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The novel biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation: a derivation and validation study.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Hijazi, Z; Oldgren, J; Lindbäck, J; Alexander, JH; Connolly, SJ; Eikelboom, JW; Ezekowitz, MD; Held, C; Hylek, EM; Lopes, RD; Siegbahn, A ...
Published in: Lancet
June 4, 2016

BACKGROUND: The benefit of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation is based on a balance between reduction in ischaemic stroke and increase in major bleeding. We aimed to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve the prognostication of major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We developed and internally validated a new biomarker-based risk score for major bleeding in 14,537 patients with atrial fibrillation randomised to apixaban versus warfarin in the ARISTOTLE trial and externally validated it in 8468 patients with atrial fibrillation randomised to dabigatran versus warfarin in the RE-LY trial. Plasma samples for determination of candidate biomarker concentrations were obtained at randomisation. Major bleeding events were centrally adjudicated. The predictive values of biomarkers and clinical variables were assessed with Cox regression models. The most important variables were included in the score with weights proportional to the model coefficients. The ARISTOTLE and RE-LY trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT00412984 and NCT00262600, respectively. FINDINGS: The most important predictors for major bleeding were the concentrations of the biomarkers growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (cTnT-hs) and haemoglobin, age, and previous bleeding. The ABC-bleeding score (age, biomarkers [GDF-15, cTnT-hs, and haemoglobin], and clinical history [previous bleeding]) score yielded a higher c-index than the conventional HAS-BLED and the newer ORBIT scores for major bleeding in both the derivation cohort (0·68 [95% CI 0·66-0·70] vs 0·61 [0·59-0·63] vs 0·65 [0·62-0·67], respectively; ABC-bleeding vs HAS-BLED p<0·0001 and ABC-bleeding vs ORBIT p=0·0008). ABC-bleeding score also yielded a higher c-index score in the the external validation cohort (0·71 [95% CI 0·68-0·73] vs 0·62 [0·59-0·64] for HAS-BLED vs 0·68 [0·65-0·70] for ORBIT; ABC-bleeding vs HAS-BLED p<0·0001 and ABC-bleeding vs ORBIT p=0·0016). A modified ABC-bleeding score using alternative biomarkers (haematocrit, cTnI-hs, cystatin C, or creatinine clearance) also outperformed the HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores. INTERPRETATION: The ABC-bleeding score, using age, history of bleeding, and three biomarkers (haemoglobin, cTn-hs, and GDF-15 or cystatin C/CKD-EPI) was internally and externally validated and calibrated in large cohorts of patients with atrial fibrillation receiving anticoagulation therapy. The ABC-bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED and ORBIT scores and should be useful as decision support on anticoagulation treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation. FUNDING: BMS, Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche Diagnostics.

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Published In

Lancet

DOI

EISSN

1474-547X

Publication Date

June 4, 2016

Volume

387

Issue

10035

Start / End Page

2302 / 2311

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Young Adult
  • Warfarin
  • Stroke
  • Risk Factors
  • Pyridones
  • Pyrazoles
  • Prognosis
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Humans
 

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Hijazi, Z., Oldgren, J., Lindbäck, J., Alexander, J. H., Connolly, S. J., Eikelboom, J. W., … ARISTOTLE and RE-LY Investigators. (2016). The novel biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation: a derivation and validation study. Lancet, 387(10035), 2302–2311. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00741-8
Hijazi, Ziad, Jonas Oldgren, Johan Lindbäck, John H. Alexander, Stuart J. Connolly, John W. Eikelboom, Michael D. Ezekowitz, et al. “The novel biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation: a derivation and validation study.Lancet 387, no. 10035 (June 4, 2016): 2302–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00741-8.
Hijazi Z, Oldgren J, Lindbäck J, Alexander JH, Connolly SJ, Eikelboom JW, et al. The novel biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation: a derivation and validation study. Lancet. 2016 Jun 4;387(10035):2302–11.
Hijazi, Ziad, et al. “The novel biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation: a derivation and validation study.Lancet, vol. 387, no. 10035, June 2016, pp. 2302–11. Pubmed, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00741-8.
Hijazi Z, Oldgren J, Lindbäck J, Alexander JH, Connolly SJ, Eikelboom JW, Ezekowitz MD, Held C, Hylek EM, Lopes RD, Siegbahn A, Yusuf S, Granger CB, Wallentin L, ARISTOTLE and RE-LY Investigators. The novel biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-bleeding risk score for patients with atrial fibrillation: a derivation and validation study. Lancet. 2016 Jun 4;387(10035):2302–2311.
Journal cover image

Published In

Lancet

DOI

EISSN

1474-547X

Publication Date

June 4, 2016

Volume

387

Issue

10035

Start / End Page

2302 / 2311

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Young Adult
  • Warfarin
  • Stroke
  • Risk Factors
  • Pyridones
  • Pyrazoles
  • Prognosis
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Humans