James S. Clark

Journal Article Ecology letters · September 2024 The fundamental trade-off between current and future reproduction has long been considered to result in a tendency for species that can grow large to begin reproduction at a larger size. Due to the prolonged time required to reach maturity, estimates of tr ... Full text Cite

Remotely sensed crown nutrient concentrations modulate forest reproduction across the contiguous United States.

Journal Article Ecology · August 2024 Global forests are increasingly lost to climate change, disturbance, and human management. Evaluating forests' capacities to regenerate and colonize new habitats has to start with the seed production of individual trees and how it depends on nutrient acces ... Full text Cite

Leveraging relationships between species abundances to improve predictions and inform conservation

Journal Article Journal of Applied Ecology · July 1, 2024 Many management and conservation contexts can benefit from understanding relationships between species abundances, which can be used to improve predictions of species occurrence and abundance. We present conditional prediction as a tool to capture informat ... Full text Cite

Disturbance sensitivity shapes patterns of tree species distribution in Afrotropical lowland rainforests more than climate or soil.

Journal Article Ecology and evolution · May 2024 Understanding how tropical forests respond to abiotic environmental changes is critical for preserving biodiversity, mitigating climate change, and maintaining ecosystem services in the coming century. To evaluate the relative roles of the abiotic environm ... Full text Cite

Beyond variance: simple random distributions are not a good proxy for intraspecific variability in systems with environmental structure

Journal Article Peer Community Journal · January 1, 2024 The role of intraspecific variability (IV) in shaping community dynamics and species coexistence has been intensively discussed over the past decade and modelling studies have played an important role in that respect. However, these studies often implicitl ... Full text Cite

Incorporating intraspecific variation into species responses reveals both their resilience and vulnerability to future climate change

Journal Article Ecography · November 1, 2023 Incorporating intraspecific variation into species responses can improve our understanding of the effects of climate change. However, most studies overlook such variation or model intraspecific groups independently, leading to widely varying estimates at t ... Full text Cite

Mechanistic modeling of climate effects on redistribution and population growth in a community of fish species.

Journal Article Global change biology · November 2023 Understanding community responses to climate is critical for anticipating the future impacts of global change. However, despite increased research efforts in this field, models that explicitly include important biological mechanisms are lacking. Quantifyin ... Full text Cite

How to measure mast seeding?

Journal Article The New phytologist · August 2023 The periodic production of large seed crops, or masting, is a widespread phenomenon in perennial plants. This behavior can enhance the reproductive efficiency of plants, leading to increased fitness, and produce ripple effects on food webs. While variabili ... Full text Cite

The most abundant mammals on Earth.

Journal Article Trends in ecology & evolution · July 2023 New estimates of global mammal abundance that use relationships between traits, estimates of range size, and International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN's) Red List categories to predict the biomass of thousands of species have been developed by ... Full text Cite

Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients.

Journal Article Nature plants · July 2023 The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance bet ... Full text Cite

Habitat–trait interactions that control response to climate change: North American ground beetles (Carabidae)

Journal Article Global Ecology and Biogeography · June 1, 2023 Aim: As one of the most diverse and economically important families on Earth, ground beetles (Carabidae) are viewed as a key barometer of climate change. Recent meta-analyses provide equivocal evidence on abundance changes of terrestrial insects. Generaliz ... Full text Cite

Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees

Journal Article Global Ecology and Biogeography · May 1, 2023 Aim: Our understanding of the mechanisms that maintain forest diversity under changing climate can benefit from knowledge about traits that are closely linked to fitness. We tested whether the link between traits and seed number and seed size is consistent ... Full text Cite

Monitoring small mammal abundance using NEON data: are calibrated indices useful?

Journal Article Journal of Mammalogy · April 1, 2023 Small mammals are important to the functioning of ecological communities with changes to their abundances used to track impacts of environmental change. While capture-recapture estimates of absolute abundance are preferred, indices of abundance continue to ... Full text Cite

Species traits and observer behaviors that bias data assimilation and how to accommodate them.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · April 2023 Datasets that monitor biodiversity capture information differently depending on their design, which influences observer behavior and can lead to biases across observations and species. Combining different datasets can improve our ability to identify and un ... Full text Cite

Modeling Community Dynamics Through Environmental Effects, Species Interactions and Movement

Journal Article Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics · March 1, 2023 Understanding how communities respond to environmental change is frustrated by the fact that both species interactions and movement affect biodiversity in unseen ways. To evaluate the contributions of species interactions on community growth, dynamic model ... Full text Cite

Rethinking the nature of intraspecific variability and its consequences on species coexistence.

Journal Article Ecology and evolution · March 2023 Intraspecific variability (IV) has been proposed to explain species coexistence in diverse communities. Assuming, sometimes implicitly, that conspecific individuals can perform differently in the same environment and that IV increases niche overlap, previo ... Full text Cite

Learning from monitoring networks: Few-large vs. many-small plots and multi-scale analysis

Journal Article Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · January 1, 2023 In order to learn about broad scale ecological patterns, data from large-scale surveys must allow us to either estimate the correlations between the environment and an outcome and/or accurately predict ecological patterns. An important part of data collect ... Full text Cite

Age-Related Changes in the Nasopharyngeal Microbiome Are Associated With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection and Symptoms Among Children, Adolescents, and Young Adults.

Journal Article Clin Infect Dis · August 24, 2022 BACKGROUND: Children are less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and typically have milder illness courses than adults, but the factors underlying these age-associated differences are not well understood. The upper respiratory microbiome undergoes substan ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Fishing gear entanglement threatens recovery of critically endangered North Atlantic right whales

Journal Article Conservation Science and Practice · August 1, 2022 North Atlantic right whales frequently become entangled in fishing gear, which can negatively affect their reproductive output and probability of survival. We estimated individual whale health from a hierarchical Bayesian model fit to photographic indices ... Full text Cite

Globally, tree fecundity exceeds productivity gradients.

Journal Article Ecology letters · June 2022 Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows ... Full text Cite

Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery.

Journal Article Nature communications · May 2022 The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worl ... Full text Cite

Distinct Community-Wide Responses to Forecasted Climate Change in Afrotropical Forests

Journal Article Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · January 18, 2022 More refined knowledge of how tropical forests respond to changes in the abiotic environment is necessary to mitigate climate change, maintain biodiversity, and preserve ecosystem services. To evaluate the unique response of diverse Afrotropical forest com ... Full text Open Access Cite

Jointly modeling marine species to inform the effects of environmental change on an ecological community in the Northwest Atlantic.

Journal Article Scientific reports · January 2022 Single species distribution models (SSDMs) are typically used to understand and predict the distribution and abundance of marine fish by fitting distribution models for each species independently to a combination of abiotic environmental variables. However ... Full text Cite

North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · January 2022 Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest ... Full text Cite

Niche Shifts From Trees to Fecundity to Recruitment That Determine Species Response to Climate Change

Journal Article Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · December 23, 2021 Anticipating the next generation of forests requires understanding of recruitment responses to habitat change. Tree distribution and abundance depend not only on climate, but also on habitat variables, such as soils and drainage, and on competition beneath ... Full text Cite

Modeling spatially biased citizen science effort through the eBird database

Journal Article Environmental and Ecological Statistics · September 1, 2021 Citizen science databases are increasing in importance as sources of ecological information, but variability in effort across locations is inherent to such data. Spatially biased data—data not sampled uniformly across the study region—is expected. A furthe ... Full text Cite

Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · August 2021 Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimat ... Full text Cite

Carolina critters: a collection of camera-trap data from wildlife surveys across North Carolina.

Journal Article Ecology · July 2021 Camera trap surveys are useful to understand animal species population trends, distribution, habitat preference, behavior, community dynamics, periods of activity, and species associations with environmental conditions. This information is ecologically imp ... Full text Cite

On the Interpretations of Joint Modeling in Community Ecology.

Journal Article Trends in ecology & evolution · May 2021 Explaining and modeling species communities is more than ever a central goal of ecology. Recently, joint species distribution models (JSDMs), which extend species distribution models (SDMs) by considering correlations among species, have been proposed to i ... Full text Cite

Clustering Species With Residual Covariance Matrix in Joint Species Distribution Models

Journal Article Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · March 9, 2021 Modeling species distributions over space and time is one of the major research topics in both ecology and conservation biology. Joint Species Distribution models (JSDMs) have recently been introduced as a tool to better model community data, by inferring ... Full text Cite

Author Correction: Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects.

Journal Article Nature communications · March 2021 Featured Publication Full text Cite

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects.

Journal Article Nature communications · February 2021 Featured Publication Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and specie ... Full text Cite

Data from: Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Dataset · October 8, 2020 Indirect climate risks for tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-conditions interactions; CCI) are not currently part of models used to anticipate forest regeneration. Yet CCI may be among the most-important mechanisms nee ... Full text Cite

Community Reorganization Response to Climate Change: Species Interactions, State-Space Modeling and Food Webs

Conference International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS) · September 26, 2020 Based on the data collected on the taxonomically diverse communities monitored in NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network), BBS (Breeding Bird Survey) and FIA (Forest Inventory and Analysis), we have forecasted community change and reorganization res ... Full text Cite

Understanding the continuous phenological development at daily time step with a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model: impacts of climate change and extreme weather events

Journal Article Remote Sensing of Environment · September 15, 2020 The impacts of climate change and extreme weather events (e.g. frost-, heat-, drought-, and heavy rainfall events) on the continuous phenological development over the entire seasonal cycle remained poorly understood. Previous studies mainly focused on mode ... Full text Cite

The emergent interactions that govern biodiversity change.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · July 2020 Observational studies have not yet shown that environmental variables can explain pervasive nonlinear patterns of species abundance, because those patterns could result from (indirect) interactions with other species (e.g., competition), and models only es ... Full text Cite

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · May 2020 Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recov ... Full text Cite

Where Resource-Acquisitive Species Are Located: The Role of Habitat Heterogeneity

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · April 28, 2020 Rising temperatures with increased drought pose two challenges for management of future biodiversity. First, are the most vulnerable species concentrated in specific regions and habitats? Second, where can landscape heterogeneity potentially mitigate impac ... Full text Cite

Models for Ecological Data: An Introduction

Book · January 1, 2020 The environmental sciences are undergoing a revolution in the use of models and data. Facing ecological data sets of unprecedented size and complexity, environmental scientists are struggling to understand and exploit powerful new statistical tools for mak ... Cite

Foodwebs based on unreliable foundations: spatiotemporal masting merged with consumer movement, storage, and diet

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · November 1, 2019 Mast-fruiting trees represent a pulsed resource that both supports and destabilizes consumer populations. Whereas a reliable resource is abundant on average and with limited variation in time and space, masting is volatile and localized, and that variabili ... Full text Cite

Microbial communities across nearshore to offshore coastal transects are primarily shaped by distance and temperature.

Journal Article Environmental microbiology · October 2019 Recent studies have focused on linking marine microbial communities with environmental factors, yet, relatively little is known about the drivers of microbial community patterns across the complex gradients from the nearshore to open ocean. Here, we examin ... Full text Cite

Spatiotemporal sensitivity of thermal stress for monitoring canopy hydrological stress in near real-time

Journal Article Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. · May 2019 Monitoring drought in real-time using minimal field data is a challenge for ecosystem management and conservation. Most methods require extensive data collection and in-situ calibration and accuracy is difficult to evaluate. Here, we demonstrated how the s ... Full text Cite

Low-intensity logging and hunting have long-term effects on seed dispersal but not fecundity in Afrotropical forests.

Journal Article AoB PLANTS · February 2019 Hunting and logging, ubiquitous human disturbances in tropical forests, have the potential to alter the ecological processes that govern population recruitment and community composition. Hunting-induced declines in populations of seed-dispersing animals ar ... Full text Open Access Cite

A vignette on model-based quantile regression: Analysing excess zero response

Chapter · January 1, 2019 Quantile regression is widely seen as an ideal tool to understand complex predictor-response relations. Its biggest promise rests in its ability to quantify whether and how predictor effects vary across response quantile levels. But this promise has not be ... Full text Cite

Total C and N Pools and Fluxes Vary with Time, Soil Temperature, and Moisture Along an Elevation, Precipitation, and Vegetation Gradient in Southern Appalachian Forests

Journal Article Ecosystems · December 1, 2018 The interactions of terrestrial C pools and fluxes with spatial and temporal variation in climate are not well understood. We conducted this study in the southern Appalachian Mountains where complex topography provides variability in temperature, precipita ... Full text Cite

Tree water balance drives temperate forest responses to drought.

Journal Article Ecology · November 2018 Intensifying drought is increasingly linked to global forest diebacks. Improved understanding of drought impacts on individual trees has provided limited insight into drought vulnerability in part because tree moisture access and depletion is difficult to ... Full text Cite

Joint Temporal Point Pattern Models for Proximate Species Occurrence in a Fixed Area Using Camera Trap Data

Journal Article Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics · September 1, 2018 The distinction between an overlap in species daily activity patterns and proximate co-occurrence of species for a location and time due to behavioral attraction or avoidance is critical when addressing the question of species co-occurrence. We use data fr ... Full text Cite

Leaf phenology paradox: Why warming matters most where it is already warm

Journal Article Remote Sensing of Environment. · May 2018 Interactions between climate and ecosystem properties that control phenological responses to climate warming and drought are poorly understood. To determine contributions from these interactions, we used space-borne remotely sensed vegetation indices to mo ... Full text Open Access Cite

Associations among arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and seedlings are predicted to change with tree successional status.

Journal Article Ecology · March 2018 Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in the soil may influence tropical tree dynamics and forest succession. The mechanisms are poorly understood, because the functional characteristics and abundances of tree species and AM fungi are likely to be codependent. ... Full text Cite

Temporal coexistence mechanisms contribute to the latitudinal gradient in forest diversity.

Journal Article Nature · October 2017 The tropical forests of Borneo and Amazonia may each contain more tree species diversity in half a square kilometre than do all the temperate forests of Europe, North America, and Asia combined. Biologists have long been fascinated by this disparity, using ... Full text Cite

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: A global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Journal Article Earth System Science Data · September 11, 2017 Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate cha ... Full text Cite

Dynamics of soil CO₂ efflux under varying atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reveal dominance of slow processes.

Journal Article Global change biology · September 2017 We evaluated the effect on soil CO2 efflux (FCO2 ) of sudden changes in photosynthetic rates by altering CO2 concentration in plots subjected to +200 ppmv for 15 years. Five-day intervals of exposure to elevated ... Full text Cite

Biomass prediction using a density-dependent diameter distribution model

Journal Article Annals of Applied Statistics · March 1, 2017 Prediction of aboveground biomass, particularly at large spatial scales, is necessary for estimating global-scale carbon sequestration. Since biomass can be measured only by sacrificing trees, total biomass on plots is never observed. Rather, allometric eq ... Full text Cite

Generalized joint attribute modeling for biodiversity analysis: Median-zero, multivariate, multifarious data

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · February 1, 2017 Probabilistic forecasts of species distribution and abundance require models that accommodate the range of ecological data, including a joint distribution of multiple species based on combinations of continuous and discrete observations, mostly zeros. We d ... Full text Cite

Joint species distribution modeling: Dimension reduction using Dirichlet processes

Journal Article Bayesian Analysis · January 1, 2017 Species distribution models are used to evaluate the variables that affect the distribution and abundance of species and to predict biodiversity. Historically, such models have been fitted to each species independently. While independent models can provide ... Full text Cite

Introduction to drought and US forests: Impacts and potential management responses

Journal Article Forest Ecology and Management · November 15, 2016 Full text Cite

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

Journal Article Nature · November 2016 The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from ... Full text Cite

Predictive models for radial sap flux variation in coniferous, diffuse-porous and ring-porous temperate trees.

Journal Article Tree physiology · August 2016 Accurately scaling sap flux observations to tree or stand levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and by depth into the tree. However, existing models for radial variation in axial sap flux are rarely used because they are d ... Full text Cite

Why species tell more about traits than traits about species: predictive analysis.

Journal Article Ecology · August 2016 Trait analysis aims to understand relationships between traits, species diversity, and the environment. Current methods could benefit from a model-based probabilistic framework that accommodates covariance between traits and quantifies contributions from i ... Full text Cite

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States.

Journal Article Global change biology · July 2016 We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already ... Full text Cite

Forest drought as an emerging research priority.

Journal Article Global change biology · July 2016 Full text Cite

Divergent reproductive allocation trade-offs with canopy exposure across tree species in temperate forests

Journal Article Ecosphere · June 1, 2016 Variation in tree reproduction can alter forest community dynamics, especially if reproductive output is costly for other functions like growth. However, empirical studies reach conflicting conclusions about the constraints on reproductive allocation relat ... Full text Cite

Seed predation and climate impacts on reproductive variation in temperate forests of the southeastern USA.

Journal Article Oecologia · April 2016 Climatic effects on tree recruitment will be determined by the interactive effects of fecundity and seed predation. Evaluating how insect and vertebrate seed predators mediate tree reproductive responses to climate depends on long-term studies of seed prod ... Full text Cite

Modeling change in forest biomass across the eastern US

Journal Article Environmental and Ecological Statistics · March 1, 2016 Predictions of above-ground biomass and the change in above-ground biomass require attachment of uncertainty due the range of reported predictions for forests. Because above-ground biomass is seldom measured, there have been no opportunities to obtain such ... Full text Cite

Joint Modeling of Climate Niches for Adult and Juvenile Trees

Journal Article Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics · March 1, 2016 Typical ecological gradient analysis for plant species considers variation in the response along a gradient of covariate values, for example, temperature or precipitation. Response is customarily modeled through the presence/absence or a suitable measure o ... Full text Cite

Effects of Model Formulation on Estimates of Health in Individual Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis).

Chapter · January 2016 Right whales are vulnerable to many sources of anthropogenic disturbance including ship strikes, entanglement with fishing gear, and anthropogenic noise. The effect of these factors on individual health is unclear. A statistical model using photographic ev ... Full text Cite

Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic

Journal Article Endangered Species Research · January 1, 2016 North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis are among the most endangered of the large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence ... Full text Cite

Health of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis over three decades: From individual health to demographic and population health trends

Journal Article Marine Ecology Progress Series · January 1, 2016 Marine mammals are faced with increasing challenges from environmental fluctuation, climate change, and disturbances from human activities. Anthropogenic mortalities have been well documented, but it is difficult to assess the sub-lethal effects of disturb ... Full text Cite

Multiyear drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in southeastern U.S. forests.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · January 2016 Recent forest diebacks, combined with threats of future drought, focus attention on the extent to which tree death is caused by catastrophic events as opposed to chronic declines in health that accumulate over years. While recent attention has focused on l ... Full text Cite

Multiyear drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in southeastern U.S. forests

Journal Article Ecological Applications · January 1, 2016 Recent forest diebacks, combined with threats of future drought, focus attention on the extent to which tree death is caused by catastrophic events as opposed to chronic declines in health that accumulate over years. While recent attention has focused on l ... Full text Cite

Stochastic Modeling for Velocity of Climate Change

Journal Article Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics · September 23, 2015 The velocity of climate change is defined as an instantaneous rate of change needed to maintain a constant climate. It is developed as the ratio of the temporal gradient of climate change over the spatial gradient of climate change. Ecologically, understan ... Full text Cite

Prevalence and strength of density-dependent tree recruitment.

Journal Article Ecology · September 2015 Density dependence could maintain diversity in forests, but studies continue to disagree on its role. Part of the disagreement results from the fact that different studies have evaluated different responses (survival, recruitment, or growth) of different s ... Full text Cite

A state-space modeling approach to estimating canopy conductance and associated uncertainties from sap flux density data.

Journal Article Tree physiology · July 2015 Uncertainties in ecophysiological responses to environment, such as the impact of atmospheric and soil moisture conditions on plant water regulation, limit our ability to estimate key inputs for ecosystem models. Advanced statistical frameworks provide coh ... Full text Cite

Tree phenology responses to winter chilling, spring warming, at north and south range limits

Journal Article Functional Ecology · December 1, 2014 Increases in primary production may occur if plants respond to climate warming with prolonged growing seasons, but not if local adaptation, cued by photoperiod, limits phenological advance. It has been hypothesized that trees with diffuse-porous xylem anat ... Full text Cite

More than the sum of the parts: forest climate response from joint species distribution models.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · July 2014 The perceived threat of climate change is often evaluated from species distribution models that are fitted to many species independently and then added together. This approach ignores the fact that species are jointly distributed and limit one another. Spe ... Full text Cite

Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change.

Journal Article Global change biology · June 2014 The recent global increase in forest mortality episodes could not have been predicted from current vegetation models that are calibrated to regional climate data. Physiological studies show that mortality results from interactions between climate and compe ... Full text Cite

The seasonal timing of warming that controls onset of the growing season.

Journal Article Global change biology · April 2014 Forecasting how global warming will affect onset of the growing season is essential for predicting terrestrial productivity, but suffers from conflicting evidence. We show that accurate estimates require ways to connect discrete observations of changing tr ... Full text Cite

Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inference

Journal Article Hydrological Processes · February 15, 2014 Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would inges ... Full text Cite

Using short-term measures of behaviour to estimate long-term fitness of southern elephant seals

Journal Article Marine Ecology Progress Series · January 27, 2014 Environmental changes (a type of disturbance) are altering the habitat of southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina, an apex marine predator in the Southern Ocean. As a result, individuals may shift their behaviour, spending more time in transit and less ti ... Full text Cite

The seasonal timing of warming that controls onset of the growing season

Journal Article Global Change Biology · 2014 Cite

Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history.

Journal Article Global change biology · January 2014 Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we anal ... Full text Cite

Process modeling for soil moisture using sensor network data

Journal Article Statistical Methodology · January 1, 2014 The quantity of water contained in soil is referred to as the soil moisture. Soil moisture plays an important role in agriculture, percolation, and soil chemistry. Precipitation, temperature, atmospheric demand and topography are the primary processes that ... Full text Cite

Pathogen regulation of plant diversity via effective specialization.

Journal Article Trends in ecology & evolution · December 2013 The Janzen-Connell (JC) hypothesis, one of the most influential hypotheses explaining forest diversity, is inconsistent with evidence that tree species share the same natural enemies. Through the discussion of seedling diseases from a pathogen-centered per ... Full text Cite

Pelagic movements of pacific leatherback turtles (dermochelys coriacea) highlight the role of prey and ocean currents

Journal Article Movement Ecology · November 20, 2013 Background: Leatherback turtles are renowned for their trans-oceanic migrations. However, despite numerous movement studies, the precise drivers of movement patterns in leatherbacks remain elusive. Many previous studies of leatherback turtles as well as ot ... Full text Cite

The effects of deer herbivory and forest type on tree recruitment vary with plant growth stage

Journal Article Forest Ecology and Management · November 5, 2013 Understanding the combined effects of land-use changes and expanding generalist herbivores on the recruitment of tree species is critical to predict forest community dynamics and for fulfilling conservation purposes. We assessed how deer herbivory and fore ... Full text Cite

Scaling integral projection models for analyzing size demography

Journal Article Statistical Science · November 1, 2013 Historically, matrix projection models (MPMs) have been employed to study population dynamics with regard to size, age or structure. To work with continuous traits, in the past decade, integral projection models (IPMs) have been proposed. Following the pat ... Full text Cite

Estimating resource acquisition and at-sea body condition of a marine predator.

Journal Article The Journal of animal ecology · November 2013 1. Body condition plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes at a variety of scales and across a broad range of animal taxa. An understanding of how body condition changes at fine spatial and temporal scales as a result of inter ... Full text Cite

Estimating resource acquisition and at-sea body condition of a marine predator

Journal Article Journal of Animal Ecology · November 1, 2013 Body condition plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes at a variety of scales and across a broad range of animal taxa. An understanding of how body condition changes at fine spatial and temporal scales as a result of interact ... Full text Cite

Dynamic Inverse Prediction and Sensitivity Analysis With High-Dimensional Responses: Application to Climate-Change Vulnerability of Biodiversity

Journal Article Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics · September 1, 2013 Sensitivity analysis (SA) of environmental models is inefficient when there are large numbers of inputs and outputs and interactions cannot be directly linked to input variables. Traditional SA is based on coefficients relating the importance of an input t ... Full text Cite

Host generalism in fungal pathogen and endophytes of seedlings and forest community dynamics

Conference PHYTOPATHOLOGY · June 1, 2013 Link to item Cite

Modelling the biological significance of behavioural change in coastal bottlenose dolphins in response to disturbance

Journal Article Functional Ecology · April 1, 2013 Behavioural change in response to anthropogenic activities is often assumed to indicate a biologically significant effect on a population of concern. Disturbances can affect individual health through lost foraging time or other behaviours, which will impac ... Full text Cite

Improving the modeling of disease data from the government surveillance system: a case study on malaria in the Brazilian Amazon.

Journal Article PLoS computational biology · January 2013 The study of the effect of large-scale drivers (e.g., climate) of human diseases typically relies on aggregate disease data collected by the government surveillance network. The usual approach to analyze these data, however, often ignores a) changes in the ... Full text Cite

Conservation efforts may increase malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon.

Journal Article PloS one · January 2013 BackgroundLarge-scale forest conservation projects are underway in the Brazilian Amazon but little is known regarding their public health impact. Current literature emphasizes how land clearing increases malaria incidence, leading to the conclusio ... Full text Cite

Using hierarchical bayes to understand movement, health, and survival in the endangered north atlantic right whale.

Journal Article PloS one · January 2013 Body condition is an indicator of health, and it plays a key role in many vital processes for mammalian species. While evidence of individual body condition can be obtained, these observations provide just brief glimpses into the health state of the animal ... Full text Cite

Rejoinder

Journal Article Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics · December 1, 2012 Full text Cite

Inference for Size Demography from Point Pattern Data using Integral Projection Models.

Journal Article Journal of agricultural, biological, and environmental statistics · December 2012 Population dynamics with regard to evolution of traits has typically been studied using matrix projection models (MPMs). Recently, to work with continuous traits, integral projection models (IPMs) have been proposed. Imitating the path with MPMs, IPMs are ... Full text Cite

The k-ZIG: flexible modeling for zero-inflated counts.

Journal Article Biometrics · September 2012 Many applications involve count data from a process that yields an excess number of zeros. Zero-inflated count models, in particular, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models, along with Poisson hurdle models, are commo ... Full text Cite

Intra- and interspecific tree growth across a long altitudinal gradient in the Peruvian Andes.

Journal Article Ecology · September 2012 Tree growth response across environmental gradients is fundamental to understanding species distributional ecology and forest ecosystem ecology and to predict future ecosystem services. Cross-sectional patterns of ecosystem properties with respect to clima ... Full text Cite

The missing link: From island extinction to Neutral Theory (a reply to Halley and Iwasa)

Journal Article Trends in Ecology and Evolution · July 1, 2012 Full text Cite

Causes and consequences of unequal seedling production in forest trees: a case study in red oaks.

Journal Article Ecology · May 2012 Inequality in reproductive success has important implications for ecological and evolutionary dynamics, but lifetime reproductive success is challenging to measure in long-lived species such as forest trees. While seed production is often used as a proxy f ... Full text Cite

The coherence problem with the Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity.

Journal Article Trends in ecology & evolution · April 2012 The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity (UNTB), proposed as an alternative to niche theory, has been viewed as a theory that species coexist without niche differences, without fitness differences, or with equal probability of success. Support is claimed ... Full text Cite

Failure to migrate: Lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

Journal Article Global Change Biology · March 1, 2012 Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations, but current evidence of latitudinal range shifts for suites of species is largely indirect. In response to global warming, offspring of trees are ... Full text Cite

Evaluating the impacts of multiple generalist fungal pathogens on temperate tree seedling survival.

Journal Article Ecology · March 2012 Host-specific mortality driven by natural enemies is a widely discussed mechanism for explaining plant diversity. In principle, populations of plant species can be regulated by distinct host-specific natural enemies that have weak or nonexistent effects on ... Full text Cite

The relative influences of host plant genotype and yearly abiotic variability in determining herbivore abundance.

Journal Article Oecologia · February 2012 Both plant genotype and yearly abiotic variation affect herbivore population sizes, but long-term data have rarely been used to contrast the relative contributions of each. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we directly compare effects of these two facto ... Full text Cite

Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity.

Journal Article Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · January 2012 Anticipating how biodiversity will respond to climate change is challenged by the fact that climate variables affect individuals in competition with others, but interest lies at the scale of species and landscapes. By omitting the individual scale, models ... Full text Cite

Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inferences

Journal Article Hydrological Processes · 2012 Cite

Hydraulic time constants for transpiration of loblolly pine at a free-air carbon dioxide enrichment site

Journal Article Tree Physiology · 2012 Cite

Application of a Full Hierarchical Bayesian Model in Assessing Streamflow Response to a Climate Change Scenario at the Coweeta Basin, NC, USA

Journal Article Journal of Resources and Ecology · 2012 Cite

The effects of elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization on stomatal conductance estimated from 11 years of scaled sap flux measurements at Duke FACE

Journal Article Tree Physiology · 2012 Cite

Between-site differences in the scale of dispersal and gene flow in red oak.

Journal Article PloS one · January 2012 BackgroundNut-bearing trees, including oaks (Quercus spp.), are considered to be highly dispersal limited, leading to concerns about their ability to colonize new sites or migrate in response to climate change. However, estimating seed dispersal i ... Full text Cite

Genetic evidence for hybridization in red oaks (Quercus sect. Lobatae, Fagaceae).

Journal Article American journal of botany · January 2012 Premise of the studyHybridization is pervasive in many plant taxa, with consequences for species taxonomy, local adaptation, and management. Oaks (Quercus spp.) are thought to hybridize readily yet retain distinct traits, drawing into question the ... Full text Cite

Bayesian inference on age-specific survival for censored and truncated data.

Journal Article The Journal of animal ecology · January 2012 1. Traditional estimation of age-specific survival and mortality rates in vertebrates is limited to individuals with known age. Although this subject has been studied extensively using effective capture-recapture and capture-recovery models, inference rema ... Full text Cite

Multidimensional trade-offs in species responses to disturbance: implications for diversity in a subtropical forest

Journal Article Ecology · 2012 Cite

Evidence from individual inference for high-dimensional coexistence: long-term experiments on recruitment response.

Journal Article PloS one · January 2012 BackgroundFor competing species to coexist, individuals must compete more with others of the same species than with those of other species. Ecologists search for tradeoffs in how species might partition the environment. The negative correlations a ... Full text Cite

Individual-scale variation, species-scale differences: inference needed to understand diversity.

Journal Article Ecology letters · December 2011 As ecological data are usually analysed at a scale different from the one at which the process of interest operates, interpretations can be confusing and controversial. For example, hypothesised differences between species do not operate at the species lev ... Full text Cite

Exploiting temporal coherence in forest dynamics simulation

Journal Article Proceedings of the Annual Symposium on Computational Geometry · July 15, 2011 Understanding the impact of climate and land-use on forest ecosystems involves modeling and simulating complex spatial interactions at many different scales. With this goal in mind, we have developed an individual-based, spatially explicit forest simulator ... Full text Cite

Ecological forecasting and data assimilation in a data-rich era.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · July 2011 Several forces are converging to transform ecological research and increase its emphasis on quantitative forecasting. These forces include (1) dramatically increased volumes of data from observational and experimental networks, (2) increases in computation ... Full text Cite

Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · July 2011 Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to ... Full text Cite

Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: Climate and competition tracking of demographic rates

Journal Article Global Change Biology · May 1, 2011 Forest responses to climate change will depend on demographic impacts in the context of competition. Current models used to predict species responses, termed climate envelope models (CEMs), are controversial, because (i) calibration and prediction are base ... Full text Cite

not complete, please see CV

Journal Article AAPG Bulletin · March 2011 Cite

Estimating seed and pollen movement in a monoecious plant: a hierarchical Bayesian approach integrating genetic and ecological data.

Journal Article Molecular ecology · March 2011 The scale of seed and pollen movement in plants has a critical influence on population dynamics and interspecific interactions, as well as on their capacity to respond to environmental change through migration or local adaptation. However, dispersal can be ... Full text Cite

Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

Journal Article Global Change Biology · February 1, 2011 Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil a ... Full text Cite

Data assimilation and ecological forecasting in a data-rich era

Journal Article Ecological Applications · 2011 Cite

Enhanced understanding of infectious diseases by fusing multiple datasets: a case study on malaria in the Western Brazilian Amazon region.

Journal Article PloS one · January 2011 BackgroundA common challenge to the study of several infectious diseases consists in combining limited cross-sectional survey data, collected with a more sensitive detection method, with a more extensive (but biased) syndromic sentinel surveillanc ... Full text Cite

Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

Journal Article Journal of Hydrology · November 26, 2010 Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and ... Full text Cite

High-dimensional coexistence based on individual variation: A synthesis of evidence

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · November 1, 2010 High biodiversity of forests is not predicted by traditional models, and evidence for trade-offs those models require is limited. High-dimensional regulation (e.g., N factors to regulate N species) has long been recognized as a possible alternative explana ... Full text Cite

Individual variability in tree allometry determines light resource allocation in forest ecosystems: a hierarchical Bayesian approach.

Journal Article Oecologia · July 2010 Tree species differences in crown size and shape are often highlighted as key characteristics determining light interception strategies and successional dynamics. The phenotypic plasticity of species in response to light and space availability suggests tha ... Full text Cite

Greater seed production in elevated CO₂ is not accompanied by reduced seed quality in Pinus taeda L

Journal Article Global change biology. · March 2010 For herbaceous species, elevated CO₂ often increases seed production but usually leads to decreased seed quality. However, the effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ on tree fecundity remain uncertain, despite the importance of reproduction to the compositio ... Full text Cite

Individuals and the variation needed for high species diversity in forest trees.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · February 2010 In the past, explanations for high species diversity have been sought at the species level. Theory shows that coexistence requires substantial differences between species, but species-level data rarely provide evidence for such differences. Using data from ... Full text Cite

Models for demography of plant populations

Journal Article The Oxford handbook of applied Bayesian analysis. Oxford University Press, New York, New York, USA · 2010 Cite

Inference in incidence, infection, and impact: Co-infection of multiple hosts by multiple pathogens

Journal Article Bayesian Analysis · December 1, 2009 A large literature concerns the epidemiology of single pathogens on single hosts. Yet in some environmental applications, such as fungal pathogens of forest tree seedlings, the " one host-one pathogen" paradigm may not be applicable. Multiple potential pat ... Full text Cite

Overcoming data sparseness and parametric constraints in modeling of tree mortality: A new nonparametric Bayesian model

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · September 1, 2009 Accurately describing patterns of tree mortality is central to understanding forest dynamics and is important for both management and ecological inference. However, for many tree species, annual survival of most individuals is high, so that mortality is ra ... Full text Cite

Biases in the estimation of size-dependent mortality models: Advantages of a semiparametric approach

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · August 1, 2009 Mortality rate is thought to show a U-shape relationship to tree size. This shape could result from a decrease of competition-related mortality as diameter increases, followed by an increase of senescence and disturbance-related mortality for large trees. ... Full text Cite

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

Journal Article The Journal of animal ecology · May 2009 1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Mo ... Full text Cite

Estimating colonization potential of migrant tree species

Journal Article Global Change Biology · April 23, 2009 Plant populations migrating in response to climate change will have to colonize established communities. Even if a population disperses to a new region with a favorable climate, interactions with other species may prevent its establishment and further spre ... Full text Cite

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · April 2009 Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are oft ... Full text Cite

A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.

Journal Article Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · April 2009 Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predictin ... Full text Cite

Inference when multiple pathogens affect multiple hosts: Bayesian model selection

Journal Article bayesian analysis · 2009 Cite

Estimating performance of potential migrant species

Journal Article Global Change Biology · 2009 Cite

Striking the right balance in right whale conservation

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences · 2009 Cite

Tree growth inference and prediction when the point of measurement changes: Modelling around buttresses in tropical forests

Journal Article Journal of Tropical Ecology · January 1, 2009 Estimation of tree growth is generally based on repeated diameter measurements. A buttress at the height of measurement will lead to overestimates of tree diameter. Because buttresses grow up the trunk through time, it has become common practice to increas ... Full text Cite

Beyond neutral science.

Journal Article Trends in ecology & evolution · January 2009 Biodiversity science is unusual in that an emerging paradigm is not based on a specific process, but rather depends largely on stochastic elements, perceived as neutral forces. Here I suggest that these forces, which have been justified, in part, by the co ... Full text Cite

Visitor perceptions of ecological design at the Crosby Arboretum, Picayune, Mississippi

Journal Article Native Plants Journal · 2009 Cite

Capturing diversity and interspecific variability in allometries: A hierarchical approach

Journal Article Forest Ecology and Management · November 20, 2008 There is growing recognition of the role of mechanistic scaling laws in shaping ecological pattern and process. While such theoretical relationships explain much of the variation across large scales, at any particular scale there is important residual vari ... Full text Cite

Understanding movement data and movement processes: current and emerging directions

Journal Article Ecol Letters · October 2008 ABSTRACT Animal movement has been the focus on much theoretical and empirical work in ecology over the last 25 years. By studying the causes and consequences of individual movement, ecologists have gained greater insight into the behavior of individuals a ... Full text Link to item Cite

Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · October 2008 As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of th ... Full text Cite

Inferring long-distance dispersal and topographic barriers during post-glacial colonization from the genetic structure of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) in New England

Journal Article Journal of Biogeography · September 1, 2008 Aim: This study aims to assess the role of long-distance seed dispersal and topographic barriers in the post-glacial colonization of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) using chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) variation, and to understand whether this explains the relatively ... Full text Cite

Changing the gap dynamics paradigm: Vegetative regeneration control on forest response tO disturbance

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · August 1, 2008 Understanding the manner in which changes in disturbance regimes will affect forest biodiversity is an important goal of global change research. Prevailing theories of recruitment after disturbance center on the role of pioneer species; predictions of fore ... Full text Cite

Changes in fire regimes since the last glacial maximum: An assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Journal Article Climate Dynamics · June 1, 2008 Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoa ... Full text Cite

Converting raw data into ecologically meaningful products

Journal Article Eos · February 29, 2008 Full text Cite

Biomass and toxicity responses of poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) to elevated atmospheric CO2: Reply

Journal Article Ecology · February 1, 2008 Full text Cite

Rethinking gap dynamics: the impact of damaged trees and sprouts

Journal Article Ecol Monog · 2008 Cite

Understanding movement data and processes: emerging techniques

Journal Article Ecol Letters · 2008 Cite

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Journal Article Climate Dynamics · 2008 Cite

New episodes of volcanism at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Journal Article Eos · 2008 Cite

Tree growth inference and prediction from diameter censuses and ring widths.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · October 2007 Estimation of tree growth is based on sparse observations of tree diameter, ring widths, or increments read from a dendrometer. From annual measurements on a few trees (e.g., increment cores) or sporadic measurements from many trees (e.g., diameter censuse ... Full text Cite

A scalable algorithm for dispersing population

Journal Article Journal of Intelligent Information Systems · August 1, 2007 Models of forest ecosystems are needed to understand how climate and land-use change can impact biodiversity. In this paper we describe an ecological dispersal model developed for the specific case of predicting seed dispersal by trees on a landscape for u ... Full text Cite

Resolving the biodiversity paradox.

Journal Article Ecology letters · August 2007 The paradox of biodiversity involves three elements, (i) mathematical models predict that species must differ in specific ways in order to coexist as stable ecological communities, (ii) such differences are difficult to identify, yet (iii) there is widespr ... Full text Cite

Long-term CO2 enrichment of a forest ecosystem: implications for forest regeneration and succession.

Journal Article Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · June 2007 The composition and successional status of a forest affect carbon storage and net ecosystem productivity, yet it remains unclear whether elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) will impact rates and trajectories of forest succession. We examined how CO2 ... Full text Cite

Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · May 1, 2007 Predicting vegetation shifts under climate change is a challenging endeavor, given the complex interactions between biotic and abiotic variables that influence demographic rates. To determine how current trends and variation in climate change affect seedli ... Full text Cite

Tree growth inference and prediction from diameter censuses and ring widths. Ecological Applications

Journal Article Ecol Appl · 2007 Cite

Are They Getting It?

Journal Article Landscape Architecture · 2007 Cite

Rejoinder to Clark et al. (2007): Response to Chesson and Rees

Journal Article Ecology Letters · January 1, 2007 Full text Cite

From data reverence to data relevance: Model-mediated wireless sensing of the physical environment

Conference Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) · January 1, 2007 Wireless sensor networks can be viewed as the integration of three subsystems: a low-impact in situ data acquisition and collection system, a system for inference of process models from observed data and a priori information, and a system that controls the ... Full text Cite

Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve.

Journal Article Ecology · August 2006 Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and clima ... Full text Cite

The next 20 years of ecology and evolution.

Journal Article Trends in ecology & evolution · July 2006 Full text Cite

A future for models and data in environmental science.

Journal Article Trends in ecology & evolution · July 2006 Together, graphical models and the Bayesian paradigm provide powerful new tools that promise to change the way that environmental science is done. The capacity to merge theory with mechanistic understanding and empirical evidence, to assimilate diverse sou ... Full text Cite

Pollen production by Pinus taeda growing in elevated atmospheric CO 2

Journal Article Functional Ecology · June 1, 2006 1. Rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 may have important consequences for reproductive allocation in forest trees. Changes in pollen production could influence population dynamics and is likely to have important consequences for human health. This is ... Full text Cite

Biomass and toxicity responses of poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) to elevated atmospheric CO2.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · June 2006 Contact with poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans) is one of the most widely reported ailments at poison centers in the United States, and this plant has been introduced throughout the world, where it occurs with other allergenic members of the cashew family ... Full text Cite

The past 20 years of ecology and evolution.

Journal Article Trends in ecology & evolution · June 2006 Full text Cite

Elevated CO2 and tree fecundity: The role of tree size, interannual variability, and population heterogeneity

Journal Article Global Change Biology · May 1, 2006 Long-term population effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 will be largely determined by reproductive effort. Our research objectives were to quantify variability in seed production and rate of maturation among individual Pinus taeda L. (Pinaceae) trees gr ... Full text Cite

A future for models and data in ecology

Journal Article Trends Ecol Evol · 2006 Cite

Synthesizing ecological experiments and observational data with hierarchical Bayes

Journal Article Hierarchical models of the environment. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK · 2006 Cite

A guide to calculating discrete-time invasion rates from data

Journal Article Conceptual ecology and invasion biology: reciprocal approaches to nature · 2006 Cite

Model-driven dynamic control of embedded wireless sensor networks

Journal Article Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) · January 1, 2006 Next-generation wireless sensor networks may revolutionize understanding of environmental change by assimilating heterogeneous data, assessing the relative value and costs of data collection, and scheduling activities accordingly. Thus, they are dynamic, d ... Full text Cite

Survival of tree seedlings across space and time: Estimates from long-term count data

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · December 1, 2005 1 Tree diversity in forests may be maintained by variability in seedling recruitment. Although forest ecologists have emphasized the importance of canopy gaps in generating spatial variability that might promote tree regeneration, the effects of canopy gap ... Full text Cite

Fire cycles in North American interior grasslands and their relation to prairie drought.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · June 2005 High-resolution analyses of a late Holocene core from Kettle Lake in North Dakota reveal coeval fluctuations in loss-on-ignition carbonate content, percentage of grass pollen, and charcoal flux. These oscillations are indicative of climate-fuel-fire cycles ... Full text Cite

Does predation contribute to tree diversity?

Journal Article Oecologia · April 2005 Seed and seedling predation may differentially affect competitively superior tree species to increase the relative recruitment success of poor competitors and contribute to the coexistence of tree species. We examined the effect of seed and seedling predat ... Full text Cite

The benefits of seed banking for red maple (Acer rubrum): Maximizing seedling recruitment

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · April 1, 2005 Seed banking is assumed to be unimportant for temperate trees, because their seeds are short-lived in soils. However, even short-term seed banking could increase recruitment and affect population dynamics of seed-banking trees. To investigate this possibil ... Full text Cite

Uncertainty in population growth rates calculated from demography: the hierarchical approach

Journal Article Ecology · 2005 Cite

Do seed and seedling predation contribute to the coexistence of three co-occuring tree species?

Journal Article Oecologia · 2005 Cite

Seed banking in temperate forests: Implications for recruitment limitation

Journal Article Ecology · 2005 Cite

Comparing predictors of tree growth: the case for exposed canopy area

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · 2005 Cite

Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians

Journal Article Ecology Letters · January 1, 2005 Advances in computational statistics provide a general framework for the high-dimensional models typically needed for ecological inference and prediction. Hierarchical Bayes (HB) represents a modelling structure with capacity to exploit diverse sources of ... Full text Cite

Molecular indicators of tree migration capacity under rapid climate change

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2005 Recent models and analyses of paleoecological records suggest that tree populations are capable of rapid migration when climate warms. Fossil pollen is commonly interpreted as suggesting that the range of many temperate tree species expanded at rates of 10 ... Full text Cite

Tree growth prediction using size and exposed crown area

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · January 1, 2005 We address the relationships between tree growth rate and growing environment for 21 co-occurring species. Tree growth rates are obtained from mapped plots at the Coweeta Long-Term Ecological Research site in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We employ h ... Full text Cite

Implications of seed banking for recruitment of southern Appalachian woody species

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2005 Seed dormancy is assumed to be unimportant for population dynamics of temperate woody species, because seeds occur at low densities and are short lived in forest soils. However, low soil seed densities may result from low seed production, and even modest s ... Full text Cite

Hierarchical Bayes for structured, variable populations: From recapture data to life-history prediction

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2005 Understanding population dynamics requires models that admit the complexity of natural populations and the data ecologists obtain from them. Populations possess structure, which may be defined as "fixed" stages through which individuals pass, with superimp ... Full text Cite

Reconstructing historical ranges with fossil data at continental scales

Journal Article Forest Ecology and Management · August 11, 2004 Sedimentary records indicating the changing distribution of temperate tree species since the last ice age are widely used to understand the rates and patterns of population response to environmental change and the genetic consequences of such dynamics. It ... Full text Cite

Charcoal production, dispersal, and deposition from the Fort Providence experimental fire: Interpreting fire regimes from charcoal records in boreal forests

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · August 1, 2004 The relationship between charcoal production from fires and charcoal deposition in lakes is poorly understood, which limits the interpretation of sediment charcoal records. This calibration study assessed charcoal particle production, size, and transport d ... Full text Cite

Neutral theory (communication arising): The stability of forest biodiversity

Journal Article Nature · March 2004 Cite

The stability of forest biodiversity: Commentary

Journal Article Nature · February 19, 2004 Full text Cite

Genetic variation in germination, growth, and survivorship of red maple in response to subambient through elevated atmospheric CO2

Journal Article Global Change Biology · February 1, 2004 Genetic variation in plant response to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may have influenced paleo-vegetation dynamics and could determine how future elevated CO2 drives plant evolution and ecosystem productivity. We established how levels of relatedness - ... Full text Cite

Population time series: Process variability, observation errors, missing values, lags, and hidden states

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2004 Population sample data are complex; inference and prediction require proper accommodation of not only the nonlinear interactions that determine the expected future abundance, but also the stochasticity inherent in data and variable (often unobserved) envir ... Full text Cite

Fecundity of trees and the colonization-competition hypothesis

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · January 1, 2004 Colonization-competition trade-offs represent a stabilizing mechanism that is thought to maintain diversity of forest trees. If so, then early-successional species should benefit from high capacity to colonize new sites, and late-successional species shoul ... Full text Cite

A scalable simulator for forest dynamics

Journal Article Proceedings of the Annual Symposium on Computational Geometry · January 1, 2004 Models of forest ecosystems are needed to understand how climate and land-use change can impact biodiversity. In this paper we describe an individual-based, spatially-explicit forest simulator with full accounting of both landscape context and the fine-sca ... Full text Cite

Seedling survival and growth in Southern Appalachian forests: Does spatial heterogeneity maintain species diversity

Journal Article Ecology · July 2003 Cite

Forecasting plant migration rates: Managing uncertainty for risk assessment

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · June 1, 2003 1. Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species. 2. Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while ... Full text Cite

Stability of forest biodiversity.

Journal Article Nature · June 2003 Two hypotheses to explain potentially high forest biodiversity have different implications for the number and kinds of species that can coexist and the potential loss of biodiversity in the absence of speciation. The first hypothesis involves stabilizing m ... Full text Cite

Incorporating multiple sources of stochasticity in population dynamic models

Journal Article Ecology · May 2003 Cite

Effects of dispersal, shrubs, and density-dependent mortality on seed and seedling distributions in temperate forests

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · May 1, 2003 Processes limiting recruitment of trees may have large impacts on forest dynamics. In this paper, we determined the effects of dispersal, shrubs (Rhododendron maximum), and density-dependent mortality on seed and seedling distributions of Southern Appalach ... Full text Cite

Uncertainty in ecological inference and forecasting. (Special Feature)

Journal Article Ecology · April 2003 Cite

Uncertainty in population growth rates calculated from demography: the hierarchical approach

Journal Article Ecology · March 2003 Cite

Spatial and temporal variation in boreal fire

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · February 2003 Cite

Geographic and temporal variations in fire history in boreal ecosystems of Alaska

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · January 16, 2003 Charcoal and pollen analyses were used to determine geographic and temporal patterns of fire importance in boreal forests of the Kenai Peninsula and interior Alaska. Sieved, large charcoal particles were measured in continuously sampled cores of Rock, Port ... Full text Cite

Population inference from messy data: Errors, missing and hidden states, and lagged responses

Journal Article Ecology · 2003 Cite

Seedling survival and growth of three forest tree species: The role of spatial heterogeneity

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2003 Spatial heterogeneity in microenvironments may provide unique regeneration niches for trees and may promote forest diversity. We examined how heterogeneity in understory cover, mineral nutrients, and moisture and their interactions with canopy gaps contrib ... Full text Cite

Incorporating multiple sources of stochasticity into dynamic population models

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2003 Many standard statistical models used to examine population dynamics ignore significant sources of stochasticity. Usually only process error is included, and uncertainty due to errors in data collection is omitted or not directly specified in the model. We ... Full text Cite

Estimating population spread: What can we forecast and how well?

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2003 Recent literature on plant population spread advocates quantification of long-distance dispersal (LDD). These estimates could provide insights into rates of migration in response to climate change and rates of alien invasions. LDD information is not availa ... Full text Cite

Coexistence: How to identify trophic trade-offs

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2003 Analyses of growth response to resource availability are the basis for interpreting whether trophic trade-offs contribute to diversity. If different species respond most to resources that are limiting at different times, then those differences may trade of ... Full text Cite

Uncertainty in Ecological Inference and Forecasting

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2003 Full text Cite

Uncertainty and variability in demography and population growth: A hierarchical approach

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2003 Estimates of uncertainty are the basis for inference of population risk. Uncertainty is estimated from models fitted to data that typically include a deterministic model (e.g., population growth) and stochastic elements, which should accommodate errors in ... Full text Cite

The relationship between growth and mortality for seven co-occurring tree species in the southern Appalachian Mountains

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · August 27, 2002 1. Slow growth is associated with high mortality risk for trees, but few data exist to assess interspecific differences in the relationship between growth and mortality. Here we compare low growth tolerance for seven co-occurring species in the southern Ap ... Full text Cite

Indirect effects of heavy metals on parasites may cause shifts in snail species compositions.

Journal Article Archives of environmental contamination and toxicology · July 2002 We studied the direct and indirect effects of pollution on the distributions and abundances of two closely related species of pulmonate freshwater snails. Physella columbiana is more numerous at heavy metal-polluted lakes, and Lymnaea palustris is more num ... Full text Cite

Growth and mortality for seven co-occurring tree species in the southern Appalachian Mountains: implications for future forest composition

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · June 2002 Cite

Density-dependent mortality and the latitudinal gradient in species diversity.

Journal Article Nature · June 2002 Ecologists have long postulated that density-dependent mortality maintains high tree diversity in the tropics. If species experience greater mortality when abundant, then more rare species can persist. Agents of density-dependent mortality (such as host-sp ... Full text Cite

Statistical modeling of seedling mortality

Journal Article Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics · March 1, 2002 Seedling mortality in tree populations limits population growth rates and controls the diversity of forests. To learn about seedling mortality, ecologists use repeated censuses of forest quadrats to determine the number of tree seedlings that have survived ... Full text Cite

Drought cycles and landscape responses to past aridity on prairies of the northern Great Plains, USA

Journal Article Ecology · March 1, 2002 Widespread drought is among the most likely and devastating consequences of future global change. Assessment of drought impacts forecast by atmospheric models requires an understanding of natural drought variability, especially under conditions more arid t ... Full text Cite

Geographic and temporal variations in fire history in boreal ecosystems of Alaska

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · 2002 Cite

A history of fire in Australia

Journal Article Flammable Australia: the fire regimes and biodiversity of a continent · 2002 Cite

Computation and Uncertainty in Ecological Forecasting.

Conference DG.O · 2002 Cite

Changes in biomass, aboveground net primary production, and peat accumulation following permafrost thaw in the boreal peatlands of Manitoba, Canada

Journal Article Ecosystems · September 22, 2001 Permafrost thaw resulting from climate warming may dramatically change the succession and carbon dynamics of northern ecosystems. To examine the joint effects of regional temperature and local species changes on peat accumulation following thaw, we studied ... Full text Cite

Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · July 2001 Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to fore ... Full text Cite

Invasion by extremes: variation in dispersal and reproduction retards population spread

Journal Article American Naturalist · May 2001 Cite

Invasion by extremes: population spread with variation in dispersal and reproduction.

Journal Article The American naturalist · May 2001 For populations having dispersal described by fat-tailed kernels (kernels with tails that are not exponentially bounded), asymptotic population spread rates cannot be estimated by traditional models because these models predict continually accelerating (as ... Full text Cite

Rising CO2 levels and the fecundity of forest trees.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · April 2001 We determined the reproductive response of 19-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) to 4 years of carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment (ambient concentration plus 200 microliters per liter) in an intact forest. After 3 years of CO2 fumigation, trees were twice a ... Full text Cite

On the estimation of spread rate for a biological population

Journal Article Statistics and Probability Letters · February 1, 2001 We propose a nonparametric estimator for the rate of spread of an introduced population. We prove that the limit distribution of the estimator is normal or stable, depending on the behavior of the moment generating function. We show that resampling methods ... Full text Cite

Effects of Holocene climate change on the C4 grassland/woodland boundary in the Northern Plains, USA

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 2001 To determine how grassland, woodland, and bordering forests respond to increased aridity, we used paleoecological methods to examine past responses along a transect of three sites at the eastern boundary of the Northern Plains of North America. Our study r ... Full text Cite

Effec1s on Biodiversi1y

Journal Article Conservation biology: research priorities for the next decade · 2001 Cite

Bayesian statistics: estimating plant demographic parameters

Journal Article Notes · 2001 Cite

Effects of Holocene climate change on the C₄ grassland/woodland boundary in the Northern Plains, USA

Journal Article Ecology · 2001 To determine how grassland, woodland, and bordering forests respond to increased aridity, we used paleoecological methods to examine past responses along a transect of three sites at the eastern boundary of the Northern Plains of North America. Our study r ... Cite

Global environmental change - Effects on biodiversity

Conference CONSERVATION BIOLOGY: RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR THE NEXT DECADE · January 1, 2001 Link to item Cite

Long-term perspectives on lagged ecosystem responses to climate change: Permafrost in boreal peatlands and the grassland/woodland boundary

Journal Article Ecosystems · December 1, 2000 Changes in climate could have far-reaching consequences for ecosystems sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation, such as boreal permafrost peatlands and grassland/woodland boundaries. The long-term data from our studies in these ecosystems sug ... Full text Cite

Complex long-term climate responses of North American boreal forest and savanna

Journal Article Ecosystems · March 2000 Cite

Biological indices of soil quality: an ecosystem case study of their use

Journal Article Forest Ecology and Management · January 2000 Cite

A long-term study of tree seedling recruitment in southern Appalachian forests: The effects of canopy gaps and shrub understories

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · January 1, 2000 We examined the importance of intermediate-sized gaps and a dense shrub layer on tree seedling recruitment in a southern Appalachian deciduous forest. We created 12 canopy gaps under two contrasting understory conditions: 6 gaps were dominated by the dense ... Full text Cite

Predicting tree mortality from diameter growth: A comparison of maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · January 1, 2000 Ecologists and foresters have long noted a link between tree growth rate and mortality, and recent work suggests that interspecific differences in low growth tolerance is a key force shaping forest structure. Little information is available, however, on th ... Full text Cite

Interpreting recruitment limitation in forests.

Journal Article American journal of botany · January 1999 Studies of tree recruitment are many, but they provide few general insights into the role of recruitment limitation for population dynamics. That role depends on the vital rates (transitions) from seed production to sapling stages and on overall population ... Full text Cite

Seed dispersal near and far: Patterns across temperate and tropical forests

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 1999 Dispersal affects community dynamics and vegetation response to global change. Understanding these effects requires descriptions of dispersal at local and regional scales and statistical models that permit estimation. Classical models of dispersal describe ... Full text Cite

Why trees migrate so fast: confronting theory with dispersal biology and the paleorecord.

Journal Article The American naturalist · August 1998 Reid's paradox describes the fact that classical models cannot account for the rapid (10(2)-10(3) m yr-1) spread of trees at the end of the Pleistocene. I use field estimates of seed dispersal with an integrodifference equation and simulation models of pop ... Full text Cite

Reid’s Paradox of rapid plant migration

Journal Article BioScience · June 1998 Cite

Effects of climate and atmospheric CO₂ partial pressure on the global distribution of C₄ grasses: present, past, and future.

Journal Article Oecologia · May 1998 C4 photosynthetic physiologies exhibit fundamentally different responses to temperature and atmospheric CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) compared to the evolutionarily more primitive C3 type. All else being equal, C< ... Full text Cite

Climate change disequilibrium of boreal permafrost peatlands caused by local processes.

Journal Article The American naturalist · March 1998 Boreal forest and tundra are the biomes expected to experience the greatest warming during the course of the next century. The transient responses of boreal peatlands to climate change could be more complex than a simple large release of carbon and rapid m ... Full text Cite

Stages and spatial scales of recruitment limitation in southern appalachian forests

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · January 1, 1998 Recruitment limitation of tree population dynamics is poorly understood, because fecundity and dispersal are difficult to characterize in closed stands. We present an approach that estimates seed production and dispersal under closed canopies and four limi ... Full text Cite

Relationships between charcoal particles in air and sediments in west-central Siberia

Journal Article Holocene · January 1, 1998 Production and size of charred particles determine transport and deposition in lakes. Lack of such data is a principal obstacle to interpretation of past fire from charcoal profiles. Our two-part analysis includes a calibration study, to assess charred-par ... Full text Cite

Plant migration and climate change

Journal Article AMERICAN SCIENTIST · September 1, 1997 Link to item Cite

Characterization of particulate products of biomass combustion

Journal Article NATO ASI SERIES I GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE · 1997 Cite

Background and local charcoal in sediments: scales of fire evidence in the paleorecord

Journal Article NATO ASI SERIES I GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE · 1997 Cite

Facing short-term extrapolation with long-term evidence: Holocene fire in the north-eastern US forests

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · January 1, 1997 Full text Cite

The role of fire during climate change in an eastern deciduous forest at Devil's Bathtub, New York

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 1996 Annual records of charcoal and sedimentation rate were compared with fossil pollen to investigate the role of fire in eastern deciduous forest around Devil's Bathtub, New York, USA. Changes in peak and background charcoal suggest that changes in fire regim ... Full text Cite

Testing disturbance theory with long-term data: Alternative life-history solutions to the distribution of events

Journal Article American Naturalist · January 1, 1996 A model of disturbance effects on fire-dependent tree populations is developed, parameterized, and tested using long-term data from northwestern Minnesota to determine the extent to which disturbance controls species composition. The model assumes fires ar ... Full text Cite

Climate implications of biomass burning since the 19th century in eastern North America

Journal Article Global Change Biology · January 1, 1996 Recent predictions that tropospheric aerosols have counterbalanced greenhouse warming assume aerosol emissions were low before AD1850 and then increased dramatically with industrialization of the Northern Hemisphere and biomass burning in the Tropics. We a ... Full text Cite

Estimating the mass flux of charcoal from sedimentary records: Effects of particle size, morphology, and orientation

Journal Article Holocene · January 1, 1996 Reconstructing past fire requires ways to compare concentration estimates obtained by different charcoal analysis methods. These methods estimate concentrations from area measurements or particle counts on pollen slides, on sieves, and on thin sections, an ... Full text Cite

Local and regional sediment charcoal evidence for fire regimes in presettlement north-eastern North America

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · January 1, 1996 1 Presettlement fire regimes in north-eastern North America and their dependence on climate, fuels, and cultural patterns are poorly understood due to lack of relevant historic or palaeoecological data. Annual records of sediment charcoal accumulation were ... Full text Cite

Disturbance and population structure on the shifting mosaic landscape

Journal Article Ecosystem Management Selected Readings. Springer, New York · 1996 Cite

Presettlement analogs for quaternary fire regimes in eastern North America

Journal Article Journal of Paleolimnology · January 1, 1996 We present a method for identifying analogs for past fire regimes and use it to assess similarity between late Quaternary fire regimes in northern Wisconsin and central New York and a reference set of charcoal series from just prior to presettlement time. ... Full text Cite

The role of paleofire in boreal and other cool-coniferous forests

Journal Article FIRE IN ECOSYSTEMS OF BOREAL EURASIA · January 1, 1996 Link to item Cite

Climate and Indian effects on southern Ontario forests: a reply to Campbell and McAndrews

Journal Article The Holocene · September 1995 Clark and Royall (1994) questioned the interpretation, drawn from a simulation model, that climatic cooling was responsible for the demise of typical northern hardwoods taxa and replacement with taxa that require fire or soil disturbance, Pinus an ... Full text Cite

Particle-size evidence for source areas of charcoal accumulation in late holocene sediments of eastern north american lakes

Journal Article Quaternary Research · January 1, 1995 Two methods of analyzing charcoal in sediment reveal changes in charcoal accumulation across temperate eastern North America during the last several hundred years. In one method the analyst counts mostly small particles that reflect regional emissions; in ... Full text Cite

Transformation of a northern hardwood forest by aboriginal (Iroquois) fire: Charcoal evidence from Crawford Lake, Ontario, Canada

Journal Article Holocene · January 1, 1995 Full text Cite

Climate and Indian effects on southern Ontario forests: a reply to Campbell and McAndrews

Journal Article The Holocene · 1995 Cite

Fecundity and dispersal in plant populations: Implications for structure and diversity

Journal Article American Naturalist · January 1, 1995 Full text Cite

Biochemical bases for the biogeography of C3/C4 grasses and implications for changing distributions since the last glacial maximum

Journal Article Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America · 1995 Cite

Fire in boreal ecosystems of Eurasia: first results of the Bor Forest Island Fire Experiment, Fire Research Campaign Asia-North (FIRESCAN)

Journal Article Journal of World Resources Review · February 1994 Cite

Pre-industrial particulate emissions and carbon sequestration from biomass burning in North America

Journal Article Biogeochemistry · January 1994 Cite

Pre-industrial particulate emissions and carbon sequestration from biomass burning in North America

Journal Article Biogeochemistry · January 1, 1994 Spatial trends in pre-industrial biomass burning emissions for eastern North America were reconstructed from sediment charcoal data. Petrographic thin sections were prepared from varved lake sediments along a transect of sites extending from NW Minnesota e ... Full text Cite

Charcoal analysis of varved lake sediments

Journal Article PACT · 1994 Cite

Scale relationships in boreal forest

Journal Article Trends in Ecology and Evolution · February 1993 Cite

SENSITIVITY OF UNMANAGED ECOSYSTEMS TO GLOBAL CHANGE

Journal Article ASSESSING SURPRISES AND NONLINEARITIES IN GREENHOUSE WARMING · January 1, 1993 Link to item Cite

Fire, climate change, and forest processes during the past 2000 years

Journal Article Special Paper of the Geological Society of America · January 1, 1993 Lake sediment records of vegetation, climate, and fire history indicate dynamic responses to climate changes of the past 2000 years. Studies of nitrogen (N) mineralization and forest structure within catchments of the same lakes suggest that responses may ... Full text Cite

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of patchiness: a marine--terrestrial perspective

Journal Article Patch dynamics. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA · 1993 Cite

Paleoecology of fire

Journal Article Wiley, New York · 1993 Cite

Scaling at the population level: Effects of species composition and population structure

Journal Article Scaling Physiological Processes: Leaf to Globe · 1993 Cite

Shifting mosaic metapopulation dynamics

Journal Article Lecture notes in biomathematics · 1993 Cite

Geological Society of America Special Paper 276 I993

Journal Article Elk Lake, Minnesota: evidence for rapid climate change in the north-central United States · 1993 Cite

PALEOECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES ON MODELING BROAD-SCALE RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CHANGE

Conference BIOTIC INTERACTIONS AND GLOBAL CHANGE · January 1, 1993 Link to item Cite

Fire, climate change, and forest processes during the past 2000 years

Journal Article Elk Lake, Minnesota: evidence for rapid climate change in the north-central United States · January 1, 1993 Lake sediment records of vegetation, climate, and fire history indicate dynamic responses to climate changes of the past 2000 years. Studies of nitrogen (N) mineralization and forest structure within catchments of the same lakes suggest that responses may ... Cite

Density-independent mortality, density compensation, gap formation, and self-thinning in plant populations

Journal Article Theoretical Population Biology · January 1, 1992 The timing and relative contributions of mortality agents in plant populations depend on the ways in which density-dependent (DD) mortality compensates for density-independent (DI) mortality rate. This relationship, in turn, determines the degree of canopy ... Full text Cite

Relationships among individual plant growth and the dynamics of populations and ecosystems

Journal Article Individual-based models and approaches in ecology. Chapman Hall · 1992 Cite

Ecological impacts and risks associated with forest management

Journal Article Advances in modern environmental toxicology · 1992 Cite

Forest-tree growth rates and probability of gap origin–a comment

Journal Article Ecology · March 1991 Cite

Disturbance and population structure on the shifting mosaic landscape

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 1991 A stochastic model of plant population dynamics is developed and analyzed to determine how density and age structure depend on thinning rates and disturbance regimes. Probability distributions of age and density are derived from the distribution of regener ... Full text Cite

Disturbance and tree life history on the shifting mosaic landscape

Journal Article Ecology · January 1, 1991 An analytical model of disturbance and plant population dynamics is developed to explore the optimal life history for a plant within a "shifting mosaic' metapopulation. The population dynamics consist of short-lived recruitment events followed by longer in ... Full text Cite

Landscape interactions among nitrogen mineralization, species composition, and long-term fire frequency

Journal Article Biogeochemistry · September 1, 1990 Path analysis was used to determine the importance of long-term disturbance regime and the relative importances of correlations among vegetation patterns, disturbance history, and nitrogen (N) mineralization in old-growth forests of northwestern Minnesota. ... Full text Cite

Effects of 20th century climate change and fire suppression on forest production and decomposition in northwestern Minnesota

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · March 1990 Cite

Population and evolutionary consequences of being a coastal plant: long-term evidence from the North Atlantic coasts

Journal Article Aquatic Science Reviews · February 1990 Cite

Integration of ecological levels: individual plant growth, population mortality and ecosystem processes

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · January 1, 1990 The relationships between exclusive crown area, crown-area increase and density of plants are used to derive rates of population thinning in even-aged stands. The theory incorporates initial density to determine the time to reach a "temporal self-thinning ... Full text Cite

Twentieth-century climate change, fire suppression, and forest production and decomposition in northwestern Minnesota

Journal Article Canadian Journal of Forest Research · January 1, 1990 In mixed-conifer stands of Itasca State Park, spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence and forest composition over the last 150 yr determined by stratigraphic charcoal, fire-scar, tree-ring and pollen analyses in separate studies provide evidence f ... Full text Cite

Fire and climate change during the last 750 yr in northwestern Minnesota

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · January 1, 1990 Charcoal stratigraphic analysis and fire scars on red pine (Pinus resinosa) trees were used to determine spatial and temporal occurrence of fire in 1 km2 of old-growth mixed conifer/hardwood forests in northwestern Minnesota. Charcoal was analyzed year by ... Full text Cite

Water balance and fire occurrence during the last 160 years in northwestern Minnesota

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · April 1989 Cite

Post Glacial fire, vegetation, and cultural history of the northern Alpine forelands, southwest Germany

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · February 1989 Cite

The forest is for burning

Journal Article Natural history · 1989 Cite

Effects of long-term water balances on fire regime, north-western Minnesota

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · January 1, 1989 The water balance shifted from consistently positive effective precipitation (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) during the Nineteenth century to one where precipitation roughly equalled potential evapotranspiration during the Twentieth cent ... Full text Cite

Ecological disturbance as a renewal process: theory and application to fire history

Journal Article Oikos · January 1, 1989 Failure-time analysis and renewal theory were used to evaluate 2 assumptions implicit in most studies involving calculations of disturbance frequency, which assume that the disturbance process is stationary (intervals between disurbances are drawn from the ... Full text Cite

Effect of climate change on fire regimes in northwestern Minnesota

Journal Article Nature · January 1, 1988 Of all the impacts of projected climate change on forest ecosystems, perhaps the most difficult to forecast is the potential for altered fire frequency and intensity. Fire regimes in forests are poorly understood for lack of long-term evidence. Here I used ... Full text Cite

Particle motion and the theory of charcoal analysis: Source area, transport, deposition, and sampling

Journal Article Quaternary Research · January 1, 1988 Principles from particle-motion physics were applied to recurring problems of the interpretation of stratigraphic charcoal data: (1) fires within catchments of lakes often produce no record in fossil-charcoal curves and (2) periods characterized by no loca ... Full text Cite

Stratigraphic charcoal analysis on petrographic thin sections: Application to fire history in northwestern Minnesota

Journal Article Quaternary Research · January 1, 1988 Results of stratigraphic charcoal analysis from thin sections of varved lake sediments have been compared with fire scars on red pine trees in northwestern Minnesota to determine if charcoal data accurately reflect fire regimes. Pollen and opaque-spherule ... Full text Cite

Dynamism in the barrier-beach vegetation of Great South Beach, New York

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · May 1986 Cite

Coastal forest tree populations in a changing environment, southeastern Long Island, New York

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · March 1986 Cite

Dynamism in the barrier-beach vegetation of Great South Beach, New York

Journal Article Ecological monographs · 1986 Cite

Pollen stratigraphic correlation and dating of barrier-beach peat sections

Journal Article Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology · January 1, 1986 Coastal researches use data from core sections to reconstruct past sedimentary environments and barrier-beach dynamics over the last 350 years. Disjunct organic and silt strata separated by sand deposits represent former salt marshes and lagoons that were ... Full text Cite

Late- Holocene vegetation and coastal processes at a Long Island tidal marsh.

Journal Article Journal of Ecology · January 1, 1986 Vegetation changes at the core sites included xeric Quercus-Castanea-Carya forests with a Pteridium-heath understory, followed by more mesic Fagus-Acer assemblages. Nyssa and a shrub transition zone subsequently invaded and were replaced by high marsh. At ... Full text Cite

The development of a tidal marsh: upland and oceanic influences

Journal Article Ecological Monographs · 1985 Cite

Pollen, 210Pb, and opaque spherules: an integrated approach to dating and sedimentation in the intertidal environment

Journal Article Journal of Sedimentary Petrology · January 1984 Cite

Pollen, Pb-210, and opaque spherules: an integrated approach to dating and sedimentation in the intertidal environment ( Long Island).

Journal Article Journal of Sedimentary Petrology · January 1, 1984 A combination of techniques was applied to the problem of dating recent intertidal deposits from eastern Long Island. Comparison of pollen profiles and historic documents supplied three dated horizons: 1) a 1640-1680 rise in agricultural indicator at the t ... Full text Cite