Drew Todd Shindell

Journal Article Earth's Future · November 1, 2024 Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of a ... Full text Cite

Continuous wildfires threaten public and ecosystem health under climate change across continents

Journal Article Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering · October 1, 2024 Wildfires burn approximately 3%–4% of the global land area annually, resulting in massive emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Over the past two decades, there has been a declining trend in both global burned area and wildfire emissions. This ... Full text Cite

Impact of Wildfire Smoke on Acute Illness.

Journal Article Anesthesiology · October 1, 2024 Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Ozone Mortality Burden Changes Driven by Population Aging and Regional Inequity in China in 2013-2050.

Journal Article GeoHealth · August 2024 Air pollution exposure is closely linked to population age and socioeconomic status. Population aging and imbalance in regional economy are thus anticipated to have important implications on ozone (O3)-related health impacts. Here we provide a d ... Full text Cite

Assessing acetone for the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth system model

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · May 2, 2024 Acetone is an abundant volatile organic compound (VOC) in the atmosphere, with important influences on ozone and oxidation capacity. Direct sources include chemical production from other VOCs and anthropogenic emissions, terrestrial vegetation, biomass-bur ... Full text Cite

Impacts of warming on outdoor worker well-being in the tropics and adaptation options

Journal Article One Earth · March 15, 2024 Over a billion outdoor workers live in the tropics, where nearly a fifth of all hours in the year are hot and humid enough to exceed recommended safety thresholds for workers conducting heavy labor. Reviews have focused on heat impacts on worker health, we ... Full text Open Access Cite

Improving consistency in estimating future health burdens from environmental risk factors: Case study for ambient air pollution.

Journal Article Environment international · March 2024 Future changes in exposure to risk factors should impact mortality rates and population. However, studies commonly use mortality rates and population projections developed exogenously to the health impact assessment model used to quantify future health bur ... Full text Cite

Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities.

Journal Article GeoHealth · January 2024 For the population of a given US city, the risk of premature death associated with heat exposure increases as temperatures rise, but risks in hotter cities are generally lower than in cooler cities at equivalent temperatures due to factors such as acclimat ... Full text Cite

Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · January 2024 Following a sustainable development pathway designed to keep warming below 2 °C will benefit human health. We quantify premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and heat exposures for China, South Asia, and t ... Full text Cite

The important role of African emissions reductions in projected local rainfall changes

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2023 Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change but emits a small portion of global greenhouse gases. Additionally, decarbonization might lead to a ‘climate penalty’ whereby reductions in cooling aerosols offset temperature benefits from CO2 reductions for s ... Full text Cite

Geophysical Uncertainties in Air Pollution Exposure and Benefits of Emissions Reductions for Global Health

Journal Article Earth's Future · September 1, 2023 Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution is associated with large-scale health consequences, but the ranges in estimates of global air pollution exposure and PM2.5-related global premature mortality remain understudied. Using four model/ob ... Full text Cite

The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions.

Journal Article Earth's future · September 2023 Atmospheric methane directly affects surface temperatures and indirectly affects ozone, impacting human welfare, the economy, and environment. The social cost of methane (SC-CH4) metric estimates the costs associated with an additional marginal ... Full text Cite

Arctic warming in response to regional aerosol emissions reductions

Journal Article Environmental Research: Climate · September 1, 2023 AbstractThis study examines the Arctic surface air temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions using three fully coupled chemistry–climate models: National Center for Atmospheric Research-C ... Full text Cite

Evaluating net life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensities from gas and coal at varying methane leakage rates

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · August 1, 2023 The net climate impact of gas and coal life-cycle emissions are highly dependent on methane leakage. Every molecule of methane leaked alters the climate advantage because methane warms the planet significantly more than CO2 over its decade-long lifetime. W ... Full text Cite

Higher Temperatures in Socially Vulnerable US Communities Increasingly Limit Safe Use of Electric Fans for Cooling.

Journal Article Geohealth · August 2023 As the globe warms, people will increasingly need affordable, safe methods to stay cool and minimize the worst health impacts of heat exposure. One of the cheapest cooling methods is electric fans. Recent research has recommended ambient air temperature th ... Full text Link to item Cite

Understanding Model-Observation Discrepancies in Satellite Retrievals of Atmospheric Temperature Using GISS ModelE

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · January 16, 2023 We examine multiple factors in the representation of satellite-retrieved atmospheric temperature diagnostics in historical simulations of climate change during the satellite era (specifically 1979–2021) using GISS ModelE contributions to the Coupled Model ... Full text Cite

Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios With GISS-E2.1

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · July 1, 2022 This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed ... Full text Cite

Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · May 2022 The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the c ... Full text Cite

Premature Deaths in Africa Due To Particulate Matter Under High and Low Warming Scenarios.

Journal Article GeoHealth · May 2022 Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can provide enormous public health benefits via improved air quality, especially in polluted areas. We use the latest state-of-the-art composition-climate model simulations to contrast human exposure to ... Full text Open Access Cite

Scientific data from precipitation driver response model intercomparison project.

Journal Article Scientific data · March 2022 This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been to enhance the scientific understand ... Full text Cite

Surface ozone impacts on major crop production in China from 2010 to 2017

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · February 25, 2022 Exposure to elevated surface ozone is damaging to crops. In this study, we performed an analysis of temporal and spatial distributions of relative yield losses (RYLs) attributable to surface ozone for major crops in China from 2010 to 2017, by applying AOT ... Full text Cite

Global assessment of oil and gas methane ultra-emitters.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · February 2022 Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a considerable contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not acc ... Full text Cite

Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · January 1, 2022 Humid heat impacts a large portion of the world's population that works outdoors. Previous studies have quantified humid heat impacts on labor productivity by relying on exposure response functions that are based on uncontrolled experiments under a limited ... Full text Open Access Cite

Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets.

Journal Article NPJ climate and atmospheric science · January 2022 Full text Cite

Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol pollution in South and East Asia induces increased summer precipitation over arid Central Asia.

Journal Article Communications earth & environment · January 2022 Precipitation has increased across the arid Central Asia region over recent decades. However, the underlying mechanisms of this trend are poorly understood. Here, we analyze multi-model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomp ... Full text Cite

Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world.

Journal Article Nature communications · December 2021 Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use r ... Full text Open Access Cite

Temporal and spatial distribution of health, labor, and crop benefits of climate change mitigation in the United States.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · November 2021 Societal benefits from climate change mitigation accrue via multiple pathways. We examine the US impacts of emission changes on several factors that are affected by both climate and air quality responses. Nationwide benefits through midcentury stem primari ... Full text Open Access Cite

Impacts of emission changes in China from 2010 to 2017 on domestic and intercontinental air quality and health effect

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 29, 2021 China has experienced dramatic changes in emissions since 2010, which accelerated following the implementation of the Clean Air Action program in 2013. These changes have resulted in significant air quality improvements that are reflected in observations f ... Full text Cite

Similar patterns of tropical precipitation and circulation changes under solar and greenhouse gas forcing

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · October 1, 2021 Theory and model evidence indicate a higher global hydrological sensitivity for the same amount of surface warming to solar as to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, but regional patterns are highly uncertain due to their dependence on circulation and dynamics. ... Full text Cite

Large uncertainties in global hydroxyl projections tied to fate of reactive nitrogen and carbon.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · October 2021 The hydroxyl radical (OH) sets the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere and, thus, profoundly affects the removal rate of pollutants and reactive greenhouse gases. While observationally derived constraints exist for global annual mean present-day OH abunda ... Full text Cite

Distinct surface response to black carbon aerosols

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · September 17, 2021 For the radiative impact of individual climate forcings, most previous studies focused on the global mean values at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and less attention has been paid to surface processes, especially for black carbon (BC) aerosols. In this s ... Full text Cite

Acting rapidly to deploy readily available methane mitigation measures by sector can immediately slow global warming

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · May 1, 2021 Methane mitigation is essential for addressing climate change, but the value of rapidly implementing available mitigation measures is not well understood. In this paper, we analyze the climate benefits of fast action to reduce methane emissions as compared ... Full text Cite

Exploration of the Global Burden of Dementia Attributable to PM2.5: What Do We Know Based on Current Evidence?

Journal Article GeoHealth · May 2021 Exposure to ambient PM2.5 pollution has been linked to multiple adverse health effects. Additional effects have been identified in the literature and there is a need to understand its potential role in high prevalence diseases. In response to re ... Full text Cite

Sensitivity of modeled Indian monsoon to Chinese and Indian aerosol emissions

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 9, 2021 The South Asian summer monsoon supplies over 80 % of India's precipitation. Industrialization over the past few decades has resulted in severe aerosol pollution in India. Understanding monsoonal sensitivity to aerosol emissions in general circulation model ... Full text Cite

Intercomparison of the representations of the atmospheric chemistry of pre-industrial methane and ozone in earth system and other global chemistry-transport models

Journal Article Atmospheric Environment · March 1, 2021 An intercomparison has been set up to study the representation of the atmospheric chemistry of the pre-industrial troposphere in earth system and other global tropospheric chemistry-transport models. The intercomparison employed a constrained box model and ... Full text Cite

Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change

Journal Article Climatic Change · February 1, 2021 Extreme heat is already occurring more frequently and with greater intensity, with this trend predicted to continue. Exposure to extreme heat causes labor supply declines, but studies to quantify the economic effects from future climate changes are limited ... Full text Cite

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS-E2.1

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · January 1, 2021 Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System Mode ... Full text Cite

Integrated assessment of global climate, air pollution, and dietary, malnutrition and obesity health impacts of food production and consumption between 2014 and 2018

Journal Article Environmental Research Communications · January 1, 2021 Agriculture accounts for approximately 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is simultaneously associated with impacts on human health through food consumption, and agricultural air pollutant emissions. These impacts are often quantified separately, a ... Full text Cite

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere—2. Validation of Large-Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · December 27, 2020 Here we examine the large-scale transport characteristics of the new “Middle Atmosphere” NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (E2.2). First, we evaluate the stratospheric transport circulation in historical atmosphere-only simulati ... Full text Cite

Historical total ozone radiative forcing derived from CMIP6 simulations

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2020 Radiative forcing (RF) time series for total ozone from 1850 up to the present day are calculated based on historical simulations of ozone from 10 climate models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, RF is ... Full text Cite

Development of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) tool to assess air quality and climate co-benefits: Application for Bangladesh.

Journal Article Environment international · December 2020 Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mit ... Full text Cite

The effect of rapid adjustments to halocarbons and N2O on radiative forcing

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2020 Rapid adjustments occur after initial perturbation of an external climate driver (e.g., CO2) and involve changes in, e.g. atmospheric temperature, water vapour and clouds, independent of sea surface temperature changes. Knowledge of such adjustments is nec ... Full text Cite

How aerosols and greenhouse gases influence the diurnal temperature range

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · November 12, 2020 The diurnal temperature range (DTR) (or difference between the maximum and minimum temperature within a day) is one of many climate parameters that affects health, agriculture and society. Understanding how DTR evolves under global warming is therefore cru ... Full text Cite

The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO₂ reduction beyond the Paris Commitment.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · November 2020 China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The "Beautiful China" strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 μg/m3 or below for an ... Full text Cite

Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions.

Journal Article Environmental health perspectives · November 2020 BackgroundModeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation a ... Full text Cite

Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone-Depleting Substances

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · October 28, 2020 We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averag ... Full text Cite

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 21, 2020 Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on the ASM remain elus ... Full text Cite

Air Quality Response in China Linked to the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Lockdown.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · October 2020 Efforts to stem the spread of COVID-19 in China hinged on severe restrictions to human movement starting 23 January 2020 in Wuhan and subsequently to other provinces. Here, we quantify the ancillary impacts on air pollution and human health using inverse e ... Full text Cite

Data from modeling in support of the Global Methane Assessment, UN Environment, 2020

Dataset · September 16, 2020 We focus our modeling on the response to 50% reductions in the anthropogenic increase in methane concentrations. A 50% value is chosen as that is large enough to give a clear signal over meteorological noise in the models and it is similar in magnitude to ... Full text Cite

GISS-E2.1: Configurations and Climatology.

Journal Article Journal of advances in modeling earth systems · August 2020 This paper describes the GISS-E2.1 contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). This model version differs from the predecessor model (GISS-E2) chiefly due to parameterization improvements to the atmospheric and ocean model c ... Full text Cite

Response of surface shortwave cloud radiative effect to greenhouse gases and aerosols and its impact on summer maximum temperature

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · July 16, 2020 Shortwave cloud radiative effects (SWCREs), defined as the difference of the shortwave radiative flux between all-sky and clear-sky conditions at the surface, have been reported to play an important role in influencing the Earth's energy budget and tempera ... Full text Cite

Call for comments: climate and clean air responses to covid-19.

Journal Article International journal of public health · June 2020 Full text Cite

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere—Model Structure, Climatology, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · May 27, 2020 We introduce a new climate model (GISS E2.2) that has been specially optimized for the middle atmosphere and whose output is being contributed to the CMIP6 archive. The top of the model is at a geopotential altitude of 89 km, and parameterizations of moist ... Full text Cite

Influences of Solar Forcing at Ultraviolet and Longer Wavelengths on Climate

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · April 16, 2020 Solar forcing has contributed minimally to modern global warming, but its role in decadal and regional climate change and the mechanisms underlying those impacts remain incompletely understood. Analyses of modern observations show inconsistent surface clim ... Full text Cite

The Effects of Heat Exposure on Human Mortality Throughout the United States.

Journal Article GeoHealth · April 2020 Exposure to high ambient temperatures is an important cause of avoidable, premature death that may become more prevalent under climate change. Though extensive epidemiological data are available in the United States, they are largely limited to select larg ... Full text Open Access Cite

Local and remote mean and extreme temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 12, 2020 The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three couple ... Full text Cite

Author Correction: Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur.

Journal Article Scientific reports · March 2020 An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. ... Full text Cite

Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · February 14, 2020 Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O3) is associated with a variety of impacts, including adverse humanhealth effects and reduced yields in commercial crops. Ground-level O3 concentrations for assessments are typically predicted using chemical transport ... Full text Cite

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.

Journal Article Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR · December 2019 Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation D ... Full text Cite

Observationally constrained aerosol–cloud semi-direct effects

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2019 Absorbing aerosols, like black carbon (BC), give rise to rapid adjustments, and the associated perturbation to the atmospheric temperature structure alters the cloud distribution. The level of scientific understanding of these rapid cloud adjustments—other ... Full text Cite

Air Pollution and Health - A Science-Policy Initiative.

Journal Article Annals of global health · December 2019 Air pollution is a major, preventable and manageable threat to people's health, well-being and the fulfillment of sustainable development. Air pollution is estimated to contribute to at least 5 million premature deaths each year across the world. No one re ... Full text Open Access Cite

Extreme wet and dry conditions affected differently by greenhouse gases and aerosols

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2019 Global warming due to greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols alter precipitation rates, but the influence on extreme precipitation by aerosols relative to greenhouse gases is still not well known. Here we use the simulations from the Precipitation Drive ... Full text Cite

Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 17, 2019 Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend ... Full text Cite

Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels.

Journal Article Nature · September 2019 The combustion of fossil fuels produces emissions of the long-lived greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and of short-lived pollutants, including sulfur dioxide, that contribute to the formation of atmospheric aerosols1. Atmospheric aerosols can cool t ... Full text Cite

Aligning evidence generation and use across health, development, and environment

Journal Article Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · August 1, 2019 Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development ... Full text Cite

Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · July 16, 2019 The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short-lived climate forcers, ... Full text Cite

Comparison of Effective Radiative Forcing Calculations Using Multiple Methods, Drivers, and Models

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · April 27, 2019 We compare six methods of estimating effective radiative forcing (ERF) using a set of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. This is the first multiforcing agent, multimodel evaluation of ERF values calculated using different methods. We demonstrate ... Full text Cite

Spatial Patterns of Crop Yield Change by Emitted Pollutant.

Journal Article Earth's future · February 2019 Field measurements and modeling have examined how temperature, precipitation, and exposure to carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone affect major staple crops around the world. Most prior studies, however, have incorporated only a subset of these influe ... Full text Cite

Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur.

Journal Article Scientific reports · January 2019 The profound changes in global SO2 emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Repro ... Full text Cite

Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding

Journal Article Journal of Climate · December 1, 2018 The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precip ... Full text Cite

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

Journal Article npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · December 1, 2018 We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled glo ... Full text Cite

Understanding Rapid Adjustments to Diverse Forcing Agents.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · November 2018 Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. ... Full text Cite

The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO2, CO2, and BC

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · October 31, 2018 Full text Cite

Peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements at northern midlatitude mountain sites in April: A constraint on continental source-receptor relationships

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 28, 2018 Abundance-based model evaluations with observations provide critical tests for the simulated mean state in models of intercontinental pollution transport, and under certain conditions may also offer constraints on model responses to emission changes. We co ... Full text Cite

Measurement-based assessment of health burdens from long-term ozone exposure in the United States, Europe, and China

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · October 11, 2018 Long-term ozone (O3) exposure estimates from chemical transport models are frequently paired with exposure-response relationships from epidemiological studies to estimate associated health burdens. Impact estimates using such methods can include biases fro ... Full text Cite

The need for policies to reduce the costs of cleaner cooking in low income settings: Implications from systematic analysis of costs and benefits

Journal Article Energy Policy · October 1, 2018 Inefficient household cooking in less-developed countries harms health and productivity, the environment, and the global climate. Interventions to encourage adoption of cleaner and more fuel-efficient stoves are being implemented widely to reduce these bur ... Full text Cite

Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · October 2018 Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heatin ... Full text Cite

Connecting regional aerosol emissions reductions to local and remote precipitation responses

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · August 28, 2018 The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-c ... Full text Cite

Sources of Black Carbon Deposition to the Himalayan Glaciers in Current and Future Climates.

Journal Article Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR · July 2018 WRF-Chem and a modified version of the ECLIPSE 5a emission inventory were used to investigate the sources impacting black carbon (BC) deposition to the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush (HKHK) region. This work extends previous studies by simulating depo ... Full text Cite

Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · June 15, 2018 Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

A PDRMIP multi-model study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation.

Journal Article Journal of climate · June 2018 Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation c ... Full text Cite

Implications of possible interpretations of 'greenhouse gas balance' in the Paris Agreement.

Journal Article Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · May 2018 The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C'. Article 4 points to this ... Full text Cite

Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.

Journal Article Nature communications · May 2018 Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts ... Full text Cite

Multimodel Surface Temperature Responses to Removal of U.S. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · March 16, 2018 Three Earth System models are used to derive surface temperature responses to removal of U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions. Using multicentury perturbation runs with and without U.S. anthropogenic SO2 emissions, the local and remote surface temperature chan ... Full text Cite

Carbon dioxide physiological forcing dominates projected Eastern Amazonian drying.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · March 2018 Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyse the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Blac ... Full text Cite

Author Correction: Short-lived climate pollutant mitigation and the Sustainable Development Goals

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · February 22, 2018 © 2018 The Author(s) In the version of this Perspective originally published, Fig. 1 incorrectly had two entries of ‘Reduced rate of sea-level rise by 20% by 2050’; the first entry (row 2, column 3) should instead have read ‘Reduced disruption of weather p ... Full text Cite

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions.

Journal Article Nature climate change · January 2018 Societal risks increase as Earth warms, but also for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate even if they lead to identical warming [1]. Accelerating carbon dio ... Full text Open Access Cite

Evaluating Modeled Impact Metrics for Human Health, Agriculture Growth, and Near-Term Climate

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · December 27, 2017 Simulated metrics that assess impacts on human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate were evaluated using ground-based and satellite observations. The NASA GISS ModelE2 and GEOS-Chem models were used to simulate the near-present chemistry of th ... Full text Cite

Short-lived climate pollutant mitigation and the Sustainable Development Goals

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · December 1, 2017 The post-2015 development agenda is dominated by a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that arose from the 2012 Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development. The 17 goals and 169 targets address diverse and intersecting aspects of hu ... Full text Cite

Multi-model impacts of climate change on pollution transport from global emission source regions

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · November 30, 2017 The impacts of climate change on tropospheric transport, diagnosed from a carbon monoxide (CO)-like tracer species emitted from global CO sources, are evaluated from an ensemble of four chemistry-climate models (CCMs) contributing to the Atmospheric Chemis ... Full text Cite

Erratum: Corrigendum: Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · November 2017 Full text Cite

Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.

Journal Article Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR · November 2017 We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a ... Full text Cite

Dominant control of agriculture and irrigation on urban heat island in India.

Journal Article Scientific reports · October 2017 As is true in many regions, India experiences surface Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect that is well understood, but the causes of the more recently discovered Urban Cool Island (UCI) effect remain poorly constrained. This raises questions about our fundament ... Full text Open Access Cite

FUTURE GLOBAL MORTALITY FROM CHANGES IN AIR POLLUTION ATTRIBUTABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE.

Journal Article Nature climate change · September 2017 Full text Cite

Large Reductions in Solar Energy Production Due to Dust and Particulate Air Pollution

Journal Article Environmental Science and Technology Letters · August 8, 2017 Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) has the potential to diminish solar energy production by direct and indirect radiative forcing as well as by being deposited on solar panel surfaces, thereby reducing solar energy transmittance to photovoltaics. Worldwid ... Full text Cite

The social cost of methane: theory and applications.

Journal Article Faraday discussions · August 2017 Methane emissions contribute to global warming, damage public health and reduce the yield of agricultural and forest ecosystems. Quantifying these damages to the planetary commons by calculating the social cost of methane (SCM) facilitates more comprehensi ... Full text Cite

The air we breathe: Past, present, and future: general discussion.

Journal Article Faraday discussions · August 2017 Full text Cite

Atmospheric chemistry and the biosphere: general discussion.

Journal Article Faraday discussions · August 2017 Full text Cite

Global atmospheric chemistry - Which air matters

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · July 27, 2017 An approach for analysis and modeling of global atmospheric chemistry is developed for application to measurements that provide a tropospheric climatology of those heterogeneously distributed, reactive species that control the loss of methane and the produ ... Full text Cite

PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results.

Journal Article Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · June 2017 As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally avera ... Full text Cite

A climate policy pathway for near- and long-term benefits.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · May 2017 Full text Cite

Multimodel precipitation responses to removal of U.S. sulfur dioxide emissions.

Journal Article Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR · May 2017 Emissions of aerosols and their precursors are declining due to policies enacted to protect human health, yet we currently lack a full understanding of the magnitude, spatiotemporal pattern, statistical significance, and physical mechanisms of precipitatio ... Full text Cite

Accounting for the climate–carbon feedback in emission metric

Journal Article Earth System Dynamics · April 10, 2017 Most emission metrics have previously been inconsistently estimated by including the climate–carbon feedback for the reference gas (i.e. CO2) but not the other species (e.g. CH4). In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, a first attempt was made t ... Full text Cite

Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990–2015

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · February 22, 2017 Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundan ... Full text Cite

AerChemMIP: Quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · February 9, 2017 The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifi ... Full text Cite

Agriculture production as a major driver of the earth system exceeding planetary boundaries

Journal Article Ecology and Society · January 1, 2017 We explore the role of agriculture in destabilizing the Earth system at the planetary scale, through examining nine planetary boundaries, or “safe limits”: land-system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical flows, biosphere integrity, climate change, ocean ... Full text Cite

Health and climate impacts of ocean-going vessels in East Asia

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · November 1, 2016 East Asia has the most rapidly growing shipping emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants, but the least in-depth analysis. Full evaluation of all pollutants is needed to assess the impacts of shipping emissions. Here, using an advanced method b ... Full text Cite

Modeling the QBO-Improvements resulting from higher-model vertical resolution.

Journal Article Journal of advances in modeling earth systems · September 2016 Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, it is shown that with proper choice of the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and relatively fine vertical layering of at least 500 m in the upper troposphere-lower ... Full text Open Access Cite

Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

Journal Article Earth System Dynamics · August 30, 2016 A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, ... Full text Cite

Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · August 4, 2016 We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the mo ... Full text Cite

Crop yield changes induced by emissions of individual climate-altering pollutants

Journal Article Earth's Future · August 1, 2016 Climate change damages agriculture, causing deteriorating food security and increased malnutrition. Many studies have examined the role of distinct physical processes, but impacts have not been previously attributed to individual pollutants. Using a simple ... Full text Cite

Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · April 28, 2016 We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 ... Full text Cite

Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °c

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · April 27, 2016 An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 °C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public heal ... Full text Open Access Cite

Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia.

Journal Article Geophysical research letters · April 2016 The effect of future climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia is evaluated using present-day (2000s) and future (2100s) hourly surface ozone simulated by four global models. Future climate follows RCP8.5, while methane and ... Full text Cite

Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study

Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters · March 28, 2016 Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have pertu ... Full text Cite

Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 17, 2016 Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, w ... Full text Cite

On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · March 4, 2016 Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined ... Full text Cite

Regional and global climate response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions · January 18, 2016 We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the mo ... Full text Cite

Seasonal cycles of O3 in the marine boundary layer: Observation and model simulation comparisons

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 16, 2016 We present a two-step approach for quantitatively comparing modeled and measured seasonal cycles of O3: (1) fitting sine functions to monthly averaged measurements and model results (i.e., deriving a Fourier series expansion of these results) and (2) compa ... Full text Cite

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble.

Journal Article Atmospheric chemistry and physics · January 2016 Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. ... Full text Cite

How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?

Journal Article Climatic Change · December 1, 2015 This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO2 gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been run with the same prescribed anthropogenic emi ... Full text Cite

Reduce short-lived climate pollutants for multiple benefits.

Journal Article Lancet (London, England) · November 2015 Full text Cite

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

Journal Article Environmental Research Letters · October 14, 2015 Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual ... Full text Cite

Impact of aerosol radiative effects on 2000–2010 surface temperatures

Journal Article Climate Dynamics · October 1, 2015 Aerosol radiative forcing from direct and indirect effects of aerosols is examined over the recent past (last 10–15 years) using updated sulfate aerosol emissions in two Earth System Models with very different surface temperature responses to aerosol forci ... Full text Cite

Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: The ozone response

Journal Article Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · October 1, 2015 A multiple linear regression statistical method is applied to model data taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5) to estimate the 11-year solar cycle responses of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and zonal wind during the 197 ... Full text Cite

Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry-climate modeling of surface ozone

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · September 25, 2015 We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × ... Full text Cite

On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions · September 2, 2015 Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined ... Full text Cite

Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: The stratospheric pathway

Journal Article Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · July 1, 2015 The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind a ... Full text Cite

The social cost of atmospheric release

Journal Article Climatic Change · May 1, 2015 I present a multi-impact economic valuation framework called the Social Cost of Atmospheric Release (SCAR) that extends the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) used previously for carbon dioxide (CO2) to a broader range of pollutants and impacts. Values consistent ... Full text Cite

Evaluation of the global aerosol microphysical ModelE2-TOMAS model against satellite and ground-based observations

Journal Article Geoscientific Model Development · March 20, 2015 The TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model has been integrated into the state-of-the-art general circulation model, GISS ModelE2. This paper provides a detailed description of the ModelE2-TOMAS model and evaluates the model against various ... Full text Cite

Declining uncertainty in transient climate response as CO2 forcing dominates future climate change

Journal Article Nature Geoscience · March 4, 2015 Carbon dioxide has exerted the largest portion of radiative forcing and surface temperature change over the industrial era, but other anthropogenic influences have also contributed. However, large uncertainties in total forcing make it difficult to derive ... Full text Cite

Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

Journal Article Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · March 1, 2015 © 2015. The Authors.We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101-2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a ne ... Full text Cite

Spatial patterns of radiative forcing and surface temperature response

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 1, 2015 Examination of effective radiative forcing (ERF), a measure of changes in Earth’s energy balance, facilitates understanding the role of various drivers of climate change. For short-lived compounds, ERF can be highly inhomogeneous geographically. The relati ... Full text Cite

Interannual variability of tropospheric trace gases and aerosols: The role of biomass burning emissions

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · January 1, 2015 Fires are responsible for a range of gaseous and aerosol emissions. However, their influence on the interannual variability of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols has not been systematically investigated from a global perspective. We examine biomass burni ... Full text Cite

Why does aerosol forcing control historical global-mean surface temperature change in CMIP5 models?

Journal Article Journal of Climate · January 1, 2015 Linear regression is used to examine the relationship between simulated changes in historical global-mean surface temperature (GMST) and global-mean aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) in 14 climate models from CMIP5. The models have global-mean aero ... Full text Cite

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · November 2014 Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are ... Full text Cite

Air pollution: clean up our skies.

Journal Article Nature · November 2014 Full text Cite

The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

Journal Article Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · October 15, 2014 This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and genera ... Full text Cite

Reply to 'Questions of bias in climate models'

Journal Article Nature Climate Change · September 11, 2014 Full text Cite

Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality

Journal Article Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health · September 1, 2014 Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic prima ... Full text Cite

Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · July 16, 2014 Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent vari ... Full text Cite

Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · May 16, 2014 Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models ... Full text Cite

Reply to comment by laprise on “The added value to global model projections of climate change by dynamical downscaling: A case study over the continental U.S. using the GISS-modele2 and WRF models”

Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research · April 16, 2014 Full text Cite