Scholars@Duke
Peter S. Arcidiacono

Peter S. Arcidiacono

William Henry Glasson Distinguished Professor of Economics
Economics
psarcidi@duke.edu
Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708-0097
228F Social Sciences, Durham, NC 27708

Selected Publications

Equilibrium Grading Policies With Implications for Female Interest in STEM Courses

Journal Article Econometrica · May 1, 2024 We show that stricter grading policies in STEM courses reduce STEM enrollment, especially for women. We estimate a model of student demand for courses and optimal effort choices given professor grading policies. Grading policies are treated as equilibrium ... Full text Cite

Divergent The Time Path of Legacy and Athlete Admissions at Harvard

Journal Article Journal of Human Resources · January 1, 2024 We examine how increased admissions competition at elite U.S. colleges has affected the admissions advantage that legacies and athletes (LA) receive. Using 18 years of Harvard admissions data, we show that nonlegacy, nonathlete (NLNA) applications expanded ... Full text Cite

Recruit to reject? Harvard and African American applicants

Journal Article Economics of Education Review · June 1, 2022 Elite colleges in the US have seen dramatic increases in applications over the past few decades, in part the result of expanded applicant recruiting. However, broadening the applicant pool while also maintaining diversity may require encouraging applicatio ... Full text Cite

Asian American Discrimination in Harvard Admissions

Journal Article European Economic Review · May 1, 2022 Using detailed admissions data made public in the SFFA v. Harvard case, we examine how Asian American applicants are treated relative to similarly situated white applicants. Our preferred model shows that typical Asian American applicants would see their a ... Full text Cite

Legacy and athlete preferences at Harvard

Journal Article Journal of Labor Economics · January 1, 2022 We use public documents from the Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard University lawsuit to examine admissions preferences for recruited athletes, legacies, those on the dean’s interest list, and children of faculty and staff (ALDCs). More than 43% of w ... Full text Cite

Ex ante returns and occupational choice

Journal Article Journal of Political Economy · December 1, 2020 Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. ... Full text Cite

Identifying dynamic discrete choice models off short panels

Journal Article Journal of Econometrics · April 1, 2020 This paper analyzes the identification of flow payoffs and counterfactual choice probabilities (CCPs) in single-agent dynamic discrete choice models. We develop new results on non-stationary models where the time horizon for the agent extends beyond the le ... Full text Cite

The Competitive Effects of Entry: Evidence from Supercenter Expansion

Journal Article AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS · 2020 Full text Cite

Nonstationary dynamic models with finite dependence

Journal Article Quantitative Economics · July 1, 2019 The estimation of nonstationary dynamic discrete choice models typically requires making assumptions far beyond the length of the data. We extend the class of dynamic discrete choice models that require only a few-period-ahead conditional choice probabilit ... Full text Cite

Productivity spillovers in team production: Evidence from professional basketball

Journal Article Journal of Labor Economics · January 1, 2017 We estimate a model where workers are heterogeneous both in their own productivity and in their ability to facilitate the productivity of others. We use data from professional basketball to measure the importance of peers in productivity because we have cl ... Full text Cite

College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation

Other Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) · May 31, 2016 This paper investigates the role played by informational frictions in college and the workplace. We estimate a dynamic structural model of schooling and work decisions, where individuals have imperfect information about their schooling ability and labor ma ... Open Access Cite

Affirmative action and the quality-fit trade-off

Journal Article Journal of Economic Literature · March 1, 2016 This paper reviews the literature on affirmative action in undergraduate education and law schools, focusing especially on the trade-off between institutional quality and the fit between a school and a student. We discuss the conditions under which affirma ... Full text Cite

The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School. Determinants and Wage Effects

Chapter · January 1, 2016 As the workforce has become more educated, educational decisions are about what type of education to pursue as well as how much to pursue. In college, individuals somewhat specialize through their choice of college major. Further specialization occurs in g ... Full text Cite

The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School: Determinants and Wage Effects

Journal Article In Handbook of the Economics of Education · 2016 Cite

Affirmative Action in Undergraduate Education

Journal Article Annual Review of Economics · August 2, 2015 The use of race in college admissions is one of the most contentious issues in US higher education. We survey the literature on the impact of racial preferences in college admissions on both minority and majority students. With regard to minority students, ... Full text Cite

Exploring the racial divide in education and the labor market through evidence from interracial families

Journal Article Journal of Human Capital · June 1, 2015 We examine gaps between minorities and whites in education and labor market outcomes, controlling for many covariates including maternal race. Identification comes from different reported races within the family. Estimates show two distinct patterns. First ... Full text Cite

Recovering Ex Ante Returns and Preferences for Occupations Using Subjective Expectations Data

Journal Article Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper · October 1, 2014 We show that data on subjective expectations, especially on outcomes from counterfactual choices and choice probabilities, are a powerful tool in recovering ex ante treatment effects as well as preferences for different treatments. In this paper we focus o ... Cite

Race and college success: Evidence from Missouri

Journal Article American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · January 1, 2014 Conditional on enrollment, African American students are substantially less likely to graduate from four-year public universities than white students. Using administrative micro-data from Missouri, we decompose the graduation gap into racial differences in ... Full text Cite

Pharmaceutical followers

Journal Article International Journal of Industrial Organization · November 15, 2013 We estimate a model of drug demand and supply that incorporates insurance, advertising, and competition between branded and generic drugs within and across therapeutic classes. We use data on antiulcer drugs from 1991 to 2010. Our simulations show that gen ... Full text Cite

Racial segregation patterns in selective universities

Journal Article Journal of Law and Economics · November 1, 2013 This paper examines sorting into interracial friendships at selective universities. We show significant friendship segregation, particularly for blacks. Indeed, blacks' friendships are no more diverse in college than in high school, despite the fact that t ... Full text Cite

Approximating High-Dimensional Dynamic Models: Sieve Value Function Iteration

Journal Article Advances in Econometrics · January 1, 2013 Many dynamic problems in economics are characterized by large state spaces which make both computing and estimating the model infeasible. We introduce a method for approximating the value function of highdimensional dynamic models based on sieves and estab ... Full text Open Access Cite

What happens after enrollment? An analysis of the time path of racial differences in GPA and major choice

Journal Article IZA Journal of Labor Economics · December 1, 2012 Abstract: At the private university we analyze, the gap between white and black grade point averages falls by half between the students' freshmen and senior year. This outcome could suggest that affirmative action policies are playing a key role to reduce ... Full text Cite

Estimating spillovers using panel data, with an application to the classroom

Journal Article Quantitative Economics · November 1, 2012 Obtaining consistent estimates of spillovers in an educational context is hampered by at least two issues: selection into peer groups and peer effects emanating from unobservable characteristics. We develop an algorithm for estimating spillovers using pane ... Full text Cite

Habit persistence and teen sex: Could increased access to contraception have unintended consequences for teen pregnancies?

Journal Article Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · June 11, 2012 We develop a dynamic discrete-choice model of teen sex and pregnancy that incorporates habit persistence. Habit persistence has two sources here. The first is a "fixed cost" of having sex, which relates to a moral or psychological barrier that has been cro ... Full text Cite

Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals

Journal Article Journal of Econometrics · January 1, 2012 The choice of a college major plays a critical role in determining the future earnings of college graduates. Students make their college major decisions in part due to the future earnings streams associated with the different majors. We survey students abo ... Full text Cite

Conditional choice probability estimation of dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneity

Journal Article Econometrica · November 1, 2011 We adapt the expectation-maximization algorithm to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity into conditional choice probability (CCP) estimators of dynamic discrete choice problems. The unobserved heterogeneity can be time-invariant or follow a Markov chain. B ... Full text Cite

Practical methods for estimation of dynamic discrete choice models

Journal Article Annual Review of Economics · August 22, 2011 Many discrete decisions are made with an eye toward how they will affect future outcomes. Formulating and estimating the underlying models that generate these decisions is difficult. Conditional choice probability (CCP) estimators often provide simpler way ... Full text Cite

Terms of Endearment: An Equilibrium Model of Sex and Matching

Journal Article Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper · May 5, 2011 We develop a directed search model of relationship formation which can disentangle male and female preferences for types of partners and for di fferent relationship terms using only a cross-section of observed matches. Individuals direct their search to a ... Cite

Representation versus assimilation: How do preferences in college admissions affect social interactions?

Journal Article Journal of Public Economics · February 1, 2011 Given the existence of non-selective universities, the question of whether to employ racial preferences in college admissions reduces to one of optimal allocation of a finite resource: students who are members of under-represented racial or ethnic groups. ... Full text Cite

The distributional impacts of minimum wage increases when both labor supply and labor demand are endogenous

Journal Article Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · January 1, 2011 We develop and estimate a one-shot search model with endogenous firm entry, and therefore zero expected profits, and endogenous labor supply. Positive employment effects from a minimum wage increase can result as the employment level depends upon both the ... Full text Cite

does the river spill over? estimating the economic returns to attending a racially diverse college

Journal Article Economic Inquiry · July 1, 2010 This article evaluates the frequently argued but heretofore little tested hypothesis that increasing minority representation in elite colleges generates tangible benefits for majority-race students. Using data on graduates of 30 selective universities, we ... Full text Cite

Explaining cross-racial differences in teenage labor force participation: Results from a two-sided matching model

Journal Article Journal of Econometrics · May 1, 2010 White teenagers are substantially more likely to search for employment than black teenagers. This differential occurs despite the fact that, conditional on race, individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds are more likely to search. While the racial wage ga ... Full text Open Access Cite

Beyond Signaling and Human Capital: Education and the Revelation of Ability

Journal Article American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2010 Open Access Link to item Cite

The effects of gender interactions in the lab and in the field

Journal Article Review of Economics and Statistics · February 1, 2009 An important issue with conducting economic analysis in the lab is whether the results generalize to real-world environments where the stakes and subject pool are considerably different. We examine data from the game show The Weakest Link to determine whet ... Full text Cite

The economic returns to an MBA

Journal Article International Economic Review · August 1, 2008 Because MBA programs require work experience before admittance, prior wages can be exploited to disentangle the return to the degree from unobserved productivity. We find that controlling for individual fixed effects generally reduces the estimated returns ... Full text Cite

Living rationally under the volcano? An empirical analysis of heavy drinking and smoking

Journal Article International Economic Review · February 1, 2007 This study investigates whether models of forward-looking behavior explain the observed patterns of heavy drinking and smoking of men in late middle age in the Health and Retirement Study better than myopic models. We develop and estimate a sequence of nes ... Full text Cite

Affirmative action in higher education: How do admission and financial aid rules affect future earnings?

Journal Article Econometrica · September 1, 2005 This paper addresses how changing the admission and financial aid rules at colleges affects future earnings. I estimate a structural model of the following decisions by individuals: where to submit applications, which school to attend, and what field to st ... Full text Cite

Peer effects in medical school

Journal Article Journal of Public Economics · February 1, 2005 Using data on the universe of students who graduated from US medical schools between 1996 and 1998, we examine whether the abilities and specialty preferences of a medical school class affect a student's academic achievement in medical school and his choic ... Full text Open Access Cite

Games and discrimination: Lessons from the weakest link

Journal Article Journal of Human Resources · January 1, 2005 We use data from the television game show, The Weakest Link, to determine whether contestants discriminate on the basis of race and gender and, if so, which theory of discrimination best explains their behavior. Our results suggest no evidence of discrimin ... Full text Cite

Do people value racial diversity? Evidence from Nielsen ratings

Journal Article Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy · January 1, 2005 Nielsen ratings for ABC's Monday Night Football are significantly higher when the game involves a black quarterback. In this paper, we consider competing explanations for this effect. First, quarterback race might proxy for other player or team attributes. ... Full text Open Access Cite

Do People Value Racial Diversity? Evidence from Nielsen Ratings

Journal Article B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy · January 1, 2005 Nielsen ratings for ABC's Monday Night Football are significantly higher when the game involves a black quarterback. In this paper, we consider competing explanations for this effect. First, quarterback race might proxy for other player or team attributes. ... Full text Cite

Ability sorting and the returns to college major

Journal Article Journal of Econometrics · July 1, 2004 Large earnings and ability differences exist across majors. This paper seeks to estimate the monetary returns to particular majors as well as find the causes of the ability sorting across majors. In order to accomplish this, I estimate a dynamic model of c ... Full text Cite

Paying to queue: A theory of locational differences in nonunion wages

Journal Article Journal of Urban Economics · January 1, 2004 Traditional theories of the effect unions have on nonunion wages are difficult to reconcile with firm and worker mobility. We show how differences in nonunion wages can persist in a two-city search model. Nonunion wage differences across cities are driven ... Full text Cite

The dynamic implications of search discrimination

Journal Article Journal of Public Economics · August 1, 2003 Blacks have both lower employment rates and lower earnings than whites. Further, the earnings gap increases as workers age. This paper focuses on explaining differences in black/white earnings profiles and how government interventions work in a dynamic env ... Full text Cite

Finite mixture distributions, sequential likelihood and the EM algorithm

Journal Article Econometrica · January 1, 2003 A popular way to account for unobserved heterogeneity is to assume that the data are drawn from a finite mixture distribution. A barrier to using finite mixture models is that parameters that could previously be estimated in stages must now be estimated jo ... Full text Open Access Cite