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Drew Todd Shindell

Nicholas Distinguished Professor of Earth Science
Earth and Climate Sciences
9 Circuit Dr, PO Box 90328, Grainger Hall, Durham, NC 27708

Selected Publications


Assessing acetone for the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · May 2, 2024 Acetone is an abundant volatile organic compound (VOC) in the atmosphere, with important influences on ozone and oxidation capacity. Direct sources include chemical production from other VOCs and anthropogenic emissions, terrestrial vegetation, biomass-bur ... Full text Cite

Impacts of warming on outdoor worker well-being in the tropics and adaptation options

Journal Article One Earth · March 15, 2024 Over a billion outdoor workers live in the tropics, where nearly a fifth of all hours in the year are hot and humid enough to exceed recommended safety thresholds for workers conducting heavy labor. Reviews have focused on heat impacts on worker health, we ... Full text Cite

Improving consistency in estimating future health burdens from environmental risk factors: Case study for ambient air pollution.

Journal Article Environment international · March 2024 Future changes in exposure to risk factors should impact mortality rates and population. However, studies commonly use mortality rates and population projections developed exogenously to the health impact assessment model used to quantify future health bur ... Full text Cite

Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities.

Journal Article GeoHealth · January 2024 For the population of a given US city, the risk of premature death associated with heat exposure increases as temperatures rise, but risks in hotter cities are generally lower than in cooler cities at equivalent temperatures due to factors such as acclimat ... Full text Cite

Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · January 2024 Following a sustainable development pathway designed to keep warming below 2 °C will benefit human health. We quantify premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and heat exposures for China, South Asia, and t ... Full text Cite

The important role of African emissions reductions in projected local rainfall changes

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2023 Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change but emits a small portion of global greenhouse gases. Additionally, decarbonization might lead to a ‘climate penalty’ whereby reductions in cooling aerosols offset temperature benefits from CO2 reductions for s ... Full text Cite

Geophysical Uncertainties in Air Pollution Exposure and Benefits of Emissions Reductions for Global Health

Journal Article Earth's Future · September 1, 2023 Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution is associated with large-scale health consequences, but the ranges in estimates of global air pollution exposure and PM2.5-related global premature mortality remain understudied. Using four model/ob ... Full text Cite

The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions.

Journal Article Earth's future · September 2023 Atmospheric methane directly affects surface temperatures and indirectly affects ozone, impacting human welfare, the economy, and environment. The social cost of methane (SC-CH4) metric estimates the costs associated with an additional marginal ... Full text Cite

Evaluating net life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensities from gas and coal at varying methane leakage rates

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · August 1, 2023 The net climate impact of gas and coal life-cycle emissions are highly dependent on methane leakage. Every molecule of methane leaked alters the climate advantage because methane warms the planet significantly more than CO2 over its decade-long lifetime. W ... Full text Cite

Higher Temperatures in Socially Vulnerable US Communities Increasingly Limit Safe Use of Electric Fans for Cooling.

Journal Article Geohealth · August 2023 As the globe warms, people will increasingly need affordable, safe methods to stay cool and minimize the worst health impacts of heat exposure. One of the cheapest cooling methods is electric fans. Recent research has recommended ambient air temperature th ... Full text Link to item Cite

Understanding Model-Observation Discrepancies in Satellite Retrievals of Atmospheric Temperature Using GISS ModelE

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · January 16, 2023 We examine multiple factors in the representation of satellite-retrieved atmospheric temperature diagnostics in historical simulations of climate change during the satellite era (specifically 1979–2021) using GISS ModelE contributions to the Coupled Model ... Full text Cite

Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS-E2.1

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · July 1, 2022 This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed ... Full text Cite

Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · May 2022 The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the c ... Full text Cite

Premature Deaths in Africa Due To Particulate Matter Under High and Low Warming Scenarios.

Journal Article GeoHealth · May 2022 Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can provide enormous public health benefits via improved air quality, especially in polluted areas. We use the latest state-of-the-art composition-climate model simulations to contrast human exposure to ... Full text Open Access Cite

Scientific data from precipitation driver response model intercomparison project.

Journal Article Scientific data · March 2022 This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understand ... Full text Cite

Surface ozone impacts on major crop production in China from 2010 to 2017

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · February 25, 2022 Exposure to elevated surface ozone is damaging to crops. In this study, we performed an analysis of temporal and spatial distributions of relative yield losses (RYLs) attributable to surface ozone for major crops in China from 2010 to 2017, by applying AOT ... Full text Cite

Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · February 2022 Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a considerable contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not acc ... Full text Cite

Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · January 1, 2022 Humid heat impacts a large portion of the world's population that works outdoors. Previous studies have quantified humid heat impacts on labor productivity by relying on exposure response functions that are based on uncontrolled experiments under a limited ... Full text Open Access Cite

Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol pollution in South and East Asia induces increased summer precipitation over arid Central Asia.

Journal Article Communications earth & environment · January 2022 Precipitation has increased across the arid Central Asia region over recent decades. However, the underlying mechanisms of this trend are poorly understood. Here, we analyze multi-model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomp ... Full text Cite

Assessing acetone for the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · May 2, 2024 Acetone is an abundant volatile organic compound (VOC) in the atmosphere, with important influences on ozone and oxidation capacity. Direct sources include chemical production from other VOCs and anthropogenic emissions, terrestrial vegetation, biomass-bur ... Full text Cite

Impacts of warming on outdoor worker well-being in the tropics and adaptation options

Journal Article One Earth · March 15, 2024 Over a billion outdoor workers live in the tropics, where nearly a fifth of all hours in the year are hot and humid enough to exceed recommended safety thresholds for workers conducting heavy labor. Reviews have focused on heat impacts on worker health, we ... Full text Cite

Improving consistency in estimating future health burdens from environmental risk factors: Case study for ambient air pollution.

Journal Article Environment international · March 2024 Future changes in exposure to risk factors should impact mortality rates and population. However, studies commonly use mortality rates and population projections developed exogenously to the health impact assessment model used to quantify future health bur ... Full text Cite

Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities.

Journal Article GeoHealth · January 2024 For the population of a given US city, the risk of premature death associated with heat exposure increases as temperatures rise, but risks in hotter cities are generally lower than in cooler cities at equivalent temperatures due to factors such as acclimat ... Full text Cite

Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · January 2024 Following a sustainable development pathway designed to keep warming below 2 °C will benefit human health. We quantify premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and heat exposures for China, South Asia, and t ... Full text Cite

The important role of African emissions reductions in projected local rainfall changes

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2023 Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change but emits a small portion of global greenhouse gases. Additionally, decarbonization might lead to a ‘climate penalty’ whereby reductions in cooling aerosols offset temperature benefits from CO2 reductions for s ... Full text Cite

Geophysical Uncertainties in Air Pollution Exposure and Benefits of Emissions Reductions for Global Health

Journal Article Earth's Future · September 1, 2023 Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution is associated with large-scale health consequences, but the ranges in estimates of global air pollution exposure and PM2.5-related global premature mortality remain understudied. Using four model/ob ... Full text Cite

The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions.

Journal Article Earth's future · September 2023 Atmospheric methane directly affects surface temperatures and indirectly affects ozone, impacting human welfare, the economy, and environment. The social cost of methane (SC-CH4) metric estimates the costs associated with an additional marginal ... Full text Cite

Evaluating net life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensities from gas and coal at varying methane leakage rates

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · August 1, 2023 The net climate impact of gas and coal life-cycle emissions are highly dependent on methane leakage. Every molecule of methane leaked alters the climate advantage because methane warms the planet significantly more than CO2 over its decade-long lifetime. W ... Full text Cite

Higher Temperatures in Socially Vulnerable US Communities Increasingly Limit Safe Use of Electric Fans for Cooling.

Journal Article Geohealth · August 2023 As the globe warms, people will increasingly need affordable, safe methods to stay cool and minimize the worst health impacts of heat exposure. One of the cheapest cooling methods is electric fans. Recent research has recommended ambient air temperature th ... Full text Link to item Cite

Understanding Model-Observation Discrepancies in Satellite Retrievals of Atmospheric Temperature Using GISS ModelE

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · January 16, 2023 We examine multiple factors in the representation of satellite-retrieved atmospheric temperature diagnostics in historical simulations of climate change during the satellite era (specifically 1979–2021) using GISS ModelE contributions to the Coupled Model ... Full text Cite

Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS-E2.1

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · July 1, 2022 This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed ... Full text Cite

Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · May 2022 The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the c ... Full text Cite

Premature Deaths in Africa Due To Particulate Matter Under High and Low Warming Scenarios.

Journal Article GeoHealth · May 2022 Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can provide enormous public health benefits via improved air quality, especially in polluted areas. We use the latest state-of-the-art composition-climate model simulations to contrast human exposure to ... Full text Open Access Cite

Scientific data from precipitation driver response model intercomparison project.

Journal Article Scientific data · March 2022 This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understand ... Full text Cite

Surface ozone impacts on major crop production in China from 2010 to 2017

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · February 25, 2022 Exposure to elevated surface ozone is damaging to crops. In this study, we performed an analysis of temporal and spatial distributions of relative yield losses (RYLs) attributable to surface ozone for major crops in China from 2010 to 2017, by applying AOT ... Full text Cite

Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · February 2022 Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a considerable contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not acc ... Full text Cite

Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · January 1, 2022 Humid heat impacts a large portion of the world's population that works outdoors. Previous studies have quantified humid heat impacts on labor productivity by relying on exposure response functions that are based on uncontrolled experiments under a limited ... Full text Open Access Cite

Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol pollution in South and East Asia induces increased summer precipitation over arid Central Asia.

Journal Article Communications earth & environment · January 2022 Precipitation has increased across the arid Central Asia region over recent decades. However, the underlying mechanisms of this trend are poorly understood. Here, we analyze multi-model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomp ... Full text Cite

Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world.

Journal Article Nature communications · December 2021 Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use r ... Full text Open Access Cite

Temporal and spatial distribution of health, labor, and crop benefits of climate change mitigation in the United States.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · November 2021 Societal benefits from climate change mitigation accrue via multiple pathways. We examine the US impacts of emission changes on several factors that are affected by both climate and air quality responses. Nationwide benefits through midcentury stem primari ... Full text Open Access Cite

Impacts of emission changes in China from 2010 to 2017 on domestic and intercontinental air quality and health effect

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 29, 2021 China has experienced dramatic changes in emissions since 2010, which accelerated following the implementation of the Clean Air Action program in 2013. These changes have resulted in significant air quality improvements that are reflected in observations f ... Full text Cite

Similar patterns of tropical precipitation and circulation changes under solar and greenhouse gas forcing

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · October 1, 2021 Theory and model evidence indicate a higher global hydrological sensitivity for the same amount of surface warming to solar as to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, but regional patterns are highly uncertain due to their dependence on circulation and dynamics. ... Full text Cite

Large uncertainties in global hydroxyl projections tied to fate of reactive nitrogen and carbon.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · October 2021 The hydroxyl radical (OH) sets the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere and, thus, profoundly affects the removal rate of pollutants and reactive greenhouse gases. While observationally derived constraints exist for global annual mean present-day OH abunda ... Full text Cite

Distinct surface response to black carbon aerosols

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · September 17, 2021 For the radiative impact of individual climate forcings, most previous studies focused on the global mean values at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and less attention has been paid to surface processes, especially for black carbon (BC) aerosols. In this s ... Full text Cite

Acting rapidly to deploy readily available methane mitigation measures by sector can immediately slow global warming

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · May 1, 2021 Methane mitigation is essential for addressing climate change, but the value of rapidly implementing available mitigation measures is not well understood. In this paper, we analyze the climate benefits of fast action to reduce methane emissions as compared ... Full text Cite

Exploration of the Global Burden of Dementia Attributable to PM2.5: What Do We Know Based on Current Evidence?

Journal Article GeoHealth · May 2021 Exposure to ambient PM2.5 pollution has been linked to multiple adverse health effects. Additional effects have been identified in the literature and there is a need to understand its potential role in high prevalence diseases. In response to re ... Full text Cite

Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 9, 2021 The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 % of India's precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation model ... Full text Cite

Intercomparison of the representations of the atmospheric chemistry of pre-industrial methane and ozone in earth system and other global chemistry-transport models

Journal Article Atmospheric Environment · March 1, 2021 An intercomparison has been set up to study the representation of the atmospheric chemistry of the pre-industrial troposphere in earth system and other global tropospheric chemistry-transport models. The intercomparison employed a constrained box model and ... Full text Cite

Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change

Journal Article Climatic Change · February 1, 2021 Extreme heat is already occurring more frequently and with greater intensity, with this trend predicted to continue. Exposure to extreme heat causes labor supply declines, but studies to quantify the economic effects from future climate changes are limited ... Full text Cite

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS-E2.1

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · January 1, 2021 Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System Mode ... Full text Cite

Integrated assessment of global climate, air pollution, and dietary, malnutrition and obesity health impacts of food production and consumption between 2014 and 2018

Journal Article Environmental Research Communications · January 1, 2021 Agriculture accounts for approximately 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is simultaneously associated with impacts on human health through food consumption, and agricultural air pollutant emissions. These impacts are often quantified separately, a ... Full text Cite

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere—2. Validation of Large-Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · December 27, 2020 Here we examine the large-scale transport characteristics of the new “Middle Atmosphere” NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (E2.2). First, we evaluate the stratospheric transport circulation in historical atmosphere-only simulati ... Full text Cite

Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2020 Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is ... Full text Cite

Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh.

Journal Article Environment international · December 2020 Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mit ... Full text Cite

The effect of rapid adjustments to halocarbons and N2O on radiative forcing

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2020 Rapid adjustments occur after initial perturbation of an external climate driver (e.g., CO2) and involve changes in, e.g. atmospheric temperature, water vapour and clouds, independent of sea surface temperature changes. Knowledge of such adjustments is nec ... Full text Cite

How aerosols and greenhouse gases influence the diurnal temperature range

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · November 12, 2020 The diurnal temperature range (DTR) (or difference between the maximum and minimum temperature within a day) is one of many climate parameters that affects health, agriculture and society. Understanding how DTR evolves under global warming is therefore cru ... Full text Cite

The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO2 reduction beyond the Paris Commitment.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · November 2020 China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The "Beautiful China" strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 μg/m3 or below for an ... Full text Cite

Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions.

Journal Article Environmental health perspectives · November 2020 BackgroundModeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation a ... Full text Cite

Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · October 28, 2020 We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averag ... Full text Cite

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 21, 2020 Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elus ... Full text Cite

Air Quality Response in China Linked to the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Lockdown.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · October 2020 Efforts to stem the spread of COVID-19 in China hinged on severe restrictions to human movement starting 23 January 2020 in Wuhan and subsequently to other provinces. Here, we quantify the ancillary impacts on air pollution and human health using inverse e ... Full text Cite

Data from modeling in support of the Global Methane Assessment, UN Environment, 2020

Dataset · September 16, 2020 We focus our modeling on the response to 50% reductions in the anthropogenic increase in methane concentrations. A 50% value is chosen as that is large enough to give a clear signal over meteorological noise in the models and it is similar in magnitude to ... Full text Cite

GISS-E2.1: Configurations and Climatology.

Journal Article Journal of advances in modeling earth systems · August 2020 This paper describes the GISS-E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS-E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model c ... Full text Cite

Response of surface shortwave cloud radiative effect to greenhouse gases and aerosols and its impact on summer maximum temperature

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · July 16, 2020 Shortwave cloud radiative effects (SWCREs), defined as the difference of the shortwave radiative flux between all-sky and clear-sky conditions at the surface, have been reported to play an important role in influencing the Earth's energy budget and tempera ... Full text Cite

Call for comments: climate and clean air responses to covid-19.

Journal Article International journal of public health · June 2020 Full text Cite

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere—Model Structure, Climatology, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · May 27, 2020 We introduce a new climate model (GISS E2.2) that has been specially optimized for the middle atmosphere and whose output is being contributed to the CMIP6 archive. The top of the model is at a geopotential altitude of 89 km, and parameterizations of moist ... Full text Cite

Influences of Solar Forcing at Ultraviolet and Longer Wavelengths on Climate

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · April 16, 2020 Solar forcing has contributed minimally to modern global warming, but its role in decadal and regional climate change and the mechanisms underlying those impacts remain incompletely understood. Analyses of modern observations show inconsistent surface clim ... Full text Cite

The Effects of Heat Exposure on Human Mortality Throughout the United States.

Journal Article GeoHealth · April 2020 Exposure to high ambient temperatures is an important cause of avoidable, premature death that may become more prevalent under climate change. Though extensive epidemiological data are available in the United States, they are largely limited to select larg ... Full text Open Access Cite

Local and remote mean and extreme temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 12, 2020 The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three couple ... Full text Cite

Author Correction: Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur.

Journal Article Scientific reports · March 2020 An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. ... Full text Cite

Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · February 14, 2020 Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O3) is associated with a variety of impacts, including adverse humanhealth effects and reduced yields in commercial crops. Ground-level O3 concentrations for assessments are typically predicted using chemical transport ... Full text Cite

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.

Journal Article Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR · December 2019 Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation D ... Full text Cite

Observationally constrained aerosol–cloud semi-direct effects

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2019 Absorbing aerosols, like black carbon (BC), give rise to rapid adjustments, and the associated perturbation to the atmospheric temperature structure alters the cloud distribution. The level of scientific understanding of these rapid cloud adjustments—other ... Full text Cite

Air Pollution and Health - A Science-Policy Initiative.

Journal Article Annals of global health · December 2019 Air pollution is a major, preventable and manageable threat to people's health, well-being and the fulfillment of sustainable development. Air pollution is estimated to contribute to at least 5 million premature deaths each year across the world. No one re ... Full text Open Access Cite

Extreme wet and dry conditions affected differently by greenhouse gases and aerosols

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2019 Global warming due to greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols alter precipitation rates, but the influence on extreme precipitation by aerosols relative to greenhouse gases is still not well known. Here we use the simulations from the Precipitation Drive ... Full text Cite

Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 17, 2019 Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend ... Full text Cite

Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels.

Journal Article Nature · September 2019 The combustion of fossil fuels produces emissions of the long-lived greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and of short-lived pollutants, including sulfur dioxide, that contribute to the formation of atmospheric aerosols1. Atmospheric aerosols can cool t ... Full text Cite

Aligning evidence generation and use across health, development, and environment

Journal Article Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · August 1, 2019 Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development ... Full text Cite

Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · July 16, 2019 The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short-lived climate forcers, ... Full text Cite

Comparison of Effective Radiative Forcing Calculations Using Multiple Methods, Drivers, and Models

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · April 27, 2019 We compare six methods of estimating effective radiative forcing (ERF) using a set of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. This is the first multiforcing agent, multimodel evaluation of ERF values calculated using different methods. We demonstrate ... Full text Cite

Spatial Patterns of Crop Yield Change by Emitted Pollutant.

Journal Article Earth's future · February 2019 Field measurements and modeling have examined how temperature, precipitation, and exposure to carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone affect major staple crops around the world. Most prior studies, however, have incorporated only a subset of these influe ... Full text Cite

Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur.

Journal Article Scientific reports · January 2019 The profound changes in global SO2 emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Repro ... Full text Cite

Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding

Journal Article Journal of Climate · December 1, 2018 The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precip ... Full text Cite

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2018 We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled glo ... Full text Cite

Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · November 2018 Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. ... Full text Cite

The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · October 31, 2018 Full text Cite

Peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements at northern midlatitude mountain sites in April: A constraint on continental source-receptor relationships

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 28, 2018 Abundance-based model evaluations with observations provide critical tests for the simulated mean state in models of intercontinental pollution transport, and under certain conditions may also offer constraints on model responses to emission changes. We co ... Full text Cite

Measurement-based assessment of health burdens from long-term ozone exposure in the United States, Europe, and China

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · October 11, 2018 Long-term ozone (O3) exposure estimates from chemical transport models are frequently paired with exposure-response relationships from epidemiological studies to estimate associated health burdens. Impact estimates using such methods can include biases fro ... Full text Cite

The need for policies to reduce the costs of cleaner cooking in low income settings: Implications from systematic analysis of costs and benefits

Journal Article Energy Policy · October 1, 2018 Inefficient household cooking in less-developed countries harms health and productivity, the environment, and the global climate. Interventions to encourage adoption of cleaner and more fuel-efficient stoves are being implemented widely to reduce these bur ... Full text Cite

Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · October 2018 Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heatin ... Full text Cite

Connecting regional aerosol emissions reductions to local and remote precipitation responses

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · August 28, 2018 The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-c ... Full text Cite

Sources of Black Carbon Deposition to the Himalayan Glaciers in Current and Future Climates.

Journal Article Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR · July 2018 WRF-Chem and a modified version of the ECLIPSE 5a emission inventory were used to investigate the sources impacting black carbon (BC) deposition to the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush (HKHK) region. This work extends previous studies by simulating depo ... Full text Cite

A PDRMIP multi-model study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation.

Journal Article Journal of climate · June 2018 Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation c ... Full text Cite

Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement.

Journal Article Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · May 2018 The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C'. Article 4 points to this ... Full text Cite

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.

Journal Article Nature communications · May 2018 Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts ... Full text Cite

Multimodel Surface Temperature Responses to Removal of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · March 16, 2018 Three Earth System models are used to derive surface temperature responses to removal of U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Using multicentury perturbation runs with and without U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions, the local and remote surface temperature chan ... Full text Cite

Carbon dioxide physiological forcing dominates projected Eastern Amazonian drying.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · March 2018 Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyse the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Blac ... Full text Cite

Author Correction: Short-lived climate pollutant mitigation and the Sustainable Development Goals

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · February 22, 2018 © 2018 The Author(s) In the version of this Perspective originally published, Fig. 1 incorrectly had two entries of ‘Reduced rate of sea-level rise by 20% by 2050’; the first entry (row 2, column 3) should instead have read ‘Reduced disruption of weather p ... Full text Cite

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions.

Journal Article Nature climate change · January 2018 Societal risks increase as Earth warms, but also for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate even if they lead to identical warming [1]. Accelerating carbon dio ... Full text Open Access Cite

Evaluating Modeled Impact Metrics for Human Health, Agriculture Growth, and Near-Term Climate

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · December 27, 2017 Simulated metrics that assess impacts on human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate were evaluated using ground-based and satellite observations. The NASA GISS ModelE2 and GEOS-Chem models were used to simulate the near-present chemistry of th ... Full text Cite

Short-lived climate pollutant mitigation and the Sustainable Development Goals

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · December 1, 2017 The post-2015 development agenda is dominated by a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that arose from the 2012 Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development. The 17 goals and 169 targets address diverse and intersecting aspects of hu ... Full text Cite

Multi-model impacts of climate change on pollution transport from global emission source regions

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · November 30, 2017 The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate models (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemis ... Full text Cite

Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.

Journal Article Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR · November 2017 We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a ... Full text Cite

Dominant control of agriculture and irrigation on urban heat island in India.

Journal Article Scientific reports · October 2017 As is true in many regions, India experiences surface Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect that is well understood, but the causes of the more recently discovered Urban Cool Island (UCI) effect remain poorly constrained. This raises questions about our fundament ... Full text Open Access Cite

Large Reductions in Solar Energy Production Due to Dust and Particulate Air Pollution

Journal Article Environmental Science and Technology Letters · August 8, 2017 Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) has the potential to diminish solar energy production by direct and indirect radiative forcing as well as by being deposited on solar panel surfaces, thereby reducing solar energy transmittance to photovoltaics. Worldwid ... Full text Cite

The social cost of methane: theory and applications.

Journal Article Faraday discussions · August 2017 Methane emissions contribute to global warming, damage public health and reduce the yield of agricultural and forest ecosystems. Quantifying these damages to the planetary commons by calculating the social cost of methane (SCM) facilitates more comprehensi ... Full text Cite

The air we breathe: Past, present, and future: general discussion.

Journal Article Faraday discussions · August 2017 Full text Cite

Atmospheric chemistry and the biosphere: general discussion.

Journal Article Faraday discussions · August 2017 Full text Cite

Global atmospheric chemistry - Which air matters

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · July 27, 2017 An approach for analysis and modeling of global atmospheric chemistry is developed for application to measurements that provide a tropospheric climatology of those heterogeneously distributed, reactive species that control the loss of methane and the produ ... Full text Cite

PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results.

Journal Article Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · June 2017 As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally avera ... Full text Cite

A climate policy pathway for near- and long-term benefits.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · May 2017 Full text Cite

Multimodel precipitation responses to removal of U.S. sulfur dioxide emissions.

Journal Article Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR · May 2017 Emissions of aerosols and their precursors are declining due to policies enacted to protect human health, yet we currently lack a full understanding of the magnitude, spatiotemporal pattern, statistical significance, and physical mechanisms of precipitatio ... Full text Cite

Accounting for the climate&ndash;carbon feedback in emission metric

Journal Article Earth System Dynamics · April 10, 2017 Most emission metrics have previously been inconsistently estimated by including the climate–carbon feedback for the reference gas (i.e. CO2) but not the other species (e.g. CH4). In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, a first attempt was made t ... Full text Cite

Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990&ndash;2015

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · February 22, 2017 Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundan ... Full text Cite

AerChemMIP: Quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · February 9, 2017 The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifi ... Full text Cite

Agriculture production as a major driver of the earth system exceeding planetary boundaries

Journal Article Ecology and Society · January 1, 2017 We explore the role of agriculture in destabilizing the Earth system at the planetary scale, through examining nine planetary boundaries, or “safe limits”: land-system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical flows, biosphere integrity, climate change, ocean ... Full text Cite

Health and climate impacts of ocean-going vessels in East Asia

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · November 1, 2016 East Asia has the most rapidly growing shipping emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants, but the least in-depth analysis. Full evaluation of all pollutants is needed to assess the impacts of shipping emissions. Here, using an advanced method b ... Full text Cite

Modeling the QBO-Improvements resulting from higher-model vertical resolution.

Journal Article Journal of advances in modeling earth systems · September 2016 Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, it is shown that with proper choice of the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and relatively fine vertical layering of at least 500 m in the upper troposphere-lower ... Full text Open Access Cite

Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

Journal Article Earth System Dynamics · August 30, 2016 A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, ... Full text Cite

Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · August 4, 2016 We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the mo ... Full text Cite

Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate-altering pollutants

Journal Article Earth's Future · August 1, 2016 Climate change damages agriculture, causing deteriorating food security and increased malnutrition. Many studies have examined the role of distinct physical processes, but impacts have not been previously attributed to individual pollutants. Using a simple ... Full text Cite

Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · April 28, 2016 We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 ... Full text Cite

Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °c

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · April 27, 2016 An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 °C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public heal ... Full text Open Access Cite

Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · April 2016 The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and ... Full text Cite

Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · March 28, 2016 Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have pertu ... Full text Cite

Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 17, 2016 Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, w ... Full text Cite

On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 4, 2016 Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined ... Full text Cite

Regional and global climate response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions · January 18, 2016 We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the mo ... Full text Cite

Seasonal cycles of O3 in the marine boundary layer: Observation and model simulation comparisons

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 16, 2016 We present a two-step approach for quantitatively comparing modeled and measured seasonal cycles of O3: (1) fitting sine functions to monthly averaged measurements and model results (i.e., deriving a Fourier series expansion of these results) and (2) compa ... Full text Cite

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble.

Journal Article Atmospheric chemistry and physics · January 2016 Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. ... Full text Cite

How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?

Journal Article Climatic Change · December 1, 2015 This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO2 gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been run with the same prescribed anthropogenic emi ... Full text Cite

Reduce short-lived climate pollutants for multiple benefits.

Journal Article Lancet (London, England) · November 2015 Full text Cite

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · October 14, 2015 Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual ... Full text Cite

Impact of aerosol radiative effects on 2000–2010 surface temperatures

Journal Article Climate Dynamics · October 1, 2015 Aerosol radiative forcing from direct and indirect effects of aerosols is examined over the recent past (last 10–15 years) using updated sulfate aerosol emissions in two Earth System Models with very different surface temperature responses to aerosol forci ... Full text Cite

Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: The ozone response

Journal Article Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · October 1, 2015 A multiple linear regression statistical method is applied to model data taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5) to estimate the 11-year solar cycle responses of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and zonal wind during the 197 ... Full text Cite

Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry-climate modeling of surface ozone

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · September 25, 2015 We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × ... Full text Cite

On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions · September 2, 2015 Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined ... Full text Cite

Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: The stratospheric pathway

Journal Article Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · July 1, 2015 The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind a ... Full text Cite

The social cost of atmospheric release

Journal Article Climatic Change · May 1, 2015 I present a multi-impact economic valuation framework called the Social Cost of Atmospheric Release (SCAR) that extends the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) used previously for carbon dioxide (CO2) to a broader range of pollutants and impacts. Values consistent ... Full text Cite

Evaluation of the global aerosol microphysical ModelE2-TOMAS model against satellite and ground-based observations

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · March 20, 2015 The TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model has been integrated into the state-of-the-art general circulation model, GISS ModelE2. This paper provides a detailed description of the ModelE2-TOMAS model and evaluates the model against various ... Full text Cite

Declining uncertainty in transient climate response as CO2 forcing dominates future climate change

Journal Article Nature Geoscience · March 4, 2015 Carbon dioxide has exerted the largest portion of radiative forcing and surface temperature change over the industrial era, but other anthropogenic influences have also contributed. However, large uncertainties in total forcing make it difficult to derive ... Full text Cite

Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · March 1, 2015 © 2015. The Authors.We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101-2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a ne ... Full text Cite

Spatial patterns of radiative forcing and surface temperature response

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 1, 2015 Examination of effective radiative forcing (ERF), a measure of changes in Earth’s energy balance, facilitates understanding the role of various drivers of climate change. For short-lived compounds, ERF can be highly inhomogeneous geographically. The relati ... Full text Cite

Interannual variability of tropospheric trace gases and aerosols: The role of biomass burning emissions

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 1, 2015 Fires are responsible for a range of gaseous and aerosol emissions. However, their influence on the interannual variability of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols has not been systematically investigated from a global perspective. We examine biomass burni ... Full text Cite

Why does aerosol forcing control historical global-mean surface temperature change in CMIP5 models?

Journal Article Journal of Climate · January 1, 2015 Linear regression is used to examine the relationship between simulated changes in historical global-mean surface temperature (GMST) and global-mean aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) in 14 climate models from CMIP5. The models have global-mean aero ... Full text Cite

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · November 2014 Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are ... Full text Cite

Air pollution: clean up our skies.

Journal Article Nature · November 2014 Full text Cite

The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 15, 2014 This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and genera ... Full text Cite

Reply to 'Questions of bias in climate models'

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · September 11, 2014 Full text Cite

Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality

Journal Article Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health · September 1, 2014 Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic prima ... Full text Cite

Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · July 16, 2014 Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent vari ... Full text Cite

Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · May 16, 2014 Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models ... Full text Cite

Summary for policymakers

Chapter · April 8, 2014 Full text Cite

Evaluation of Climate Models

Chapter · March 24, 2014 Full text Cite

Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis

Book · March 24, 2014 This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students and researchers in en ... Full text Cite

Reconciling warming trends

Journal Article Nature Geoscience · March 1, 2014 Full text Cite

Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · March 1, 2014 We present a description of the ModelE2 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) and the configurations used in the simulations performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use ... Full text Cite

The role of temporal evolution in modeling atmospheric emissions from tropical fires

Journal Article Atmospheric Environment · January 1, 2014 Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composi ... Full text Cite

Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · January 1, 2014 Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduc ... Full text Cite

CMIP5 historical simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · January 1, 2014 Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three ve ... Full text Cite

Increase of ozone concentrations, its temperature sensitivity and the precursor factor in South China

Journal Article Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology · January 1, 2014 Concerns have been raised about the possible connections between the local and regional photochemical problem and global warming. The current study assesses the trend of ozone in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in South China and investigates the ... Full text Cite

Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone: An observation-based review

Journal Article Elementa · January 1, 2014 Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth's atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tro ... Full text Cite

Technical Summary

Chapter · 2014 Cite

Toward the next generation of air quality monitoring indicators

Journal Article Atmospheric Environment · December 1, 2013 This paper introduces an initiative to bridge the state of scientific knowledge on air pollution with the needs of policymakers and stakeholders to design the "next generation" of air quality indicators. As a first step this initiative assesses current mon ... Full text Cite

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

Journal Article NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security · October 17, 2013 Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovern ... Full text Cite

Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 3, 2013 We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lif ... Full text Cite

Three decades of global methane sources and sinks

Journal Article Nature Geoscience · October 1, 2013 Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20% of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates o ... Full text Cite

Radiative forcing due to major aerosol emitting sectors in China and India

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · August 28, 2013 Understanding the radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic aerosol sources is essential for making effective emission control decisions to mitigate climate change. We examined the net direct plus indirect radiative forcing caused by carbonaceous aerosol a ... Full text Cite

A 4-D climatology (1979-2009) of the monthly tropospheric aerosol optical depth distribution over the Mediterranean region from a comparative evaluation and blending of remote sensing and model products

Journal Article Atmospheric Measurement Techniques · August 28, 2013 Since the 1980s several spaceborne sensors have been used to retrieve the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Mediterranean region. In parallel, AOD climatologies coming from different numerical model simulations are now also available, permitting to dist ... Full text Cite

Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the atmospheric chemistry and climate model intercomparison project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of historical and projected future changes

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · August 27, 2013 We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared t ... Full text Cite

Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: A multi-model study

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · August 16, 2013 The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spat ... Full text Cite

Direct top-down estimates of biomass burning CO emissions using TES and MOPITT versus bottom-up GFED inventory

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · July 27, 2013 In this study, we utilize near-simultaneous observations from two sets of multiple satellite sensors to segregate Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO observations over active fire sources fr ... Full text Cite

On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

Journal Article Climate of the Past · July 15, 2013 The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial tempe ... Full text Cite

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · June 16, 2013 Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that ... Full text Cite

Attribution of historical ozone forcing to anthropogenic emissions

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · June 1, 2013 Anthropogenic ozone radiative forcing is traditionally separately attributed to tropospheric and stratospheric changes assuming that these have distinct causes. Using the interactive composition-climate model GISS-E2-R we find that this assumption is not j ... Full text Cite

Energy budget constraints on climate response

Journal Article Nature Geoscience · June 1, 2013 Full text Cite

Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · May 27, 2013 Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In cont ... Full text Cite

Linkages between ozone-depleting substances, tropospheric oxidation and aerosols

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · May 14, 2013 Coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere allows changes in stratospheric ozone abundances to affect tropospheric chemistry. Large-scale effects from such changes on chemically produced tropospheric aerosols have not been systematically examine ... Full text Cite

Evaluation of ACCMIP outgoing longwave radiation from tropospheric ozone using TES satellite observations

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · April 18, 2013 We use simultaneous observations of tropospheric ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate model tropospheric ozone and its effect on OLR simulated by a suite ... Full text Cite

Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · April 8, 2013 Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropog ... Full text Cite

Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · April 8, 2013 We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor gl ... Full text Cite

On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · March 27, 2013 We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolut ... Full text Cite

Analysis of present day and future OH and methane lifetime in the ACCMIP simulations

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 15, 2013 Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scen ... Full text Cite

Interactive ozone and methane chemistry in GISS-E2 historical and future climate simulations

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 15, 2013 The new generation GISS climate model includes fully interactive chemistry related to ozone in historical and future simulations, and interactive methane in future simulations. Evaluation of ozone, its tropospheric precursors, and methane shows that the mo ... Full text Cite

Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 15, 2013 The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Cou ... Full text Cite

Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 5, 2013 As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentra ... Full text Cite

Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · February 21, 2013 Abstract. Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean compares ... Full text Cite

The atmospheric chemistry and climate model intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · February 18, 2013 The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes a ... Full text Cite

El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in Southeast Asia.

Journal Article Nature climate change · January 2013 Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality1. In this study, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modeling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This reg ... Full text Open Access Cite

Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · January 1, 2013 Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to e ... Full text Cite

A multimodel assessment of the influence of regional anthropogenic emission reductions on aerosol direct radiative forcing and the role of intercontinental transport

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2013 In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models i ... Full text Cite

Volcanic and Solar Forcing

Chapter · January 1, 2013 Volcanic eruptions and changes in the output of the Sun have been the dominant external drivers, or 'forcings,' of climate change during the Quaternary prior to the industrial revolution. A combination of proxy indicators have been used to study the magnit ... Full text Cite

Modelling future changes in surface ozone: A parameterized approach

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · December 1, 2012 This study describes a simple parameterization to estimate regionally averaged changes in surface ozone due to past or future changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions based on results from 14 global chemistry transport models. The method successfully r ... Full text Cite

Precipitation response to regional radiative forcing

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · November 19, 2012 Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings impo ... Full text Cite

Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · November 19, 2012 The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28° S, 28° S-28° ... Full text Cite

The role of forcing and internal dynamics in explaining the "Medieval Climate Anomaly"

Journal Article Climate Dynamics · November 1, 2012 Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm pe ... Full text Cite

Global air quality and climate.

Journal Article Chemical Society reviews · October 2012 Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications ... Full text Cite

The distribution of snow black carbon observed in the Arctic and compared to the GISS-PUCCINI model

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · September 17, 2012 In this study, we evaluate the ability of the latest NASA GISS composition-climate model, GISS-E2-PUCCINI, to simulate the spatial distribution of snow BC (sBC) in the Arctic relative to present-day observations. Radiative forcing due to BC deposition onto ... Full text Cite

Spatially refined aerosol direct radiative forcing efficiencies.

Journal Article Environmental science & technology · September 2012 Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the l ... Full text Cite

Global air quality and health co-benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and black carbon emission controls.

Journal Article Environmental health perspectives · June 2012 BackgroundTropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM(2.5)), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate.ObjectivesWe e ... Full text Open Access Cite

Sensitivity of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon to aerosol size and altitude of injection

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · May 16, 2012 Simulations of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon (BC) aerosols using a general circulation model with fixed sea surface temperatures show that the climate effects strongly depend on aerosol size and altitude of injection. 1 Tg BC a Full text Cite

The clean air dividend

Journal Article New Scientist · April 2012 Full text Cite

Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.1)

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · February 20, 2012 We update the forcings for the PMIP3 experiments for the Last Millennium to include new assessments of historical land use changes and discuss new suggestions for calibrating solar activity proxies to total solar irradiance. © Author(s) 2012. ... Full text Cite

The added value to global model projections of climate change by dynamical downscaling: A case study over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2012 [1] Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional cl ... Full text Cite

The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2012 Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO42-). We ... Full text Cite

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate–Chemistry Interactions

Journal Article · January 1, 2012 The coupling between climate change and atmospheric composition results from the basic structure of the Earth atmosphere climate system, and the fundamental processes within it. The composition of the atmosphere is determined by natural and human-related e ... Full text Cite

Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · January 2012 Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting met ... Full text Cite

The changing face of arctic snow cover: A synthesis of observed and projected changes

Journal Article Ambio · December 1, 2011 Analysis of in situ and satellite data shows evidence of different regional snow cover responses to the widespread warming and increasing winter precipitation that has characterized the Arctic climate for the past 40-50 years. The largest and most rapid de ... Full text Cite

Technical Summary

Chapter · November 21, 2011 Full text Cite

Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: Results and corresponding radiative forcing

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · November 18, 2011 A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE ... Full text Cite

The impact of orbital sampling, monthly averaging and vertical resolution on climate chemistry model evaluation with satellite observations

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · July 15, 2011 Ensemble climate model simulations used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have become important tools for exploring the response of the Earth System to changes in anthropogenic and natural forcings. The systematic evaluat ... Full text Cite

Global multi-year O3-CO correlation patterns from models and TES satellite observations

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · July 11, 2011 The correlation between measured tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been used extensively in tropospheric chemistry studies to explore the photochemical characteristics of different regions and to evaluate the ability of models to capture ... Full text Cite

Coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate twentieth-century transient model investigation: Trends in short-lived species and climate responses

Journal Article Journal of Climate · June 1, 2011 The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black car ... Full text Cite

Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle-emission standards

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · April 1, 2011 Non-CO 2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition-climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road ... Full text Cite

The UNEP/WMO assessment of measures to limit near-term climate change and improve air quality

Journal Article EM: Air and Waste Management Association's Magazine for Environmental Managers · April 1, 2011 The United Nations Environment Programme/World Meteorological Organization (UNEP/WMO) assessment of measures to limit near-term climate change and improve air quality is discussed. The analysis of measures performed for the UNEP assessment was carried out ... Cite

Expanding standards

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · April 2011 Full text Cite

Understanding the drivers for the 20th century change of hydrogen peroxide in Antarctic ice-cores

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · February 1, 2011 Observations and model simulations of an Antarctic ice-core record of hydrogen peroxide during the last ∼150 years are analyzed. The observations indicate a relative increase in hydrogen peroxide by approximately 50% since 1900, with most of the change sin ... Full text Cite

Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0)

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · January 21, 2011 Abstract. Simulations of climate over the Last Millennium (850–1850 CE) have been incorporated into the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The drivers of climate over this period are chiefly orbital, solar, v ... Full text Cite

The vertical distribution of ozone instantaneous radiative forcing from satellite and chemistry climate models

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2011 We evaluate the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) of tropospheric ozone predicted by four state-of-the-art global chemistry climate models (AM2-Chem, CAM-Chem, ECHAM5-MOZ, and GISS-PUCCINI) against ozone distribution observed from the NASA Tropospheric ... Full text Cite

Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: Methodology and application

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · December 1, 2010 We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850-2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded ... Full text Cite

Solar influences on climate

Journal Article Reviews of Geophysics · December 1, 2010 Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate requires knowledge of solar variability, solar-terrestrial interactions, and the mechanisms determining the response of the Earth's climate system. We provide a summary of our current ... Full text Cite

Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · November 2010 Recent bursts in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide have raised concerns about the influence climate change and humans might have on future fire activity. Comparatively little is known, however, about the relative importance of these factors in sha ... Full text Cite

Constraining the sensitivity of regional climate with the use of historical observations

Journal Article Journal of Climate · November 1, 2010 A novel method is presented for calculating how sensitive regional climate is to radiative forcings, based on global surface temperature observations. Forcings that originate in both the region of interest and outside of it are taken into account. It is fo ... Full text Cite

Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · February 2010 A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history o ... Full text Cite

Spatial scales of climate response to inhomogeneous radiative forcing

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2010 The distances over which localized radiative forcing influences surface temperature have not been well characterized. We present a general methodology to analyze the spatial scales of the forcing/response relationship and apply it to simulations of histori ... Full text Cite

The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2010 Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing spec ... Full text Cite

The influence of solar forcing on tropical circulation

Journal Article Journal of Climate · November 1, 2009 The response of the seasonal tropical circulation to an 11-yr solar cycle forcing is studied with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE, which includes fully interactive atmospheric chemistry. To identify characteristic solar signals in the ... Full text Cite

Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · November 2009 Global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years, but the spatial patterns have remained poorly defined. We used a global climate proxy network to reconstruct surface temperature patterns over this interval. The Medieval period is foun ... Full text Cite

Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · October 2009 Evaluating multicomponent climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone, and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can aff ... Full text Cite

Atmospheric composition change: Climate-Chemistry interactions

Journal Article Atmospheric Environment · October 1, 2009 Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climat ... Full text Cite

Intercontinental impacts of ozone pollution on human mortality.

Journal Article Environmental science & technology · September 2009 Ozone exposure is associated with negative health impacts, including premature mortality. Observations and modeling studies demonstrate that emissions from one continent influence ozone air quality over other continents. We estimate the premature mortaliti ... Full text Cite

Climate forcing by the on-road transportation and power generation sectors

Journal Article Atmospheric Environment · June 1, 2009 The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert com ... Full text Cite

Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century

Journal Article Nature Geoscience · April 1, 2009 Regional climate change can arise from three different effects: regional changes to the amount of radiative heating that reaches the Earths surface, an inhomogeneous response to globally uniform changes in radiative heating and variability without a specif ... Full text Cite

Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · February 27, 2009 Understanding the surface 03 response over a "receptor" region to emission changes a foreign "source" region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (03) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global hemispheri ... Full text Cite

Interpreting 10Be changes during the Maunder Minimum

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 27, 2009 Beryllium-10 archives are important resources for understanding how solar activity may have varied in the past. Climate simulations using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE general circulation model are used to calibrate the impacts of producti ... Full text Cite

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.

Journal Article Nature · January 2009 Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to ... Full text Cite

Fire parameterization on a global scale

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2009 [1] We present a convenient physically based global-scale fire parameterization algorithm for global climate models. We indicate environmental conditions favorable for fire occurrence based on calculation of the vapor pressure deficit as a function of loca ... Full text Cite

Inverse modeling and mapping US air quality influences of inorganic PM 2.5 precursor emissions using the adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2009 Influences of specific sources of inorganic PM2.5 on peak and ambient aerosol concentrations in the US are evaluated using a combination of inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. First, sulfate and nitrate aerosol measurements from the IMPROVE network ... Full text Cite

The influence of foreign vs. North American emissions on surface ozone in the US

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2009 As part of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP; www.htap.org) project, we analyze results from 15 global and 1 hemispheric chemical transport models and compare these to Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) observations in the United ... Full text Cite

Impacts of aerosol-cloud interactions on past and future changes in tropospheric composition

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2009 The development of effective emissions control policies that are beneficial to both climate and air quality requires a detailed understanding of all the feedbacks in the atmospheric composition and climate system. We perform sensitivity studies with a glob ... Full text Cite

Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ∼74 ka B.P. produce widespread glaciation?

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2009 It has been suggested that the Toba volcanic eruption, approximately 74 ka B.P., was responsible for the extended cooling period and ice sheet advance immediately following it, but previous climate model simulations, using 100 times the amount of aerosols ... Full text Cite

Little ice age

Chapter · January 1, 2009 Full text Cite

Maunder minimum

Chapter · January 1, 2009 Full text Cite

Climate forcing and air quality change due to regional emissions reductions by economic sector

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · December 1, 2008 We examine the air quality (AQ) and radiative forcing (RF) response to emissions reductions by economic sector for North America and developing Asia in the CAM and GISS composition/climate models. Decreases in annual average surface particulate are relativ ... Full text Cite

A multi-model study of the hemispheric transport and deposition of oxidised nitrogen

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · September 16, 2008 Fifteen chemistry-transport models are used to quantify, for the first time, the export of oxidised nitrogen (NOy) to and from four regions (Europe, North America, South Asia, and East Asia), and to estimate the uncertainty in the results. Between 12 and 2 ... Full text Cite

A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · September 2, 2008 We examine the response of Arctic gas and aerosol concentrations to perturbations in pollutant emissions from Europe, East and South Asia, and North America using results from a coordinated model intercomparison. These sensitivities to regional emissions ( ... Full text Cite

Stratospheric winter climate response to ENSO in three chemistry-climate models

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · July 16, 2008 Three different chemistry-climate models are compared with respect to their simulation of the stratospheric response to extreme cases of ENSO. Ensemble simulations of an unusually warm ENSO event (1940-1941) compared to a very cold event (1975-1976) reveal ... Full text Cite

Multimodel projections of climate change from short-lived emissions due to human activities

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · June 16, 2008 We use the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) climate models to study the climate impact of the future evolution of short-lived radiatively active spe ... Full text Cite

Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · June 1, 2008 We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol ... Full text Cite

Short-lived pollutants in the Arctic: Their climate impact and possible mitigation strategies

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 13, 2008 Several short-lived pollutants known to impact Arctic climate may be contributing to the accelerated rates of warming observed in this region relative to the global annually averaged temperature increase. Here, we present a summary of the short-lived pollu ... Full text Cite

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

Journal Article Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics · March 1, 2008 The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical ... Full text Cite

Climate change: Cool ozone

Journal Article Nature Geoscience · February 1, 2008 Full text Cite

Air pollution radiative forcing from specific emissions sectors at 2030

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 27, 2008 Reduction of short-lived air pollutants can contribute to mitigate global warming in the near-term with ancillary benefits to human health. However, the radiative forcings of short-lived air pollutants depend on the location and source type of the precurso ... Full text Cite

Climate change: Cool ozone

Journal Article Nature Geoscience · January 1, 2008 The influence of global warming on temperature trends at higher altitudes has been hotly debated. Stratospheric ozone depletion is another piece in the remaining tropical climate puzzle. © 2008 Nature Publishing Group. ... Full text Cite

Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

Journal Article Climate Dynamics · December 1, 2007 We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We c ... Full text Cite

Estimating the potential for twenty-first century sudden climate change.

Journal Article Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · November 2007 I investigate the potential for sudden climate change during the current century. This investigation takes into account evidence from the Earth's history, from climate models and our understanding of the physical processes governing climate shifts. Sudden ... Full text Cite

Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · October 27, 2007 We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aero ... Full text Cite

Local and remote contributions to Arctic warming

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · July 28, 2007 I investigate the relative impact of local and remote radiative forcing by tropospheric aerosols and ozone on Arctic climate using GISS climate model simulations. During boreal summer, Arctic climate is well-correlated with either the global or Arctic forc ... Full text Cite

A global climate model study of CH4 emissions during the Holocene and glacial-interglacial transitions constrained by ice core data

Journal Article Global Biogeochemical Cycles · March 1, 2007 Ice core records show atmospheric methane mixing ratio and interpolar gradient varying with climate. Changes in wetland sources have been implicated as the basis for this observed variation in the record, but more recently, modeling studies suggest that ch ... Full text Cite

Nitrate aerosols today and in 2030: A global simulation including aerosols and tropospheric ozone

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2007 Nitrate aerosols are expected to become more important in the future atmosphere due to the expected increase in nitrate precursor emissions and the decline of ammoniumsulphate aerosols in wide regions of this planet. The GISS climate model is used in this ... Full text Cite

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2007 We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scena ... Full text Cite

Solar and anthropogenic forcing of tropical hydrology

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · December 28, 2006 Holocene climate proxies suggest substantial correlations between tropical meteorology and solar variations, but these have thus far not been explained. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere-composition model forced by sustained multi-decadal irradiance increas ... Full text Cite

Nitrogen and sulfur deposition on regional and global scales: A multimodel evaluation

Journal Article Global Biogeochemical Cycles · December 1, 2006 We use 23 atmospheric chemistry transport models to calculate current and future (2030) deposition of reactive nitrogen (NOy, NHx) and sulfate (SOx) to land and ocean surfaces. The models are driven by three emission scenarios: (1) current air quality legi ... Full text Cite

Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation

Journal Article Climate Dynamics · December 1, 2006 The effect of climate change on the Brewer-Dobson circulation and, in particular, the large-scale seasonal-mean transport between the troposphere and stratosphere is compared in a number of middle atmosphere general circulation models. All the models repro ... Full text Cite

Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · October 16, 2006 We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and ... Full text Cite

Forced annular variations in the 20th century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · September 27, 2006 We examine the annular mode within each hemisphere (defined here as the leading empirical orthogonal function and principal component of hemispheric sea level pressure) as simulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report ... Full text Cite

Modeling the distribution of the volcanic aerosol cloud from the 1783-1784 Laki eruption

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · June 27, 2006 We conducted simulations of the atmospheric transformation and transport of the emissions of the 1783-1784 Laki basaltic flood lava eruption (64.10°N, 17.15°W) using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies modelE climate model coupled to a sulfur cycl ... Full text Cite

Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · June 27, 2006 We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies composition-climate model to an assessment of tropospheric O3, CH4, and sulfate at 2030. We compare four different anthropogenic emissions forecasts: A1B and B1 from the Intergovernment ... Full text Cite

The global atmospheric environment for the next generation.

Journal Article Environmental science & technology · June 2006 Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and thre ... Full text Cite

Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · April 27, 2006 Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of oz ... Full text Cite

Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th-century climate change

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · April 27, 2006 Human activities have increased tropospheric ozone, contributing to 20th-century warming. Using the spatial and temporal distribution of precursor emissions, we simulated tropospheric ozone from 1890 to 1990 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studi ... Full text Cite

Cross influences of ozone and sulfate precursor emissions changes on air quality and climate.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · March 2006 Tropospheric O(3) and sulfate both contribute to air pollution and climate forcing. There is a growing realization that air quality and climate change issues are strongly connected. To date, the importance of the coupling between O(3) and sulfate has not b ... Full text Cite

Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in situ, satellite, and reanalysis data

Journal Article Journal of Climate · January 15, 2006 A full description of the ModelE version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and results are presented for present-day climate simulations (ca. 1979). This version is a complete rewrite of previous ... Full text Cite

Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · January 2006 Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibw ... Full text Cite

Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2006 A model of atmospheric composition and climate has been developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) that includes composition seamlessly from the surface to the lower mesosphere. The model is able to capture many features of the observ ... Full text Cite

Decadal-scale modulation of the NAO/AO by external forcing: Current state of understanding

Journal Article Nuovo Cimento della Societa Italiana di Fisica C · January 1, 2006 Analyses of observations show correlations between the mean state of indices representing either the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Arctic Oscillation (AO, also called Northern Annular Mode) with various external forcings. These include volcanic e ... Cite

Glacial climates

Chapter · January 1, 2006 Volcanic eruptions and changes in the output of the Sun have been the dominant external drivers, or ‘forcings,' of climate change during the Quaternary prior to the industrial revolution. A combination of proxy indicators have been used to study the magnit ... Full text Cite

Inferring carbon monoxide pollution changes from space-based observations

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · December 16, 2005 We compare space-based measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) during April 1994 and October 1984 and 1994 from the early MAPS instrument with those during 2000-2004 from the MOPITT instrument. We show that a three-dimensional global composition model can be ... Full text Cite

Modeling atmospheric stable water isotopes and the potential for constraining cloud processes and stratosphere-troposphere water exchange

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · November 16, 2005 Stable water isotope tracers (HDO and H218O) are incorporated into the ModelE version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmospheric (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). Details of the moist convective parameterisation, clo ... Full text Cite

Assessing future nitrogen deposition and carbon cycle feedback using a multimodel approach: Analysis of nitrogen deposition

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres · October 10, 2005 In this study, we present the results of nitrogen deposition on land from a set of 29 simulations from six different tropospheric chemistry models pertaining to present-day and 2100 conditions. Nitrogen deposition refers here to the deposition (wet and dry ... Full text Cite

Efficacy of climate forcings

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres · September 27, 2005 We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change. We find a substantial range in the "efficacy" of different forcings, where the efficacy is the global temperature response per unit forc ... Full text Cite

Reply to comment by W. F. Ruddiman on "A note on the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and isolation"

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · August 16, 2005 In summary, we continue to maintain that in the absence of further studies ruling out boreal wetlands, tropical river deltas and peat lands as sources of the late Holocene increase in CH4 emissions, a definitive attribution [Ruddiman, 2005b] of this trend ... Full text Cite

Impacts of chemistry-aerosol coupling on tropospheric ozone and sulfate simulations in a general circulation model

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres · July 27, 2005 We have implemented fully interactive tropospheric gas-phase chemistry and sulfate aerosol modules into the new generation state-of the-art Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) modelE general circulation model (GCM). The code has been developed with ... Full text Cite

An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · February 28, 2005 We simulate atmospheric composition changes in response to increased methane and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions from the preindustrial to present-day in a coupled chemistry-aerosol-climate model. The global annual average composition response to al ... Full text Cite

A note on the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and insolation

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · December 16, 2004 We re-examine the link between July 30°N insolation and methane in the Vostok ice core. Based on this link, Ruddiman [2003] suggested that an anthropogenic source of methane must have been present after 5 kyr BP in order to prevent concentrations from decl ... Full text Cite

Impacts of climate change on methane emissions from wetlands

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · November 16, 2004 We have included climate-sensitive methane emissions from wetlands within the GISS climate model using a linear parameterization derived from a detailed process model. The geographic distribution of wetlands is also climate-dependent. Doubled CO2 simulatio ... Full text Cite

General circulation modelling of Holocene climate variability

Journal Article Quaternary Science Reviews · November 1, 2004 Results from a series of Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to assess climate variability in the pre-anthropogenic Holocene, the interval following the end of the last glacial beginning roughly 11.5 kyr BP ... Full text Cite

Southern Hemisphere climate response to ozone changes and greenhouse gas increases

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · September 28, 2004 While most of the Earth warmed rapidly during recent decades, surface temperatures decreased significantly over most of Antarctica. This cooling is consistent with circulation changes associated with a shift in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It has been ... Full text Cite

Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · March 16, 2004 We have analyzed the mean climate response pattern following large tropical volcanic eruptions back to the beginning of the 17th century using a combination of proxy-based reconstructions and modern instrumental records of cold-season surface air temperatu ... Full text Cite

The relative importance of solar and anthropogenic forcing of climate change between the Maunder minimum and the present

Journal Article Journal of Climate · March 1, 2004 The climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The Goddard Institute for Space ... Full text Cite

The impact of horizontal transport on the chemical composition in the tropopause region: Lightning NO x and streamers

Journal Article Advances in Space Research · January 1, 2004 The chemical composition of the region of the extra-tropical tropopause is influenced by chemistry and transport processes of either troposphere and stratosphere. On the basis of simulations with the coupled chemistry-climate model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM two ... Full text Cite

Volcanic and solar forcing of climate change during the preindustrial era

Journal Article Journal of Climate · December 15, 2003 The climate response to variability in volcanic aerosols and solar irradiance, the primary forcings during the preindustrial era, is examined in a stratosphere-resolving general circulation model. The best agreement with historical and proxy data is obtain ... Full text Cite

GRIPS Solar Experiments Intercomparison Project: Initial results

Journal Article Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics · December 1, 2003 The GRIPS solar intercomparison project presented here is part of the "GCM Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS)" focusing only on the influence of 11-year-solar-cycle variations on the atmosphere. The aim of the present comparison is to assess ... Full text Cite

Chemistry - Climate interactions in the atmosphere.

Conference ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY · September 1, 2003 Link to item Cite

A comparison of model-simulated trends in stratospheric temperatures

Journal Article Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · April 1, 2003 Estimates of annual-mean stratospheric temperature trends over the past twenty years, from a wide variety of models, are compared both with each other and with the observed cooling seen in trend analyses using radiosonde and satellite observations. The mod ... Full text Cite

Atmospheric composition, radiative forcing, and climate change as a consequence of a massive release from gas hydrates

Journal Article Paleoceanography · March 1, 2003 The massive perturbation to global climate and the carbon cycle during the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) (approx. 55.5 Ma) may have been forced by a catastrophic release of methane gas (CH4) from hydrate deposits on the continental slope. We inve ... Cite

Preindustrial-to-present-day radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone from improved simulations with the GISS chemistry-climate GCM

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2003 Improved estimates of the radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone increases since the preindustrial have been calculated with the tropospheric chemistry model used at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) within the GISS general circulation mode ... Full text Cite

Sensitivity studies of oxidative changes in the troposphere in 2100 using the GISS GCM

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2003 We examine the relative importance of chemical precursor emissions affecting ozone (O3) and hydroxyl (OH) for the year 2100. Runs were developed from the Comparison of Tropospheric Oxidants (Ox Comp) modeling workshop year 2100 A2p emissions scenario, part ... Full text Cite

Atmospheric composition, radiative forcing, and climate change as a consequence of a massive release from gas hydrates

Journal Article Paleoceanography · 2003 The massive perturbation to global climate and the carbon cycle during the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) (approx. 55.5 Ma) may have been forced by a catastrophic release of methane gas (CH4) from hydrate deposits on the continental slope. We inve ... Cite

Climate change. Whither Arctic climate?

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · January 2003 Full text Cite

Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2003 In recent years a number of chemistry-climate models have been developed with an emphasis on the stratosphere. Such models cover a wide range of time scales of integration and vary considerably in complexity. The results of specific diagnostics are here an ... Full text Cite

Separating the influence of halogen and climate changes on ozone recovery in the upper stratosphere

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · June 27, 2002 While halogens from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) dominated past ozone changes, our simulations show climate change playing an increasingly important role over coming decades. Including potential climate-induced stratospheric water vapor increases, the ozone ... Full text Cite

Dynamic-chemical coupling of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region.

Journal Article Chemosphere · June 2002 The importance of the interaction between chemistry and dynamics in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere for chemical species like ozone is investigated using two chemistry-climate models and a Lagrangian trajectory model. Air parcels from the uppe ... Full text Cite

An exploration of ozone changes and their radiative forcing prior to the chlorofluorocarbon era

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · January 1, 2002 Using historical observations and model simulations, we investigate ozone trends prior to the mid-1970s onset of halogen-induced ozone depletion. Though measurements are quite limited, an analysis based on multiple, independent data sets (direct and indire ... Full text Cite

How linear is the arctic oscillation response to greenhouse gases

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2002 We examine the sensitivity of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in integrations of five climate models (the Hadley Centre coupled models (HadCM2 and HadCM3), the European Centre/Hamburg models (ECHAM3 and ECHAM ... Full text Cite

Impact of future climate and emission changes on stratospheric aerosols and ozone

Journal Article Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · January 1, 2002 Global climatological distributions of key aerosol quantities (extinction, optical depth, mass, and surface area density) are shown in comparison with results from a three-dimensional global model including stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol components ... Full text Cite

2 × CO2 and solar variability influences on the troposphere through wave-mean flow interactions

Journal Article Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan · January 1, 2002 A variety of climate forcings are now thought to be able to influence planetary wave dynamics in the troposphere by affecting the propagation of planetary waves out of the troposphere. However, this propagation pattern is sensitive to the details of the co ... Full text Cite

Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 2002 We define the radiative forcings used in climate simulations with the SI2000 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model. These include temporal variations of well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar irr ... Full text Cite

Impact of future climate and emission changes on stratospheric aerosols and ozone

Journal Article Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · 2002 Global climatological distributions of key aerosol quantities (extinction, optical depth, mass, and surface area density) are shown in comparison with results from a three-dimensional global model including stratospheric and tropospheric aerosol components ... Cite

Chemistry-climate interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model 2. New insights into modeling the preindustrial atmosphere

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · December 27, 2001 We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present-day to preindustrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model. We identify three main improvements not included by many ... Full text Cite

Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · December 2001 We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 degrees to 0.4 degrees C) in both a climate model and empirical rec ... Full text Cite

Radiative cooling by stratospheric water vapor: Big differences in GCM results

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · July 15, 2001 The stratosphere has been cooling by about 2K/decade at 30-60 km over the past several decades and by lesser amounts toward the tropopause. Climate model calculations suggest that stratospheric water vapor is an important contributor to the observed strato ... Full text Cite

Chemistry-climate interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model: 1. Tropospheric chemistry model description and evaluation

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · April 27, 2001 A tropospheric chemistry model has been developed within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GCM) to study interactions between chemistry and climate change. The model uses simplified chemistry based on CO-NOx-HOx-Ox-CH4 and ... Full text Cite

Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to greenhouse gas, ozone, solar, and volcanic forcing

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · April 16, 2001 The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate-middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the indu ... Full text Cite

Climate and ozone response to increased stratospheric water vapor

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · April 15, 2001 Stratospheric water vapor abundance affects ozone, surface climate, and stratospheric temperatures. From 30-50 km altitude, temperatures show global decreases of 3-6 K over recent decades. These may be a proxy for water vapor increases, as the GISS climate ... Full text Cite

Origin and variability of upper tropospheric nitrogen oxides and ozone at northern mid-latitudes

Journal Article Atmospheric Environment · January 1, 2001 Year-long measurements of NOx and ozone performed during the NOXAR project are compared to results from the ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (E39/C) and GISS coupled chemistry-climate models. The measurements were taken on flights between Europe and the eastern United ... Full text Cite

The impact of greenhouse gases and halogenated species on future solar UV radiation doses

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · April 15, 2000 The future development of stratospheric ozone layer depends on the concentration of chlorine and bromine containing species. The stratosphere is also expected to be affected by future enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. These result in a cooling o ... Full text Cite

Effects of solar cycle variability on the lower stratosphere and the troposphere

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · November 27, 1999 The effects of solar irradiance variability on the lower stratosphere and the troposphere are investigated using observed and general circulation model (GCM)-generated 30 and 100 mbar geopotential heights. The GCM includes changes in UV input (+ or -5% at ... Full text Cite

Interannual variability of the Antarctic ozone hole in a GCM. Part II: A comparison of unforced and QBO-induced variability

Journal Article Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · June 15, 1999 Simulations were performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM including a prescribed quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), applied at a constant maximum value, and a physically realistic parameterization of the heterogeneous chemistry responsible ... Full text Cite

Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing

Journal Article Nature · June 3, 1999 The temperature of air at the Earth's surface has risen during the past century, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere ... Full text Cite

Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · April 1999 Results from a global climate model including an interactive parameterization of stratospheric chemistry show how upper stratospheric ozone changes may amplify observed, 11-year solar cycle irradiance changes to affect climate. In the model, circulation ch ... Full text Cite

Increased polar stratospheric ozone losses and delayed eventual recovery owing to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations

Journal Article Nature · April 9, 1998 The chemical reactions responsible for stratospheric ozone depletion are extremely sensitive to temperature. Greenhouse gases warm the Earth's surface but cool the stratosphere radiatively and therefore affect ozone depletion. Here we investigate the inter ... Full text Cite

Climate change and the middle atmosphere. Part IV: ozone response to doubled CO2

Journal Article Journal of Climate · January 1, 1998 Parameterized stratospheric ozone photochemistry has been included in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM to investigate the coupling between chemistry and climate change for the doubled CO2 climate. The chemical ozone response is of opposit ... Full text Cite

Climate change and the middle atmosphere. Part III: the doubled CO2 climate revisited

Journal Article Journal of Climate · January 1, 1998 The response of the troposphere-stratosphere system to doubled atmospheric CO2 is investigated in a series of experiments in which sea surface temperatures are allowed to adjust to radiation imbalances. The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global ... Full text Cite

Interannual variability of the antarctic ozone hole in a GCM. Part I: The influence of tropospheric wave variability

Journal Article Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · September 15, 1997 To study the interannual variability of the Antarctic ozone hole, a physically realistic parameterization of the chemistry responsible for severe polar ozone loss has been included in the GISS GCM. The ensuing ozone hole agrees well with observations, as d ... Full text Cite

Limits on heterogeneous processing in the Antarctic spring vortex from a comparison of measured and modeled chlorine

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 1997 Forty-day photochemical model runs are compared with ground-based stratospheric ClO observations taken during the austral spring of 1993. Our purpose is to explore the range of required heterogeneous processing within which we can reproduce the duration an ... Full text Cite

The potential influence of ClO·O2 on stratospheric ozone depletion chemistry

Journal Article Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry · January 1, 1997 The inability to explain the observed oxygen suppression of chlorine photosensitized ozone loss remains a gap in our understanding of the photochemistry responsible for depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. It has been suggested that the presence of ... Full text Cite

Validation of UARS Microwave Limb Sounder ClO measurements

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · April 30, 1996 Validation of stratospheric ClO measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is described. Credibility of the measurements is established by (1) the consistency of the measured ClO spectral emis ... Full text Cite

Chlorine monoxide in the Antarctic spring vortex 2. A comparison of measured and modeled diurnal cycling over McMurdo Station, 1993

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · January 1, 1996 We have derived chlorine monoxide (ClO) mixing ratio profiles within the Antarctic vortex on an hourly basis from ground-based measurements of pressure-broadened emission line spectra. This data set has provided the first opportunity for a detailed compari ... Full text Cite

The chlorine budget of the lower polar stratosphere: Upper limits on ClO, and Implications of new Cl2O2 photolysis cross sections

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · January 1, 1995 Chlorine catalytic chemistry, which destroys ozone while cycling chlorine between Cl, ClO, and Cl2O2, is the primary cause of the springtime Antarctic ozone hole. We have calculated the concentrations of Cl2O2 which are in equilibrium with midday ground‐ba ... Full text Cite

Chlorine monoxide in the Antarctic spring vortex 1. Evolution of midday vertical profiles over McMurdo Station, 1993

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 1, 1995 We have obtained a prolonged record of emission spectra from chlorine monoxide in the vicinity of McMurdo Station, Antarctica, during formation of the austral spring ozone hole of 1993. These spectra have been processed to obtain vertical mixing ratio prof ... Full text Cite

Stratospheric ClO profiles from McMurdo Station, Antarctica, spring 1992

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 1, 1995 Peak mixing ratios of 1.6 ± 0.3 ppbv were seen in mid-September at approximately 18 km altitude, suggestive of somewhat larger quantities than were measured at the same site and season in 1987. As the core of the polar vortex moved away from McMurdo by ear ... Full text Cite

mm-Wave spectroscopy of stratospheric trace gases at the South Pole over an 11-month cycle: O3, N2O, HNO3, NO2, and ClO

Conference International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS) · December 1, 1994 The authors have employed a ground-based, cryogenically cooled tunable heterodyne spectrometer operated near 275 GHz to make frequent quantitative measurements of various trace gases at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station over an 11 month period. An over ... Cite

Arctic chlorine monoxide observations during spring 1993 over Thule, Greenland, and implications for ozone depletion

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 1, 1994 The measurements show a weak lower stratospheric layer of chlorine monoxide inside the vortex in late February, which was, however, significantly greater in mixing ratio than that seen in observations we made in the spring of 1992. ClO was also observed in ... Full text Cite

N2O as an indicator of Arctic vortex dynamics: Correlations with O3 over Thule, Greenland in February and March, 1992

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · January 1, 1994 We have recovered vertical profiles of stratospheric N2O from spectra observed using a ground‐based mm‐wave spectrometer during the Arctic spring. The measurements were made from Thule, Greenland (76.3°N, 68.4°W) on nine occasions from late February to lat ... Full text Cite

An overview of millimeter‐wave spectroscopic measurements of chlorine monoxide at Thule, Greenland, February–March, 1992: Vertical profiles, diurnal variation, and longer‐term trends

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · January 1, 1994 Measurements of chlorine monoxide in the stratosphere over Thule, Greenland (76.3N, 68.4W) were made quasi‐continuously during the period February 8 to March 24, 1992, using a high‐sensitivity ground based mm‐wave spectrometer. These observations give diur ... Full text Cite

mm-Wave spectroscopy of stratospheric trace gases at the South Pole over an 11-month cycle: O3, N2O, HNO3, NO2, and ClO

Journal Article International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS) · 1994 The authors have employed a ground-based, cryogenically cooled tunable heterodyne spectrometer operated near 275 GHz to make frequent quantitative measurements of various trace gases at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station over an 11 month period. An over ... Cite