Skip to main content

Measuring and Modeling Confidence in Human Causal Judgment

Publication ,  Conference
O'Neill, K; Henne, P; Pearson, J; De Brigard, F
Published in: Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022
January 1, 2022

The human capacity for causal judgment has long been thought to depend on an ability to consider counterfactual alternatives: the lightning strike caused the forest fire because had it not struck, the forest fire would not have ensued. To accommodate psychological effects on causal judgment, a range of recent accounts of causal judgment have proposed that people probabilistically sample counterfactual alternatives from which they compute a graded index of causal strength. While such models have had success in describing the influence of probability on causal judgments, among other effects, we show that these models make further untested predictions: probability should also influence people's metacognitive confidence in their causal judgments. In a large (N=3020) sample of participants in a causal judgment task, we found evidence that normality indeed influences people's confidence in their causal judgments and that these influences were predicted by a counterfactual sampling model. We take this result as supporting evidence for existing Bayesian accounts of causal judgment.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022

Publication Date

January 1, 2022

Start / End Page

446 / 452
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
O’Neill, K., Henne, P., Pearson, J., & De Brigard, F. (2022). Measuring and Modeling Confidence in Human Causal Judgment. In Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022 (pp. 446–452).
O’Neill, K., P. Henne, J. Pearson, and F. De Brigard. “Measuring and Modeling Confidence in Human Causal Judgment.” In Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022, 446–52, 2022.
O’Neill K, Henne P, Pearson J, De Brigard F. Measuring and Modeling Confidence in Human Causal Judgment. In: Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022. 2022. p. 446–52.
O’Neill, K., et al. “Measuring and Modeling Confidence in Human Causal Judgment.” Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022, 2022, pp. 446–52.
O’Neill K, Henne P, Pearson J, De Brigard F. Measuring and Modeling Confidence in Human Causal Judgment. Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022. 2022. p. 446–452.

Published In

Proceedings of the 44th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society: Cognitive Diversity, CogSci 2022

Publication Date

January 1, 2022

Start / End Page

446 / 452