibility under the Clean Power Plan: A Common Elements Approach to Capturing Low-Cost Emissions Reductions

Report · March 16, 2015 As states and stakeholders evaluate compliance options under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Clean Power Plan, many recognize the potential economic benefits of market-based strategies. In some states, however, market approaches trigger ... Open Access Link to item Cite

How effective are us renewable energy subsidies in cutting greenhouse gases?

Journal Article American Economic Review · January 1, 2014 Full text Cite

Harnessing the financial value of coastal ‘blue’ carbon

Chapter · January 1, 2014 Coastal habitats worldwide are under increasing threat of destruction from human activities including farming, aquaculture, wood harvest, fishing, tourism, marine operations and real estate development. This loss of habitat carries with it the loss of crit ... Full text Cite

Pigouvian Taxes

Chapter · January 1, 2014 Cite

Boulding, Kenneth

Chapter · January 1, 2014 Cite

Considering "Coastal Carbon" in Existing U.S. Federal Statutes and Policies

Journal Article Coastal Management · September 1, 2013 Coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses provide important ecosystem services, including nursery habitat for fish, shoreline protection, and the recently recognized service of carbon sequestration and storage. When these wetland e ... Full text Cite

Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth

Journal Article Energy Policy · June 1, 2013 We investigate the impacts of the U.S. renewable fuel standard (RFS2) and several alternative biofuel policy designs on global GHG emissions from land use change and agriculture over the 2010-2030 horizon. Analysis of the scenarios relies on GLOBIOM, a glo ... Full text Cite

Where is the carbon? carbon sequestration potential from private forestland in the southern United States

Journal Article Journal of Forestry · January 29, 2013 Uncertainty surrounding the future supply of timber in the southern United States prompted the question, "Where is all the wood?" (Cubbage et al. 1995). We ask a similar question about the potential of southern forests to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emis ... Full text Cite

Economics of Forest Carbon Sequestration as a Climate Change Mitigation Strategy

Chapter · January 1, 2013 Forest ecosystems remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and convert it to organic carbon (C) stored in terrestrial pools of biomass, soil, and residues. This process lowers atmospheric CO2 concentrations, thereby mitigating ... Full text Cite

An Emissions-Intensity Approach For Crediting Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Agriculture: Reconciling climate and food security objectives in the developing world

Chapter · January 1, 2013 An OBO accounting scheme can potentially contribute to agricultural productivity improvement goals, sustainable development in rural communities, and reduced-carbon agriculture in the developing world. If implemented at a global scale, it is possible that ... Full text Cite

Implications of alternative agricultural productivity growth assumptions on land management, greenhouse gas emissions, and mitigation potential

Journal Article American Journal of Agricultural Economics · January 1, 2013 Future productivity growth in agriculture is necessary to satisfy rising food, fiber and bio-energy demands, and to contribute to global environmental objectives, including greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Conventional logic suggests that improved producti ... Full text Cite

Economics: Mangroves' hidden value

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · November 1, 2012 Full text Cite

Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

Journal Article PloS one · January 2012 Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversi ... Full text Cite

A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · September 2011 Using forests to mitigate climate change has gained much interest in science and policy discussions. We examine the evidence for carbon benefits, environmental and monetary costs, risks and trade-offs for a variety of activities in three general strategies ... Full text Cite

Carbon allowance auction design: An assessment of options for the United States

Journal Article Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · January 1, 2011 Carbon allowance auctions are a component of existing and proposed regional cap-and-trade programs in the United States and are also included in recent proposed bills in the U.S. Congress that would establish a national cap-and-trade program to regulate gr ... Full text Cite

A synthesis of the science on forests and carbon for U.S. Forests

Journal Article Issues in Ecology · November 23, 2010 Forests play an important role in the U.S. and global carbon cycle, and carbon sequestered by U.S. forest growth and harvested wood products currently offsets 12-19% of U.S. fossil fuel emissions. The cycle of forest growth, death, and regeneration and the ... Cite

Valuing ecosystem services from wetlands restoration in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Journal Article Ecological Economics · March 15, 2010 This study assesses the value of restoring forested wetlands via the U.S. government's Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley by quantifying and monetizing ecosystem services. The three focal services are greenhouse gas (GHG) mit ... Full text Open Access Cite

Set-asides can be better climate investment than corn ethanol.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · March 2009 Although various studies have shown that corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuel use, many of these studies fail to include how land-use history affects the net carbon balance through changes in soil carbon content. We ... Full text Cite

Balancing cost and emissions certainty: An allowance reserve for cap-and-trade

Journal Article Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · January 1, 2009 Full text Open Access Cite

Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: A review of data and methods

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · June 1, 2008 Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively ... Full text Cite

Public land, timber harvests, and climate mitigation: Quantifying carbon sequestration potential on U.S. public timberlands

Journal Article Forest Ecology and Management · March 20, 2008 Scientists and policy makers have long recognized the role that forests can play in countering the atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas (GHG). In the United States, terrestrial carbon sequestration in private and public ... Full text Cite

Permanence discounting for land-based carbon sequestration

Journal Article Ecological Economics · February 1, 2008 One major concern regarding land-based carbon sequestration involves the issue of permanence. Sequestration may not last forever and may either be released in the future or require expenditures to maintain the practices that keep it sequestered. In this pa ... Full text Cite

Insights from EMF-associated agricultural and forestry greenhouse gas mitigation studies

Journal Article · January 1, 2007 Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) as employed by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) generally involves a multi-sector appraisal of greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) mitigation alternatives and climate change effects, typically at the global level. Such a mult ... Full text Cite

Economic consequences of consideration of permanence, leakage and additionality for soil carbon sequestration projects

Journal Article Climatic Change · January 1, 2007 This paper introduces, explains, and describes methods for addressing the issues of permanence, leakage, and additionality (PLA) of agricultural soil carbon sequestration (ASCS) activities at the project level. It is important to cast these as project-leve ... Full text Cite

Methane and nitrous oxide mitigation in agriculture

Journal Article Energy Journal · November 22, 2006 This analysis presents cost estimates for mitigating nitrous oxide from cropland soils, and methane from livestock enteric fermentation, manure management and rice cultivation for major world regions. Total estimated global mitigation potential is approxim ... Cite

Trading water for carbon with biological carbon sequestration.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · December 2005 Carbon sequestration strategies highlight tree plantations without considering their full environmental consequences. We combined field research, synthesis of more than 600 observations, and climate and economic modeling to document substantial losses in s ... Full text Cite

Water quality co-effects of greenhouse gas mitigation in U.S. agriculture

Journal Article Climatic Change · August 1, 2005 This study develops first-order estimates of water quality co-effects of terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offset strategies in U.S. agriculture by linking a national level agricultural sector model (ASMGHG) to a national level water quality model ... Full text Cite

Tax interaction effects, environmental regulation, and "rule of thumb" adjustments to social cost

Journal Article Environmental and Resource Economics · January 1, 2005 Preexisting distortions in factor markets complicate the estimation of the social welfare effects of regulatory interventions. The existence of these tax interaction effects (TIEs) suggests that general equilibrium (GE) approaches should be used to evaluat ... Full text Cite

Econometric studies of non-industrial private forest management: A review and synthesis

Journal Article Forest Policy and Economics · January 1, 2005 Forest policies and management increasingly rely on economic models to explain behaviors of landowners and to project forest outputs, inventories and land use. However, it is unclear whether the existing econometric models offer general conclusions concern ... Full text Cite

Forest forecasts: Does individual heterogeneity matter for market and landscape outcomes?

Journal Article Forest Policy and Economics · June 1, 2004 Recent econometric analyses have shown that timber supply choices reflect heterogeneous preferences for amenities and management of forests in the US South. However, this evidence is insufficient to determine whether timber market models that rely on conve ... Full text Cite

Federal timber restrictions, interregional spillovers, and the impact on US softwood markets

Journal Article Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · January 1, 2004 An econometric model of the US softwood lumber and timber markets is estimated and used to simulate the price, trade, and welfare effects of reductions in federal timber sales in the western US commencing in the late 1980s. Results indicate that the timber ... Full text Cite

Estimating leakage from forest carbon sequestration programs

Journal Article Land Economics · January 1, 2004 Leakage from forest carbon sequestration -the amount of a program's direct carbon benefits undermined by carbon releases elsewhere-depends critically on demanders' ability to substitute non-reserved timber for timber targeted by the program. Analytic, econ ... Full text Cite

How joint is joint forest production? An econometric analysis of timber supply conditional on endogenous amenity values

Journal Article Forest Science · January 1, 2002 In search of ways to enhance and sustain the flow of services from forests, policy makers in the public and private sectors look to forest sector models to project future forest uses. A major shortcoming of these models is a timber supply specification tha ... Full text Cite

Economic Effects of Post-Harvest Treatment Requirements for Oysters

Journal Article Agricultural and Resource Economics Review · 2002 Cite

Estimating price compensation requirements for eco-certified forestry

Journal Article Ecological Economics · February 3, 2001 Eco-certified forestry (ECF) is defined as forest management that incorporates ecological concerns into commercial timber production. In this paper, we link the adoption of ECF practices to shifts in the timber supply function. We use a spatially disaggreg ... Full text Cite

Carbon values, reforestation, and 'perverse' incentives under the Kyoto Protocol: An empirical analysis

Journal Article Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · November 11, 2000 Economic incentives for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in forests may be an effective way to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (KP). But concerns have been raised that the KP may create unint ... Full text Cite

Carbon sinks in the Kyoto Protocol: Potential relevance for US forests

Journal Article Journal of Forestry · September 1, 2000 The international agreement known as the Kyoto Protocol seeks to reduce the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases to mitigate the threat of global climate change. It contains provisions for including carbon stock changes from forests and land-use c ... Cite

Federal timber restrictions and interregional arbitrage in U.S. lumber

Journal Article Land Economics · January 1, 1998 Harvesting restrictions to protect the habitat of the northern spotted owl on federal forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) substantially reduced timber available for processing by the forest products industry. We consider the extent to which these restri ... Full text Cite

Exit from the meatpacking industry: A microdata analysis

Journal Article American Journal of Agricultural Economics · January 1, 1998 We model the determinants of plant exit from the cattle-slaughter industry using probit to distinguish between plant-level (e.g., age, scale, and scope) and market-level (e.g., market share, concentration, and competitive fringe) factors. Market variables ... Full text Cite

Oligopsony, vertical integration, and output substitution: welfare effects in US pulpwood markets

Journal Article Land Economics · January 1, 1995 Oligopsonistic commodity markets can induce upstream vertical integration by the input demanders. The associated price distortion can also induce output substition by the commodity's suppliers. These phenomena are considered in the context of pulpwood mark ... Full text Cite

Measuring oligopsony power with shadow prices: US markets for pulpwood and sawlogs

Journal Article Review of Economics Statistics · January 1, 1995 Empirical estimation of input market power is hindered by problems in measuring an input's value of marginal product (VMP). By estimating a variable profit function system, however, one can infer a factor's VMP through its shadow price. This technique is u ... Full text Cite

Productivity growth and price trends in the North American sawmilling industries: an inter-regional comparison

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · January 1, 1994 This paper applies nonparametric superlative index techniques to measure productivity growth in the sawmilling industries of the US and Canada. Six geographic regions are examined: British Columbia (Coast and Interior), Ontario, Quebec, US South, and US We ... Full text Cite

Floristic and structural composition of hanglip forest in the soutpansberg, northern transvaal

Journal Article South African Forestry Journal · January 1, 1993 The closed, evergreen forest of 363 ha was sampled by means of 62 circular plots of 0, 04 ha, distributed in a grid pattern. TWINSPAN classification separated the forest into regrowth forest with two forest types, and mature forest with four forest types. ... Full text Cite

Mariner IV Photography of Mars: Initial Results.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · August 1965 The 22 photographs of Mars taken by Mariner IV have been successfully received on earth. The Martian surface photographed is rather densely populated with impact craters whose sizes range up to at least 120 kilometers in diameter. We infer that the visible ... Full text Cite

Balancing Cost and Emissions Certainty: An Allowance Reserve for Cap-and-Trade

Scholarly Edition On efficiency grounds, the economics community has to date tended to emphasize price-based policies to address climate change -- such as taxes or a "safety-valve" price ceiling for cap-and-trade -- while environmental advocates have sought a more clear qua ... Cite