Journal ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · March 2017
This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a larg ...
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Chapter · January 1, 2017
Introduction In 2007, Michael Chertoff, then secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), characterized the task of the Department as follows: We have to identify and prioritize the risks – understanding the threat, the vulnerability and th ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · September 1, 2015
The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. This research, based on five empirical studies of important personally relevant decisions, examines the ability of decision makers to create alternatives for their important decisions and th ...
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ConferenceLecture Notes in Business Information Processing · January 1, 2015
Decision analysis is usually thought of as a model for decisions with a single decision-maker. Many attempts to extend decision analysis to group decisions have led to results indicating how it cannot be done. Other analyses, such as the well-known impossi ...
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Journal ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · September 2013
This article uses decision analysis concepts and techniques to address an extremely important problem to any family with children, namely, how to avoid the tragic death of a child during the high-risk ages of 15-24. Descriptively, our analysis indicates th ...
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Journal ArticleDecision Analysis · June 1, 2013
This paper derives a general prescriptive model for group decision analysis based on a set of logical and operational assumptions analogous to those for individual decision analysis. The approach accounts for each group member's potentially different frame ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of Public Policy and Marketing · January 1, 2013
The authors identify several judgmental biases related to paying off credit card debt. Participants with stronger numerical skills made fewer errors, as did those who used the new statement format mandated by Congress in the CARD Act of 2009. Study 1 shows ...
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Journal ArticlePesquisa Operacional · January 1, 2013
Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) provides a systematic approach to structure complex decisions for subsequent analysis. It is a powerful complement to decision analysis and its application has been growing in recent years. This paper discusses the application ...
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Chapter · December 6, 2012
This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. ...
Cite
Chapter · December 6, 2012
The job of regulators or legislators will be greatly facilitated if they are provided
with criteria to guide the evaluation of alternatives. What Principles Should
Govern Federal Reliance on Alternatives to Regulation for Managing Risk?
Within the ...
Cite
Journal ArticleDecision Analysis · December 1, 2012
Brainstorming can be a useful technique to create alternatives for complex decisions. To enhance the quality and innovativeness of the created alternatives, value-focused brainstorming incorporates two features of value-focused thinking into the traditiona ...
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Journal ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · September 2011
One of the most challenging tasks of homeland security policymakers is to allocate their limited resources to reduce terrorism risks cost effectively. To accomplish this task, it is useful to develop a comprehensive set of homeland security objectives, met ...
Full textCite
Journal ArticleJournal of Risk and Uncertainty · August 1, 2011
This paper presents a natural extension of Bayesian decision theory from the domain of individual decisions to the domain of group decisions. We assume that each group member accepts the assumptions of subjective expected utility theory with respect to the ...
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Chapter · June 2011
As modern MCDM started to emerge about 50 years ago, it is now a good time to take stock of developments. This book aims to present an informal, nontechnical history of MCDM, supplemented with many pictures. ...
Cite
Journal ArticleDecision Analysis · September 1, 2010
Real decision makers exhibit significant shortcomings in the generation of objectives for decisions that they face. Prior research has illustrated the magnitude of this shortcoming but not its causes. In this paper, we identify two distinct impediments to ...
Full textOpen AccessCite
Chapter · January 1, 2010
The authors explore how discoveries in decision sciences will enhance traditional ideas about economics and challenges the conventional wisdom about how to make the right decisions in an emerging new era, in a book that includes informative ... ...
Cite
Journal ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · March 2017
This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a larg ...
Full textCite
Chapter · January 1, 2017
Introduction In 2007, Michael Chertoff, then secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), characterized the task of the Department as follows: We have to identify and prioritize the risks – understanding the threat, the vulnerability and th ...
Full textCite
Journal ArticleOperations Research · September 1, 2015
The quality of alternatives is crucial for making good decisions. This research, based on five empirical studies of important personally relevant decisions, examines the ability of decision makers to create alternatives for their important decisions and th ...
Full textCite
ConferenceLecture Notes in Business Information Processing · January 1, 2015
Decision analysis is usually thought of as a model for decisions with a single decision-maker. Many attempts to extend decision analysis to group decisions have led to results indicating how it cannot be done. Other analyses, such as the well-known impossi ...
Full textCite
Journal ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · September 2013
This article uses decision analysis concepts and techniques to address an extremely important problem to any family with children, namely, how to avoid the tragic death of a child during the high-risk ages of 15-24. Descriptively, our analysis indicates th ...
Full textCite
Journal ArticleDecision Analysis · June 1, 2013
This paper derives a general prescriptive model for group decision analysis based on a set of logical and operational assumptions analogous to those for individual decision analysis. The approach accounts for each group member's potentially different frame ...
Full textCite
Journal ArticleJournal of Public Policy and Marketing · January 1, 2013
The authors identify several judgmental biases related to paying off credit card debt. Participants with stronger numerical skills made fewer errors, as did those who used the new statement format mandated by Congress in the CARD Act of 2009. Study 1 shows ...
Full textCite
Journal ArticlePesquisa Operacional · January 1, 2013
Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) provides a systematic approach to structure complex decisions for subsequent analysis. It is a powerful complement to decision analysis and its application has been growing in recent years. This paper discusses the application ...
Full textCite
Chapter · December 6, 2012
This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. ...
Cite
Chapter · December 6, 2012
The job of regulators or legislators will be greatly facilitated if they are provided
with criteria to guide the evaluation of alternatives. What Principles Should
Govern Federal Reliance on Alternatives to Regulation for Managing Risk?
Within the ...
Cite
Journal ArticleDecision Analysis · December 1, 2012
Brainstorming can be a useful technique to create alternatives for complex decisions. To enhance the quality and innovativeness of the created alternatives, value-focused brainstorming incorporates two features of value-focused thinking into the traditiona ...
Full textCite
Journal ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · September 2011
One of the most challenging tasks of homeland security policymakers is to allocate their limited resources to reduce terrorism risks cost effectively. To accomplish this task, it is useful to develop a comprehensive set of homeland security objectives, met ...
Full textCite
Journal ArticleJournal of Risk and Uncertainty · August 1, 2011
This paper presents a natural extension of Bayesian decision theory from the domain of individual decisions to the domain of group decisions. We assume that each group member accepts the assumptions of subjective expected utility theory with respect to the ...
Full textCite
Chapter · June 2011
As modern MCDM started to emerge about 50 years ago, it is now a good time to take stock of developments. This book aims to present an informal, nontechnical history of MCDM, supplemented with many pictures. ...
Cite
Journal ArticleDecision Analysis · September 1, 2010
Real decision makers exhibit significant shortcomings in the generation of objectives for decisions that they face. Prior research has illustrated the magnitude of this shortcoming but not its causes. In this paper, we identify two distinct impediments to ...
Full textOpen AccessCite
Chapter · January 1, 2010
The authors explore how discoveries in decision sciences will enhance traditional ideas about economics and challenges the conventional wisdom about how to make the right decisions in an emerging new era, in a book that includes informative ... ...
Cite
Chapter · February 11, 2009
This volume serves the multiple purposes of honoring Peter Fishburn's contributions, providing both expository and new papers from leading figures in each of the areas of Fishburn's research, and putting into one volume a wide variety of ... ...
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Journal ArticleMarketing Letters · December 1, 2008
This paper extends the familiar multi-stage framework for choice by explicitly describing the role that goals play at each stage. We first present a typology of goals, ranging from content to process and from immediate to long-term illustrating it in the c ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · November 1, 2008
This paper analyzes the relationships between personal decisions and premature deaths in the United States. The analysis indicates that over one million of the 2.4 million deaths in 2000 can be attributed to personal decisions and could have been avoided i ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · May 1, 2008
Seasonal products have an effective inventory deadline, a time by which the inventory must be ready to distribute. The deadline creates an incentive to start early with production. However, opportunities to gather information that might change production d ...
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Journal ArticleMilitary Operations Research · January 1, 2008
Decisions are made with the purpose of achieving something, which is defined by the values for the given decision. Objectives specify those values in detail. Value-focused thinking is designed to keep your attention throughout the decision process on what ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · January 1, 2008
Objectives have long been considered a basis for sound decision making. This research examines the ability of decision makers to generate self-relevant objectives for consequential decisions. In three empirical studies, participants consistently omitted ne ...
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Journal Article · September 2007
The decisions of if and when to have a first child are very important for any woman or couple. This paper develops a model to examine when a woman should begin trying to conceive, which depends on the personal circumstances and values of each woman. The mo ...
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Chapter · July 23, 2007
This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. ...
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Chapter · July 23, 2007
This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. ...
Cite
Journal ArticleRisk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · June 2007
Decisions are made to achieve objectives. A qualitative list of the objectives for a decision is the foundation for a value model that unambiguously represents objectives in a quantitative manner. The objectives guide thinking and the value model provides ...
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Chapter · January 1, 2007
Many complex decision problems require value judgments, and it is often useful to build formal models of these value judgments. Several models and assessment procedures exist for this task ranging from simple rating and weighting techniques to sophisticate ...
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Chapter · January 1, 2007
The fundamental objectives of any decision problem should define why the decision maker is interested in that decision. However, listing a complete set of the fundamental objectives for a decision is not a simple task. It requires creativity, time, some ha ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · September 1, 2006
This paper describes a decision analysis methodology to evaluate academic programs. It avoids the shortcomings of the well-known evaluations of universities and academic programs produced by the public media. In addition to evaluating traditional departmen ...
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Journal ArticleInternational Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making · 2006
To solve or resolve public policy problems requires decisions. The intent is to choose the best alternative in each situation. Hence, the way the notion of best is defined and measured in each case is critical. A structured process is outlined to acquire k ...
Cite
Journal ArticleInternational Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making · January 1, 2006
To solve or resolve public policy problems requires decisions. The intent is to choose the best alternative in each situation. Hence, the way the notion of best is defined and measured in each case is critical. A structured process is outlined to acquire k ...
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Journal ArticleHarvard Business Review · January 1, 2006
Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made-the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighed. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decisi ...
Cite
Journal ArticleInternational Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making · 2006
To solve or resolve public policy problems requires decisions. The intent is to choose the best alternative in each situation. Hence, the way the notion of best is defined and measured in each case is critical. A structured process is outlined to acquire k ...
Cite
Journal ArticleManagement Science · September 1, 2005
In this paper we develop a conceptual framework and model for valuing risks to an individual's health and life and to support decision making about investments in health, quality of life, and safety. Our treatment of health risks in the model builds on the ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of the Operational Research Society · January 1, 2005
With the many possible designs that a financial company can offer to a consumer (eg terms, price, quality, features), a company can identify win-win products for both the consumer and the company. A key to identifying win-win products is to explicitly inte ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · January 1, 2005
The foundation for any decision is a clear statement of objectives. Attributes clarify the meaning of each objective and are required to measure the consequences of different alternatives. Unfortunately, insufficient thought typically is given to the choic ...
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Journal ArticleDecision Analysis · December 2004
Decision analysis has been used to help solve numerous complex decisions over the last few decades. However, its power as a basis for structuring one's thinking to resolve decisions has barely been tapped. To realize this potential, we in the deci ...
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Journal ArticleIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews · November 1, 2004
This paper presents and illustrates an approach and procedures to stimulate the creation of design alternatives. The purpose is to generate many very good alternatives for a specific new product. Subsequently, a comparative evaluation of these alternatives ...
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Journal ArticleDecision Analysis · June 2004
Clear communication is important for making good decisions and for teaching people how to make better decisions. Decision analysts have special concepts with terms unfamiliar to most decision makers. Hence, in communicating about decisions, it is ...
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Chapter · 2004
This unique collection of recent papers, with comments by experts in the field, provides excellent coverage of recent developments, advances and sims in credit scoring. ...
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Journal ArticleInternational Journal of Technology, Policy and Management · January 1, 2004
To solve or resolve public policy problems requires decisions. The intent is to choose the best alternatives. The way that the notion of best is defined and measured in each case is critical. A structured process is outlined to elicit and measure the conse ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of the American Water Resources Association · January 1, 2002
This paper outlines a sound, practical approach for making more informed decisions about environmental policy choices. It emphasizes the importance of using a structured decision process to specify and organize values, use these values to create alternativ ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · January 1, 2002
Value trade-offs define how much must be gained in the achievement of one objective to compensate for a lesser achievement on a different objective. Value trade-offs that adequately express a decision maker's values are essential both for good decision mak ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 2001
The potential impacts from climate change, and climate change policies, are massive. Careful thinking about what we want climate change policies to achieve is a crucial first step for analysts to help governments make wise policy choices to address these c ...
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Journal ArticleIEEE Transactions on Engineering Management · 2001
All decisions are made to pursue the values important to an organization. It is more likely that these values will be achieved if they are made explicit in an understandable and useful way. This paper presents details and examples of how to build a value m ...
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Chapter · May 26, 2000
A variety of techniques have been proposed for solving multiple criteria decision-making problems. The emphasis and style of the different techniques largely reflect the fields of expertise of their developers. ...
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Chapter · February 28, 1999
Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1999
British Columbia Gas, a major utility, was required by the British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) to develop an integrated resource plan that addressed multiple objectives and involved the participation of stakeholders. To assist BC Gas, we elicited ...
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Journal ArticleInterfaces · 1999
Seagate Software provides tools and applications for managing and accessing information. In 1995, Seagate Technology began building the company using a strategy of acquiring software companies with synergistic products for information, network, and storage ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · 1999
Internet commerce has the potential to offer customers a better deal compared to purchases by conventional methods in many situations. To make this potential a reality, businesses must focus on the values of their customers. We interviewed over one-hundred ...
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Journal ArticleIEEE Spectrum · 1999
For an engineer, the ability to make smart choices is a fundamental professional and personal skill. Making smart choices is a skill worth honing. Treating decision-making like any other skill is a key to making smart choices a habit. Each of the elements ...
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Journal ArticleIIE Solutions · 1999
Making good decisions is a key to the success of every industrial engineer. To make good decisions, an engineer should start by sharpening his objectives and delving into alternatives. This report details the elements of decision-making. These elements are ...
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Journal ArticleClinical Leadership and Management Review · 1999
Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made - the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighed. But sometimes the fault lies not in the deci ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · December 1, 1998
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addre ...
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Chapter · July 27, 1998
With over 200 contributing authors, The Technology Management Handbook informs and assists the more than 1.5 million engineering managers in the practice of technical management. ...
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Journal ArticleHarvard business review · 1998
Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighted. But sometimes the fault lies not in the deci ...
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Journal ArticleHarvard business review · 1998
Making wise trade-offs is one of the most important and difficult challenges in decision making. Needless to say, the more alternative you're considering and the more objectives you're pursuing, the more trade-offs you'll need to make. The sheer volume of ...
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Journal ArticleProceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics · 1998
All decisions of a service firm are made to achieve the objectives of that organization. It is more likely that these objectives will be achieved if they are made explicit in an understandable and useful way. This paper outlines how to build a value model ...
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Journal ArticleIEEE Transactions on Engineering Management · 1997
A moratorium on new electricity transmission lines has been proposed in several states because of the potential health effects of electromagnetic fields. Such a policy would remain in effect until health effects are either found to be insignificant or unde ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of Risk and Uncertainty · 1997
Regulatory costs are paid by individuals, which leaves them with less disposable income. Since individuals on average use additional income to make their lives safer and healthier, the regulatory costs lead to higher mortality risks and fatalities. Based o ...
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Chapter · 1996
Experts in economics, psychology, statistics, and decision theory explore the question of how to make wise choices that improve the welfare of individuals and society ...
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Journal ArticleEuropean Journal of Operational Research · 1996
Conventional approaches to decisionmaking focus on alternatives. However, alternatives are relevant only because they are means to achieve values. Therefore, thinking about decision situations should begin with values. Value-focused thinking describes and ...
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Journal ArticleWater Resources Bulletin · 1996
This paper uses the fundamental values of decision makers to guide a long-term wastewater planning process at Seattle Metro, a major utility district. Multiattribute value assessment is used to elicit the objectives of several elected officials and other k ...
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Journal ArticleAnnals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science · 1996
Values, meaning what we care to achieve, are essential to risk management. Understanding the relevant values is critical to making good decisions about risks. Thus values should be made explicit. Conceptual ideas and a few practical suggestions for buildin ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1995
Modern science and medicine, and increasing prosperity, have brought many benefits to our society, but not without costs. One cost is that some of the technological innovations and new activities bring with them different and perhaps greater risks that thr ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1995
This paper employs multiattribute value assessment and risk analysis to evaluate the benefits of four alternatives to improve electrical system reliability in British Columbia. A multiattribute value model is constructed as a cost-equivalent function, base ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · October 1994
Values pervade the field of operations research. Expressed as objectives, goals, criteria, performance measures, and/or objective functions, they are necessary in theoretical operations research models and in applications. Because of their critica ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · 1994
Choices that require multiple stakeholders to balance conflicting objectives are among today's most controversial decisions. Although many techniques exist for helping decision makers to select among projects, little attention has been given to processes f ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1994
National strategies to manage nuclear waste from commercial nuclear power plants are analyzed and compared. The current strategy is to try to operate a repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, to dispose of high-level nuclear waste underground. The main alter ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of Risk and Uncertainty · 1994
Regulatory costs are ultimately paid for by the individuals in our society. The reduction in disposable income can lead to changes in purchasing, such as for safety and health care; stress, such as from job loss; and behavior, such as smoking or alcohol co ...
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Journal ArticleSocio-Economic Planning Sciences · 1994
The implications of global climate change are enormous. However, there are major questions concerning whether climate change is occurring. If it is, subsequent questions should consider when and how the changes will affect society. There are numerous possi ...
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Journal ArticleInterfaces · December 1992
Clarity of the basic values of an organization will become increasingly important as organizations grapple with increasingly complex decisions in the 1990s. To structure and quantify basic values of the British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, ...
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Chapter · October 31, 1992
The next section of the book looks at the relation between gneralized utility theories and the data they are intended to explain. A final section contains an evaluative discussion that weaves the themes of the book together. ...
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Chapter · 1991
The book has been carefully designed and edited to provide a challenging but accessible source of guidance and understanding for readers familiar with introductory theory who wish to deepen their knowledge and to grasp ideas that relate ... ...
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Journal ArticleNuclear Engineering and Design · 1991
The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, "Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants", is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation trai ...
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Journal ArticleIEEE Transactions on Engineering Management · 1991
A formal elicitation process is summarized to obtain probabilities from experts in a large-scale study involving nuclear safety. A first expert elicitation, using primarily in-house experts and staff members of the project team was strongly criticized in p ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1991
A conceptual framework is developed for the prescriptive evaluation of health and safety risks to an individual. This framework allows one to compare chronic vs. acute health risks, accidents vs. illness, and physical vs. psychological impacts. To do this, ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · September 1990
Several approaches exist to illuminate and clarify public values relevant for making public policy decisions. These include surveys, indirect and direct value elicitation, focus groups and public involvement. This paper describes a new approach, c ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1990
Existing evidence shows that lower incomes are associated with higher mortality risks. This paper examines the implications for fatalities when the relationship is interpreted as an induced relationship, meaning that lower incomes will on average lead to h ...
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Journal ArticleIEEE Transactions on Engineering Management · 1989
The authors place in perspective the role and uses of expert judgment in examining complex technical and engineering problems. Specifically, they indicate how expert judgements are usually used in analyzing technical problems, how to improve the use of exp ...
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Journal ArticleMathematical and Computer Modelling · 1989
To achieve a set of objectives, whether they are made explicit or not, is the entire intent of decisionmaking. When they are explicitly stated, the objectives are often quantified with an objective function. Because of its critical role for decisionmaking, ...
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Journal ArticleDecision Support Systems · 1988
Values are an inherent part of all decision processes. Hence, values are at least implicity included in all expert systems intended for decision support. This paper outlines the concepts and methodology, which are based on the principles and procedures of ...
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Journal ArticleEuropean Journal of Operational Research · 1988
To achieve a set of objectives, whether they are made explicit or not, is the entire intent of decisionmaking. When they are explicitly stated, the objectives are often quantified with an objective function. Because of its critical role for decisionmaking, ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1988
This paper outlines and illustrates a procedure to constructively involve stakeholders in the process of identifying these objectives. The illustration concerns the evaluation of alternatives to ship spent nuclear fuel from power plants to a repository. Ob ...
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Journal ArticleReliability Engineering and System Safety · 1988
The role of explicitly quantifying expert judgment for use in examining complex technical and engineering problems is placed in perspective. We discuss how expert judgments are usually used in analyzing technical problems, how the use of expert judgement s ...
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Journal Article · 1988
The author argues that modern science, medicine, and improving prosperity have brought many benefits to our society, but not without costs. One significant concern is that they are imposing novel and perhaps greater life-threatening risks to individuals wi ...
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Journal ArticleEnergy Policy · 1987
For this article a comprehensive and politically legitimate list of criteria to evaluate energy systems was constructed from interviews with leading representatives of a broad spectrum of West German society. In the interviews, we probed the fundamental va ...
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Journal ArticleThe Journal of Product Innovation Management · 1987
Increasingly, the design of successful new industrial products is related to careful market assessment. Traditionally, managers and researchers have studied their markets by examining a small number of product attributes that are common across a range of i ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1987
The U. S. Department of Energy has selected three sites, from five nominated, to characterize for a nuclear repository to permanently dispose of nuclear waste. This decision was made without the benefit of an analysis of this 'portfolio' problem. This pape ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1987
Five potential sites nominated for the Nation's first geologic repository for disposing of nuclear waste are evaluated using multiattribute utility analysis. The analysis was designed to aid the Department of Energy in its selection of 3 sites for characte ...
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Journal ArticleInterfaces · December 1986
Health and safety regulations are usually evaluated in terms of their expected health benefits. However, regulations can have unintended side effects, and in some instances, possibly produce adverse health effects that are more severe than those i ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1986
This paper explores reasons for difficulties in communicating risks among analysts, the laypublic, media, and regulators. Formulating risk communication problems as decisions involving objectives and alternatives helps to identify strategies for overcoming ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1986
The Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE) must select a strategy for adding 600 megawatts of electric generating capacity at the Perryman site near Baltimore to come on-line in the 1990s. This paper reports an analysis that evaluates strategies involvin ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · January 1, 1985
This paper defines a concept of ex ante risk equity to address the equity of the process and distinguishes this concept from the ex post risk equity of the fatalities. The paper indicates that an analyis of decision strategies addresses ex ante equity. In ...
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Journal ArticleIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics · January 1, 1985
An April 1984 workshop on research directions was sponsored by the Decision and Management Science Program of the National Science Foundation at the University of Texas at Dallas. One session concerned the relationship of research to phenomena in decisionm ...
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Journal ArticleInterfaces · 1985
To analyze alternatives for regulating airborne radionuclide emissions from coal-fired power plants, a model was developed to provide information about (1) the quantity of radionuclides emitted by a specific power plant, (2) the resulting radiation dose to ...
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Journal ArticleEnvironmental impact assessment, technology assessment, and risk analysis. Proc., Les Arcs, 1983 · 1985
Gives a short survey of previous work on evaluating public fatalities, and focuses on some recent results relying on explicit approaches to quantify value judgments. Different assumptions are investigated, and the implications of those assumptions are pres ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1984
In any analysis of a decision problem involving public risks, ethical implications are introduced. In some cases, these ethical implications may be introduced simply because an analysis is being done. Additional ethical implications may be inherently part ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · January 1, 1984
A risk assessment model is developed to relate adverse health effects to alternative carbon monoxide standards. The analysis requires information in the form of available data and expert judgments concerning factors such as ambient CO level, human exposure ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research Letters · 1984
Public von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions are constructed using assumptions about individual and subgroup sovereignty and equality of individuals. These public utility functions require knowledge of one value parameter about equity and the average o ...
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Journal ArticleInterfaces (Providence, Rhode Island) · 1983
When the consequences of a decision affect the public, for example, in nuclear power plant design and construction, standards are set to promote decision making in the public interest. The interrelationship of standards, their possible impacts, and the pub ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · 1983
This paper illustrates an application of the concepts of multiattribute utility assessment, based on the professional judgments of one physician, to scale the trauma severity of injuries to individuals. Special attention is given to problems not usually pr ...
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Journal ArticleAdvances in Psychology · 1983
This paper investigates the implications of various value judgments on the evaluation of public mortality risks. Using utility functions to quantify values indicates the mutual inconsistency of three reasonable goals: minimize the expected number of fatali ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1983
The technology choices facing an individual utility are complex decision problems. This study illustrates a method designed to assist an individual utility company in making these choices in a logically consistent manner. The resulting evaluation model, ba ...
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Journal ArticleDecision Sciences · October 1982
Robert L. Winkler's paper [1] provides a comprehensive overview of challenging research areas for decision making under uncertainty. Hence, rather than try to extend the list of research areas identified, this note will attempt to embellish some th ...
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Journal ArticleIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics · 1982
The development of a function for examining the effects of nuclear regulations on the operators of nuclear facilities is described. Specifically, an objective function is developed for evaluating material control and accounting regulations. The first step ...
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Journal ArticleOPER RES · 1982
A DESCRIPTION IS GIVEN OF WHAT DECISION ANALYSIS IS, WHAT IT CAN AND CANNOT DO, WHY ONE SHOULD CARE TO DO THIS, AND HOWONE DOES IT. TO ACCOMPLISH THESE PURPOSES, IT IS NECESSARY FIRST TO DESCRIBE THE DECISION ENVIRONMENT. AN OVERVIEW IS ALSO PRESENTED OF D ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of the Operational Research Society · 1982
This study demonstrates the use of decision analysis for setting primary national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS), given the legal, policy and resource constraints of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). An application of decision analysis for ...
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Journal ArticleElectric Power Research Institute (Report) EPRI EA · 1981
The technology choices facing an individual utility are extremely complex decision problems. The purpose of this report is to provide and document a method designed to assist the utility industry in making these choices in a logically consistent manner. Th ...
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Journal ArticleRisk Analysis · 1981
The basic characteristics of determining acceptable risk are discussed. Technical, political, and social aspects of the problem add much complexity. The appropriate manner to reach responsible decisions regarding acceptable risk is suggested. This explicit ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1981
In decision problems there are often preference dependencies for the achievement of various objectives. This study suggests a problem-oriented approach to address such preference dependencies. First, a diagnostic analysis is conducted to identify the basis ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · June 1980
Possible fatalities to members of the public are defined in this paper as public risk. Given other things are equal, such as the benefits to individuals in society, there may be a preference for an equitable balancing of individual risks. This con ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · April 1980
With many large-scale projects, such as power plants, some members of the public will necessarily incur a risk. Public fatalities may result from either normal operations (e.g., via pollution) or accidents. Often in such cases, a small group of th ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · February 1980
A critical aspect of many major decisions involves the possible loss of human life. Thus, in evaluating the alternatives, it is desirable to address this issue. This paper proposes a cardinal utility model for evaluating the potential fatalities a ...
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Journal ArticleProceedings of the Symposium on Waste Management · 1980
This paper presents a definition of acceptable risk and explains how decision analysis could be used to determine ″How safe is safe enough?″ Practical limitations to the potential of decision analysis are then summarized. It discusses acceptable risk as a ...
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Journal ArticleTransportation · 1979
This study was performed as part of a feasibility study of using steam from an uncontrolled steam well in the area of the Geysers, California, to run a 5-Mw power plant. Near the site are three major active faults. ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1979
Screening models and on-site visits by a team composed of engineers, geologists, and biologists were used to identify 10 sites in the Southwest of the USA suitable for developing a pumped storage facility with a 600 MW capacity. This paper discusses the de ...
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Journal ArticleManage Sci · 1979
A procedure is presented to evaluate the appropriateness of alternative methodologies for analyzing a specified problem. This procedure is illustrated by identifying desirable characteristics of nuclear power plant site selection methodologies and evaluati ...
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Journal Article · 1978
The problem of decision making with multiple objectives is very complex. The decision analysis approach to address this problem is discussed. Independence properties concerning values are defined. The implications such properties have for a mathematical re ...
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Journal ArticleTECHNOL. REV. · 1978
The La Salle Terminal for receiving and vaporizing liquefied natural gas from Algeria would be built by the El Paso LNG Co., between Galveston and Corpus Christi, Texas. To reach it, LNG carriers would enter the Matagorda ship channel from the Gulf of Mexi ...
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Journal ArticleEnergy Syst Policy · 1978
A convenient framework based on multiattribute decision analysis is presented to help a decision-maker evaluate energy/environmental alternatives. The resulting composite model, which indicates the degree to which each of a set of objectives is met by any ...
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Chapter · 1977
Multicriterion decision problems; Partial preference analysis and decision-aid: the fuzzy outranking relation concepts; A research project on multicriterion decision making; Use of vector optimization in multiobjective decision making; ... ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada · January 1, 1977
The interests of many groups, some with multiple objectives, are important to include in evaluating strategies affecting salmon in the Skeena River. A multiattribute utility model is proposed for addressing these issues. Two first-cut utility func ...
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Journal ArticleEnergy Policy · 1977
This study identifies suitable additional future sites for nuclear power generating facilities of 3000 MW capacity in the state of Washington and parts of Oregon and Idaho. A series of screening models was used to identify nine specific sites for evaluatio ...
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Journal ArticleWater Resources Research · 1977
Selecting a plan to develop the water resources of a region involves the consideration of economic, environmental, social, and technical objectives. Twelve attributes are defined to indicate the degree to which such objectives are achieved in the Tisza Riv ...
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Journal ArticleOrganizational Behavior and Human Performance · 1977
Multiattribute utility theory is appropriate for developing preference models to address value trade-offs among multiple objectives and uncertainty in complex problems. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate by an example how one puts the theory into p ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of Environmental Economics and Management · 1977
The applicability of decision analysis for assessing, evaluating, and reporting possible environmental impacts of proposed large-scale projects is illustrated. A study concerning the ecological impacts of constructing and operating nuclear power facilities ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · 1976
Given a group composed of N individuals and given that each has rated all of the alternatives using a cardinal utility function, the problem is to aggregate these to obtain a group cardinal utility function for evaluating each alternative. The cardinal uti ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · 1975
This paper addresses the problem of constructing a group cardinal social welfare function whose arguments are the individual utility functions of group members. Representation theorems are given which show that the social welfare function is restricted to ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1975
This paper introduces the concept of generalized utility independence. Subject to various generalized utility independence assumptions, three functional forms for a multiattribute von J. V. Neumann-O. Morgenstern utility function u are derived. These are t ...
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Journal ArticleProceedings of the IEEE · 1975
THe necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. Along with the relatively ...
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Journal ArticleJournal of Mathematical Psychology · 1974
This paper examines seven independence concepts based on a preference relation on the set of simple probability measures defined on a set of multiattribute consequences. Three of the independence relations involve gambles and the other four are based on ri ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · 1974
The paper presents sufficient conditions for a multiattribute utility function to be either multiplicative or additive. Procedures are given for verifying the assumptions and assessing the resulting utility functions. The paper concludes with a sketch of a ...
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Journal ArticleTransportation Research · 1973
This paper outlines the potential role of multiattribute decision analysis to the evaluation of transportation systems. Based upon recent developments which now permit the operational assessment of multiattribute utility functions, a theoretical base for t ...
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Journal ArticleBell J Econ Manage Sci · 1973
Results of an analysis done for the Secretaria de Obras Publicas (Ministry of Public Works) of Mexico to help select the most ″effective″ strategy for developing the airport facilities of the Mexico City metropolitan area to insure quality air service for ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · June 1972
A problem shared by many municipal agencies and many large industries is: Given n service facilities whose locations have been set in a region, how should that region best be apportioned among the facilities if each facility is to have primary res ...
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Chapter · January 1972
This book presents leading recent studies on the application of formal modeling for improved delivery of public services. ...
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Chapter · January 1972
This book presents leading recent studies on the application of formal modeling for improved delivery of public services. ...
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Chapter · January 1972
This book presents leading recent studies on the application of formal modeling for improved delivery of public services. ...
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Journal ArticleManagement Science · January 1972
One of the important methodological problems concerning the application of decision analysis to complex problems is the restrictiveness of existing techniques for systematically assessing multiattributed utility functions valid for decision making ...
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Journal ArticleSloan Manage Rev · 1972
The method is illustrated using a two attribute example by quantifying the preferences of a decision maker who does the inventory ordering of whole blood at a particular hospital blood bank. By verifying and then exploiting some general characteristics of ...
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Journal ArticleOperations Research · August 1971
This paper introduces and defines the concept of utility independence, and derives general expressions for simplifying the assessment of multiattribute utility functions, given that certain utility independence assumptions hold. These results are ...
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Journal ArticleScience · 1970
Operational assumptions are made concerning the preferences of a decision maker. Functional forms of multiattribute utility functions that satisfy these assumptions are stated. These forms provide operational methods for assessing preferences over multiatt ...
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