Scholars@Duke

Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters

Publication ,  Journal Article
Clemen, RT; Winkler, RL
Published in: Management Science
July 1990
Published version (DOI) Publisher Link

When two forecasters agree regarding the probability of an uncertain event, should a decision maker adopt that probability as his or her own? A decision maker who does so is said to act in accord with the unanimity principle. We examine a variety of Bayesian consensus models with respect to their conformance (or lack thereof) to the unanimity principle and a more general compromise principle. In an analysis of a large set of probability forecast data from meteorology, we show how well the various models, when fit to the data, reflect the empirical pattern of conformance to these principles.

Duke Scholars

Robert T. Clemen
Author Robert T. Clemen Fuqua School of Business
Robert L. Winkler
Author Robert L. Winkler Fuqua School of Business

Published In

Management Science

DOI

10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767

EISSN

1526-5501

ISSN

0025-1909

Publication Date

July 1990

Volume

36

Issue

7

Start / End Page

767 / 779

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Related Subject Headings

  • Operations Research
  • 46 Information and computing sciences
  • 38 Economics
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 08 Information and Computing Sciences
 

Citation

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Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1990). Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters. Management Science, 36(7), 767–779. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767
Clemen, Robert T., and Robert L. Winkler. “Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters.” Management Science 36, no. 7 (July 1990): 767–79. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767.
Clemen RT, Winkler RL. Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters. Management Science. 1990 Jul;36(7):767–79.
Clemen, Robert T., and Robert L. Winkler. “Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters.” Management Science, vol. 36, no. 7, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), July 1990, pp. 767–79. Crossref, doi:10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767.
Clemen RT, Winkler RL. Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters. Management Science. Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS); 1990 Jul;36(7):767–779.

Published In

Management Science

DOI

10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767

EISSN

1526-5501

ISSN

0025-1909

Publication Date

July 1990

Volume

36

Issue

7

Start / End Page

767 / 779

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Related Subject Headings

  • Operations Research
  • 46 Information and computing sciences
  • 38 Economics
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 08 Information and Computing Sciences