Comparative Prognosis by Stress ECG and Stress Imaging: Results From the ISCHEMIA Trial.

BACKGROUND: Limited contemporary evidence exists on risk prediction by stress imaging and exercise electrocardiography (ECG) among patients with chronic coronary syndromes (CCS). Objectives From the ISCHEMIA (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches) study, prognosis was examined by core laboratory-defined stress imaging and exercise ECG findings in CCS patients. METHODS: A total of 5,179 patients (qualifying by stress nuclear imaging [n = 2,567], echocardiography [n = 1,085], cardiac magnetic resonance [CMR] [n = 257], and ECG [n = 1,270]) were randomized. Cox models assessed associations between trial endpoints and the number of scarred and ischemic segments, rest/stress left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and ST-segment depression. HRs and 95% CIs were calculated per millimeter, segment, or 5% of LVEF. We examined prognostic models for the following trial endpoints: 1) the trial's primary endpoint of cardiovascular (CV) death, myocardial infarction (MI), resuscitated cardiac arrest, or hospitalization for unstable angina or heart failure; 2) CV death; 3) spontaneous MI; 4) procedural MI; and 5) type 2 MI. RESULTS: The number of scarred segments (HR: 1.07 [95% CI: 1.02-1.13]; P = 0.0209), rest LVEF (HR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.83-0.93]; P < 0.001), and stress LVEF (HR: 0.87 [95% CI: 0.83-0.91]; P < 0.001) predicted the trial's primary endpoint of CV death, MI, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or hospitalization for unstable angina or heart failure. The extent of scar and rest/stress LVEF on echocardiography and nuclear imaging predicted several trial endpoints. The number of ischemic segments predicted spontaneous (HR: 1.08 [95% CI: 1.03-1.14]; P = 0.0104) and procedural MI (HR: 1.14 [95% CI: 1.03-1.25]; P = 0.0015) but was of borderline significance for the trial's primary endpoint (P = 0.0746). Ischemia extent by CMR predicted the trial's primary endpoint (P = 0.0068) and spontaneous MI (P = 0.0042). CONCLUSIONS: ISCHEMIA trial findings from 320 worldwide centers revealed that stress imaging and exercise ECG measures exhibited a variable association with key trial endpoints delineating risk patterns for ischemia and infarction. Stress CMR ischemia predicted several trial endpoints, supporting an expanded role in the evaluation of patients with CCS (ISCHEMIA [International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness With Medical and Invasive Approaches]; NCT01471522).

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